The Vuelta a Espana has a reputation as a revenge race for riders that have had little success in the first part of the season. This year some of the world’s biggest stars have been plagued by bad luck and while most of the cycling world lamented Chris Froome’s and Alberto Contador’s crashes in the Tour de France and Joaquim Rodriguez’  crash in the Giro d’Italia, Vuelta director Javier Guillen may have had a hard time hiding his satisfaction. This year the Vuelta can probably field the strongest line-up of all the grand tours and even though the main contenders may not all have had the perfect preparation, all is set for a big showdown that includes most of the grand tour winners among the current professionals. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

Most of the cycling world was left disappointed when Joaquim Rodriguez crashed out of the Giro, leaving the rest of the Italian grand tour to be an almost ceremonial ride for Nairo Quintana. The disappointment was even bigger when Chris Froome and Alberto Contador both abandoned the Tour de France, thus cancelling what had been described as the greatest duel for years.

 

Luckily the cycling calendar offers a great chance for revenge. The Vuelta a Espana is the perfect opportunity to salvage a disappointing season and this year several riders have lots at stake. With Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Ryder Hesjedal, Chris Horner and Cadel Evans all on the start line, most of the grand tour champions will line up at the race and if one adds the likes of Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin, Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sanchez, Wilco Kelderman, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rigoberto Uran and Robert Gesink, it is evident that the Vuelta can field one of the strongest line-ups in recent years.

 

Contador may not be in a condition that allows him to fight for the overall win but Froome, Quintana and Rodriguez have all made it clear that they line up in Spain with the clear goal of winning the race overall. Horner claims to be stronger than he was when he took a surprise win 12 months ago and Valverde has a formidable track record in the Vuelta where he hasn’t finished outside the top 5 since 2003. Talansky is ready to take revenge from a disappointing Tour and his teammate Martin is keen to make up for a poor Giro. Kelderman, Uran, Aru, Evans and Hesjedal have all recovered from their Giro exploits while Gesink will be keen to show that he is back to his best after his heart surgery.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the  1-star riders that may finish on the podium if everything goes their way.

 

Alberto Contador (*)

It almost seems absurd to list the most decorated grand tour rider of his generation as just an outsider for a three-week race that has always been one of his big season objectives. This time, however, Contador lines up at the Vuelta a Espana with a preparation that is vastly different from the meticulous build-up that has usually allowed him to line up in the biggest races in peak condition.

 

Already during last year’s edition of the Spanish race, Contador made it clear that he intended to return to his home race in 2014 and that he would target a maiden Tour-Vuelta double. However, things have not gone according to plan for Contador and even though he has defied expectations by making it to the start, he will enter the race with an unusual objective.

 

Contador has done 11 grand tours but for the first time since his three-week debut in the 2005 Tour de France he goes into one of the major stage races without a focus on GC. His horrific crash in the Tour left him with a broken tibia which was expected to rule out his participation in Spain.

 

 

At first, Contador expressed hope that he would be able to take the start but as the injury proved more severe than he had hoped, his manager Jacinto Vidarte definitely ruled out his participation a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, a remarkable recovery made Contador change his plans and last week he announced that he will roll down the start ramp in Jerez de la Frontera on Sunday.

 

Lots of riders arrive at the Vuelta with limited racing in their legs but no one has done less training than Contador. The Spaniard has only been back on his bike for 16 days and he did his first climb without pain in his leg just one week ago. That’s definitely not the ideal preparation and even though Contador is a very talented athlete who was at the maximum of his capabilities at the time of the crash, one month without training should leave him with no chance to challenge for the overall.

 

Contador knows all about this and has made it clear that he won’t target the overall standings. Instead, he will use the race much like his compatriot Joaquim Rodriguez used the Tour: to rebuild condition for later objectives while also targeting a stage win in the final week of the race. Contador is second in the WorldTour rankings and has made the overall victory in the season-long competition his final big objective. That requires him to perform strongly in Il Lombardia and the Tour of Beijing and the Vuelta will provide him with the needed racing to build form for those races.

 

Nonetheless, you can never rule out Contador. The Spaniard has a very competitive mindset and unlike most other athletes, he never goes into the race without the objective of winning and it will be very interesting to see how he approaches the first week. Will he stay at the back of the field like Rodriguez did in the Tour and lose time whenever there is just a slight split? Or will he stay attentive near the front in the flat stages, hoping that he may be able to create a surprise?

