With the Vuelta a Andalucia having attracted a line-up that is worthy of a grand tour, all eyes will be on Spain in the coming week. Before we get to the stage racing, however, some of the riders will test themselves in a pair of one-day races and first it will be the climbers who get the chance to shine when they tackle the mountainous terrain of the Vuelta a Murcia on Saturday.

 

The Vuelta a Murcia was once one of the many five-day stage races that were spread out across the cycling calendar and made the Spanish cycling scene one of the richest. In recent years, however, the poor economy in one of cycling’s traditional key countries has seen several races disappear and nowadays even WorldTour races likes the Volta a Catalunya and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco are fighting hard just to survive.

 

The Vuelta a Murcia is one of the select few that have not disappeared from the calendar but it is no longer the race it once was. First it was scaled down to a three-stage race but two years ago the organizers had to abandon the stage race concept as their financial situation only allowed one day of racing. Keeping with the mountainous tradition of the Spanish race, they designed a hilly course for the race and in the first two years as a Spanish classic, it has been won by climbers Daniel Navarro and Alejandro Valverde who have excelled in the tough uphill finish.

 

While it was still a stage race, it was held in early March where it offered an alternative to Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. After having been reduced to a one-day race, it has teamed up with the Clasica de Almeria to form a solid weekend of racing in Spain. Until now, they have been held after the Vuelta a Andalucia – the only survivor among the early-season Spanish stage races – but for this year’s edition, the two events have been moved to the weekend prior to the Andalusian race, thus making it a perfect warm-up for the main event of the early Spanish calendar.

 

The course

Compared to last year, the course has been slightly changed as the first part of the race has been revamped. However, the finale is very identical to the one that featured in 2014 and the main challenges will be unchanged.

 

The course brings the riders over 198.1km from Mazarron to the finish at the top of the short Alto Fortaleza del Sol in Lorca. The main change is the starting city as the riders will now take off from the Mediterranean coast and in the first part, the riders will stay close to the sea while the tackle the category 3 Alto de Cedacero (5.3km, 5.4%) which offers an opportunity to launch an early attack. The next part is significantly easier as the riders follow rolling roads for the first 88.2km where they hit the course that was used for last year’s race.

 

This is when the climbing really starts as a small uncategorized ascent leads to the bottom of the category 1 Alto de Espuna (9.4km, 5.5%). There is no immediate descent and instead the riders hot the bottom of another category 1 climb that leads to the top of the well-known Alto de Collado Bermejo (6.5km, 6.8%).

 

The summit comes with 47.3km to go and from there it’s a fast descent before the riders hit gradually ascending roads. However, it is all just a warm-up for the explosive finale as the finish line is located at the top of the category 3 Alto de Fortaleza del Sol which is 2km long and has an average gradient of 5.8%.

 

 

 

 

The favourites

With two tough climbs in the second half of the race and a tough finale at the top of a 2km ramp, the Vuelta a Murcia has suited the climbers and Ardennes specialists since it was reduced to a one-day race and found its present format. As the main characteristics are unchanged, that is likely to be the case for the 2015 edition too.

 

In 2013 and 2014, home rider Alejandro Valverde lined up as the major favourite with a very strong Movistar team at his side and the Spanish team was doing their utmost to set their captain up for the win. In 2013, a late attack by Daniel Navarro denied the home favourite but last year the local hero lived up to expectations by taking a dominant win.

 

This year Valverde is racing in the Middle East and so the dynamics of the race is set to change. The race has managed to attract a very strong line-up with lots of riders that are able to shine in this kind of finale. However, Movistar again have the strongest line-up and much will be determined by their approach to the race.

 

This year, however, they don’t have an obvious favourite and this means that they are likely to ride a lot more aggressively. They will probably take the responsibility to control the early break but by the time they hit the two major climbs, they may try to send riders up the road. This could make the race a lot more aggressive and selective and we could see a pretty big selection already before the riders get to the bottom of the final climb. If Movistar out a few riders into a strong group on the Collado Bermejo, they may even be able to stay away.

 

With a long distance from the biggest challenge to the finish, however, the most likely scenario is that some teams will get time to organize a chase and bring it back together for an uphill sprint on the climb in Lorca. This means that the race is likely to be won by an Ardennes specialist who excels in this kind of explosive finale but a strong climber may benefit from a selective race to make it into a small group and then ride away from his rivals on the final climb.

 

Almost every single rider on the Movistar team seems capable of winning this race and the Spanish team will try to exploit their strength in numbers to come away with the win. On paper, Bauke Mollema seems to be the obvious favourite as he is in very good condition at the moment and is tailor-made for this finale. However, the final climb is not very steep and this means that Movistar may be able to use their strength in numbers to put the Dutchman under pressure. Mollema could easily find himself up against 3-4 Movistar riders with 1km to go and if they start to attack the Trek leader, it will be very hard for him to respond to everything himself.