 

Contador’s chances will be boosted by the course. Last year it would have been very hard for him to win the race as the race featured a summit finish already on the second day. This year the first major GC test comes in stage 6 and the first two mountaintop finishes aren’t too hard. By the time, the battle for GC gets really serious, Contador will have improved his condition a lot which could offer him a glimmer of hope.

 

Having had a difficult time since his suspension, Contador has had one of the best seasons of his career and he was the dominant stage racer in the first part of the season. He took a maiden Tirreno-Adriatico title and reclaimed the Vuelta al Pais Vasco crown. In the Criterium du Dauphiné he proved that he was very close to Chris Froome’s level and all was set for a big duel in France this July.

 

That battle was ultimately cancelled but Contador is clearly very close to his amazing 2009 level. That’s what makes him an outsider for this race even though he enters the race with no GC ambitions. He seems to have rediscovered his great time trialling skills and the 9 summit finishes clearly suit him down to the ground. He would probably have preferred the mountain stages to be harder before the final climbs but in general, it’s great course for the Tinkoff-Saxo captain.

 

Nonetheless, it will be a massive surprise if Contador wins the race. Even if he tries to give the GC a shot, he is up against quality riders like Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana and he would have to be at 100% of his capabilities to beat them. For Contador to win the race, those two riders will probably have to be hit by some kind of bad luck and even then he will have a hard time. Already in the first week, we will get a clear indication of any secret GC plans but the most likely scenario is that Contador won’t be concerned with the overall standings. However, it may still turn out to be a great Vuelta as the final week offers plenty of terrain for him to target a stage win and set him up for a great end to the season.

 

Daniel Moreno (*)

The cycling world is loaded with riders that dream about being a team leader but whose talent doesn’t allow them to reach the top level of the sport. As opposed to this, a few very classy bike rider that could easily have been captains in a lot of teams but who prefer to ride as luxury domestiques.

 

One of the prime examples of such a rider is Daniel Moreno. With three stage victories in the Vuelta, an overall fifth place in the Spanish grand tour, an overall victory in the Vuelta Burgos and a Fleche Wallonne win on his palmares, he has had a career that most riders can only dream about. Nonetheless, he has mostly been riding in service of his teammate and close friend Joaquim Rodriguez.

 

As the list of results shows, Moreno has occasionally had his chance to shine in the world’s biggest race but very often he has been sacrificing himself completely for his teammate. To make things even more complicated, the pair have almost identical qualities, meaning that Moreno will often have to work for his friend in races that he could realistically have won.

 

Apart from an unsuccessful time at Omega Pharma-Lotto, Moreno has always been riding as a domestique and he has made it clear that he prefers his current role. Nonetheless, Moreno’s results prove that he has the skills to mix it up with the best in both the classics and the stage races.

 

Last year Moreno had his best season to date. With Rodriguez being hampered by injuries, he got his chance to ride for himself in the Fleche Wallonne where he took an emphatic sprint victory on the Mur de Huy to succeed his teammate on the winners list. However, his greatest performances were delivered in the first week of the Vuelta where Moreno was better than ever before.

 

Already in stage 2, Moreno proved that he was in great condition when he finished second in the first mountaintop finish and two days later he took a stage win in the kind of uphill sprints that suit him down to the ground. Less than a week later, he beat Rodriguez on the brutally steep in Valdepenas de Jaen to claim the leader’s jersey and suddenly he had elevated himself into a role as potential overall winner of the race.

 

Just one day later, however, he lost all hopes of an overall victory when he suffered on the steep Alto de Hazallanas and from there he never reached his best level again. He settled back into a domestique role but despite working for Rodriguez, he managed to finish the race in 10th overall.

 

His great results prompted his Katusha team to give him a bit more freedom and they played with the thought of separating him more from Rodriguez. However, the pair have still followed mostly identical schedules and only in the Criterium du Dauphiné and the Tirreno-Adriatico did Moreno get his own chance in the first half of the season.

 

Suffering from allergy, Moreno is rarely at his best in the sprint and this rea he again had a poor first few months. He never hit peak condition for the classics and when Rodriguez crashed out of the Giro, he failed to take over the captaincy role. His plan to capitalize on his post-Giro condition in the Dauphiné like he did in 2012 didn’t bring any success either.

 

In the late summer, however, Moreno is usually flying and this year he seems to be back at 100% just in time for his home grand tour. In 2012 he won the Vuelta a Burgos overall and this year he did another great performance in the traditional warm-up race. In fact he nearly matched Nairo Quintana in the queen stage and only got dropped with 400m to go on the brutal climb to Lagunas De Neila. He did an outstanding final time trial and ended the race in second, just 3 seconds behind the Giro champion.

 

That result may indicate that Quintana is not yet at 100% but it may also show that Moreno is back at the level he had 12 months ago. Like last year he goes into the Vuelta as a key domestique for Rodriguez but last year’s race showed that he may get his own opportunities. Being up against Froome and Quintana, Katusha may be eager to keep their tactical options open and this could allow Moreno to go for GC himself.

 

Moreno is a great climber and as he proved in Burgos, he is actually a decent time triallist as well. However, he has a few key weaknesses that make it unlikely that he will ever win a grand tour. First of all, he suffers on long climbs. While he is a fabulous puncheur on short, brutally steep ramps, he is not able to keep up with the best in the high mountains. Secondly, his recovery abilities are not at the level of the best stage racers and he usually fades towards the end of a three-week race.

 

Coupled with his domestique role, this means that Moreno will probably never ride for the victory in a grand tour. However, his performances in last year’s Vuelta prove that he still has room for improvement and his results in Burgos indicate that he may be stronger than he was 12 months ago. Of course much will depend on his level of freedom and he will probably have to ride tempo on the front to set up Rodriguez for an attack. Nonetheless, he was stronger than his teammate in the first part of last year’s Vuelta and if he is back at that level, Katusha may again have to reconsider team leadership at the midpoint of the race.

 

Przemyslaw Niemiec (*)

For several years, Przemyslaw Niemiec didn't get the chances that his undisputed talent deserved. Riding for smaller continental teams, he was a perennial contender in the hardest Italian races but for some reason, he was never given the chance at the highest level. Not even an overall victory and three stage wins in the Route du Sud and a podium spot and two stage victories in the Giro del Trentino were enough to convince one of cycling's major teams that he deserved a spot on their roster.

 

His fortunes finally changed when Lampre-Merida signed him for the 2011 season but he had a hard time adjusting to consistently riding at the highest level. Furthermore, he mostly rode as a domestique and got very few personal opportunities.

 

He finally showed glimpses of his potential when he finished 15th in the 2012 Vuelta and it seems that the experience of riding a grand tour for the GC made him improve a lot. Last year he was riding better than ever and he capped an excellent spring season that included top 10 results in Tirreno, Catalunya and Trentino with a 6th place in the Giro despite riding in support of Michele Scarponi.

 

With Scarponi now riding for Astana and new signing Chris Horner out with injury, Niemiec got his first ever chance to be the undisputed leader in a grand tour in this year’s Giro. He was allowed to specifically prepare the challenge and after a slow start to the season, he seemed to be finding his form just in time for his big objective. Having shown signs of form before falling ill in Catalunya, he finished 3rd overall in Trentino.

 

However, nothing went according to plan for Niemiec who was one several riders to crash in the wet and slippery stage 6 and from there he played no role in the race. He tried to bounce back with a few attacks in the mountains but he ended the race in 49th without any results whatsoever.

 

Niemiec refocused on the second half of the season where the Vuelta is his big goal. Unlike last year, he skipped the Tour de France and he has been able to prepare specifically for the grand tour. This time, however, he is not the leader of the team and he goes into the race with the role of being the lieutenant for defending champion Chris Horner.

 

That will definitely put some restraints on his opportunities. On the other hand, Horner is not among the biggest favourites to win the race and Lampre-Merida will not be expected to carry much responsibility in the race. This could open the door for Niemiec to also ride for his own GC on a course that suits him well.

 

His performance in Trentino also underlined which type of rider he is. Niemiec struggled in the short, explosive uphill finish in stage 3 and was constantly in difficulties when the attacks were launched on the two big mountains that ended stages 2 and 4. However, he always clawed his way back to the best riders and ended both stage as the best of the favourites by winning the sprint.

 

Niemiec is not very explosive but knows himself extremely well and knows how to pace himself on a climb. This year's course doesn’t have its traditional finishes on short, steep ramps and the summit finishes are much more suited to Niemiec’s characteristics.