 

With Movistar lining up so many strong climbers, we will put our money on a victory for the Spanish team. The in-form rider in their line-up seems to be Benat Intxausti who had a very difficult 2014 season where he only showed flashes of his usual self in the Tour de Pologne and the Tour de Romandie. This year, however, he has come out with all guns blazing and he rode very strongly in the second race in Mallorca where he completely controlled the finale to set up Valverde for the win.

 

In this race, Intxausti will get the chance to ride for himself and even though he is not exactly an Ardennes specialist, he has a pretty powerful uphill sprint as he proved in Poland last year. He is likely to be one of the Movistar riders to attack on the final climb and it will be very hard for the rivals to follow the in-form Basque. If it comes down to a sprint, he will have another chance and if he is up against a fatigued Mollema, he will have the upper hand. This means that Intxausti is our winner pick.

 

However, Mollema is a formidable opponent. The Dutchman rode strongly in Mallorca where he finished fourth in Trofeo Andratx before he went down in a crash one day later. Two years ago he finished second in this event which proves that the finale suits him pretty well. That comes as no surprise as he is one of the most consistent riders in the Ardennes classics and has finished in the top 10 in almost all those classics in the last few years. He excels on short, steep climbs and he has a very fast sprint. As he is also in good condition, he is an obvious favourite.

 

Movistar have a line-up that is loaded with climbers. In the Tour Down Under, Ruben Fernandez led the team in an incredible way, finishing third in the queen stage and fifth overall. He has not been doing any racing since the Australian race but nothing suggests that they haven’t been able to maintain their condition.

 

Fernandez has made it clear that he wants to start his first season at Movistar strongly and he seems to always be good in the month of February. He may lack the explosiveness to be really suited to this finish but he may turn out to be the strongest climber. Furthermore, Movistar will probably try to ride offensively and if Fernandez escapes in the finale, he  will  be strong enough to finish it off.

 

The local fans will be cheering for Luis Leon Sanchez who will be leading the Astana team. This kind of short, uphill finish suits him well and in the past he would have been an obvious favourite. However, he hasn’t been at his best level since he left Belkin and he still needs to show that he can return to his best. He was a bit off the pace in Australia but he has a history of being very strong in the early part of the season and in an uphill sprint he is hard to beat.

 

Last year Tiago Machado rode extremely well to finish second in a finale that actually doesn’t suit him very well. He lacks the explosiveness to go up against the likes of Mollema in this kind of finish but he seems to be in a solid condition as he rode reasonably well in Australia where a crash in the final stage prevented him from finishing in the top 10. He won’t win an uphill sprint but if he can anticipate the faster finishers, he may be strong enough to finish it off.

 

Daniel Navarro is a former winner of this race but like Machado he is not explosive enough to really excel in this kind of finish. As this is his first race of the season, his condition is uncertain but he has traditionally been riding very well at this time of the year.

 

Davide Rebellin is perfectly suited to the final climb and by winning the Giro dell’Emilia just a few months ago, he proved that he can still mix it up with the best. In Mallorca, he proved that he is in a solid condition but he was still a bit off the mark set by the likes of Mollema, Visconti and Intxausti. He is probably not strong enough to win a direct battle but could come out on top by virtue of tactical ingenuity.

 

The finale also suits Gianluca Brambilla really well and he will get a rare chance to ride for himself. However, the Etixx-QuickStep rider is making his season debut and he has rarely been riding very strongly at this time of the year.

 

Michele Scarponi is also making his debut at this race and he has often started his seasons very strongly. However, the finale doesn’t suit him very well and he is no longer the rider he once was and may have to ride in a domestique role for Sanchez.

 

Finally, Arthur Vichot could get a big breakthrough this year after he missed most of the 2014 season due to injury. He has the right explosive skills to excel in this kind of finish but his condition is a bit uncertain as he has only done the GP Marseillaise where he played a less prominent role than he has done in the past. On paper, it would be a good race for Julien Simon but as he has been suffering from chickenpox, his condition is uncertain.

 

***** Benat Intxausti

**** Bauke Mollema, Ruben Fernandez

*** Luis Leon Sanchez, Tiago Machado, Daniel Navarro

** Davide Rebellin, Gianluca Brambilla, Michele Scarponi, Arthur Vichot, Luis Angel Mate

* Rein Taaramae, Yury Trofimov, Julien Simon, Ion Izagirre, Jose Herrada, Grega Bole, Yoann Bagot, Nicolas Edet, Fabio Felline, Julien Alaphilippe, David de la Cruz, Daan Olivier, Alexandre Geniez, Sergey Lagutin, Alexandr Kolobnev, Sergey Firsanov, Marco Canola, Romain Sicard, Eduard Prades