 

On the other hand, Niemiec is no great time triallist and even though he has improved in the discipline, there is no doubt that he will lose a lot of time to the best in the race’s two individual tests. He needs to take back that time in the mountains and this will be a difficult task in a field that is loaded with grand tour specialists.

 

However, Niemiec seems to have reached peak condition just in time for his big objective. He finished 5th overall in the Tour de Pologne which was a major feat on a course that didn’t suit him at all. Both mountain stages were decided on short, steep climbs while the most important stage was a completely flat time trial. Nonetheless, Niemiec kept up with the best in the mountains and did what he described as the time trial of his life to make it into the top 5.

 

That’s a pretty classy performance and Niemiec has proved that he can be up there with the best when he is at 100% of his capabilities. The Vuelta is probably the grand tour that suits him the best and if he is not too constrained by his domestique duties, Niemiec could again get the chance to blossom at the ripe age of 34.

 

Cadel Evans (*)

At the start of the season, it was a common perception that Cadel Evans’ time as a genuine grand tour contender had come to an end. He may have finished third in the 2013 Giro d’Italia but after another disappointing Tour de France performance even his own BMC team had asked him to step down from his Tour leadership role to give room for Tejay van Garderen.

 

Evans still got his chance to lead the team in the Giro d’Italia but when he delivered a very poor performance in Tirreno-Adriatico, it seemed that he had still not recovered from the illness that derailed most of his 2012 and 2013 seasons.  His team still remained confident in their Giro leader and stuck to the plan but at the time it seemed unlikely that Evans would play a prominent role in the Italian grand tour.

 

Evans showed signs of improvement when he finished 7th in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but what really changed the common perception was his performance in the Giro del Trentino. The Australian won a stage and the overall, beating Domenico Pozzovivo into second. Two days after the conclusion of the race, the tiny Italian was one of the strongest riders in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, leading to speculation what Evans could have done in the Belgian classic.

 

The performance elevated him from top 10 contender to potential overall winner of the Giro and when he got the race off to a great start – albeit under slightly controversial circumstances in a crash-marred stage – and took the leader’s jersey, people started wondering whether Evans was still capable of winning a grand tour.

 

In the end, it came to nothing for Evans who faded in the final two weeks of the race and slipped to 8th in the final standings. To satisfy the team’s needs, he rode to a respectable 11th in the Tour de Suisse before taking a mid-season break that gave him room to ponder a potential retirement.

 

Evans’ Giro performance proved that his top level is still amazingly high. At his best, the 37-year-old can still mix it up with the best climbers in the high mountains and his time as a stage race is definitely not up yet. On the other hand, his struggles in the third week revealed that his time as a podium contender in the grand tours is probably over and that it would be no bad idea to focus on week-long stage races in the future.

 

Evans still hasn’t decided whether he will be riding in 2015 and the Vuelta will probably play a key role in his final decision. He is set to make up his mind during the grand tour and it has been rumoured that he will be using next year’s Tour Down Under as his farewell race.

 

Originally, the BMC team was expected to be built around Samuel Sanchez for the Spanish grand tour while Evans would use the race to build form for the Worlds but now it seems that Evans and Sanchez will enter the race on an equal footing. At this point in time, the pair of veterans will share captaincy duties and Evans is likely to give it another go in a grand tour.

 

Evans recently returned to competition in the Tour of Utah where he was still slightly off the mark of the best climbers. Nonetheless, he showed amazing fighting spirit to win the final two mountain stages. Those two performances again underlined what is now Evans’ main strength. He may no longer have the legs to match the best in the mountains but he has a vast experience that can bring him very far in a three-week race. This time he goes into a grand tour with his form on the rise which seems to be a much better strategy for a race that is set to be decided in the final two weeks.

 

Despite Evans’ class and experience, however, the legs will do the talking in a race that is characterized by no less than 9 summit finishes. Evans’ tactical skills and race knowledge will take him some way down the road towards a high overall placing but in the end he still has not match the likes of Quintana and Contador on the climbs. Nothing suggests that he will be able to do so and his team is definitely aware of this fact. This time their goal is not the overall victory and the team is not fully built around its GC riders. Instead, Evans will be allowed to ride his own race and see how far he and Sanchez can come in the overall standings.

 

Compared to most of the GC riders, Evans is a far better time triallist and this will serve him well on a course where the time trials are expected to play a bigger role than they have done in recent years. However, he is not the time triallist he once was and he will still lose time to a rider like Froome. Coupled with the fact that his recovery is no longer what it once was, it is hard to see Evans be in podium contention. A top 5 result seems to be the maximum achievable but that would definitely be a fine result at what could be the end of a fantastic grand tour career.

 

Robert Gesink (*)

When neo-pro Robert Gesink finished 4th in the 2007 Tour of Germany and 2nd in the 2007 Tour de Pologne just months after his professional debut, the Dutch cycling fans were overjoyed. After years of waiting, it seemed that they had finally developed the next big grand tour rider and the expectations for the lanky Dutchman were lofty. Since then he has continued to signal a breakthrough in the near future with a number of impressive performances in week-long stage races. Had it not been for a crash, he could even have won the 2009 Vuelta. In the last few years, however, it has been a long series of disappointments and no one really regards the Dutchman as a potential grand tour winner.

 

One of the key reasons for the lack of results is certainly his many crashes. He crashed out of his 2009 debut in the Tour and after a fine 5th place in 2010, new tumbles destroyed his chances in 2011 and 2012. In the latter year he bounced back and finished off the season with a 6th place in the Vuelta in what was his first possibility to battle for a top result in a grand tour since the 2010 Tour.

 

Last year Gesink decided to give the Giro a shot as his then Blanco team was in desperate search for a sponsor. However, the race ended as another big failure as he was unable to follow the best and when he abandoned the race due to illness, his absence was barely noticed.

 

While Bauke Mollema created Mollemania in the Netherlands during the 2013 Tour, Gesink was riding in support of his teammate and it seemed that the Dutch fans had once and for all turned their back to their huge talent. However, Gesink proved that there is still life in his talented legs when he won the GP de Quebec late in the season with an impressive show of power in a finale that didn’t really suit a pure climber like him.

 

That performance again created expectations for Gesink who built his season schedule around the Tour de France. After solid performances in the Tour Down Under and the Tour of Oman, he fell ill during Tirreno-Adriatico. What changed his season, however, was the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he had another scary experience that the cycling world knew nothing about.

 

Suffering from a heart failure, Gesink was forced to abandon the race and this time he decided to undergo surgery. Putting his career temporarily on hold, he decided to skip the Tour de France and no one knew when he would be back in the saddle.

 

Gesink made a surprisingly fast recovery and at one point he even pondered lining up in the Tour. In the end, he decided to focus on the Vuelta and after making his comeback at his national championships, he trained at altitude in Utah.

 

Cycling fans all over the world were curious to see how he would perform when he did his first major race, the Tour de Pologne, a few weeks ago. On a course that didn’t suit him well, he delivered a solid performance to end the race in 8th in what was his first stage race since the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

That performance proved that Gesink is back on track and with his health problems now solved, he may even come back stronger than he was when he temporarily left the scene. His talent is obvious and hopefully he will now be able to live up to the lofty expectations that were once created.

 

Gesink goes into the Vuelta as part of a three-pronged Belkin attack and will share leadership duties with Wilco Kelderman and Laurens Ten Dam. That lessens the pressure and Belkin’s performance won’t rely solely on him. He has admitted that the race may come a bit too early but targets a spot in the top 10. After all, he didn’t lose too many races and lots of riders have had longer breaks from competition. Mainly, however, he will use the race as a stepping stone for the 2015 season.

 

Gesink is obviously a very gifted climber. In the 2011 season, he improved his time trialling a lot and for a brief moment, he looked like a complete grand tour rider before he disappeared into anonymity. Unfortunately, he has been unable to uphold that level and compared to many GC riders, he may lose a chunk of time in the race’s time trial.

 

With 9 uphill finishes and limited time trialling, however, the course suits him well. This time there are no short, steep ramps in the finales and the summit finishers are all on longer climbs. This is a clear advantage for Gesink who is not very explosive. With Kelderman gaining a lot of attention, he will fly a bit under the radar and this may set him up for a good performance.

 

We will be very surprised if Gesink is in podium contention in this race but there is no doubt that he is one of the most gifted athletes in the peloton. With his health problems now behind him, he may return to his former level and there is a chance the Vuelta will give the first signs that he will finally be able to become the rider that many believed he could be.