While most attention is focused on the cobbles of Northern Europe and strong men like Tom Boonen, Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan, some of the world's most formidable climbers and leading stage race riders prepare for 6 days of intense racing on the steep climbs in the cycling-mad Basque Country. Starting on Monday, the Tour of the Basque Country has a double purpose. On one hand, it is the perfect preparation for the upcoming Ardennes classics and on the other, it is a highly prestigious WorldTour stage race in its own right.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico play a special dual role as they both serve as the final, crucial preparation for the classics specialists and the first big test of the stage race riders. After the end of the Italian race, however, the coming month has traditionally been almost entirely about the classics, with the one-day battles in Northern Europe taking all the spotlight.

 

That doesn't mean that the grand tour riders are doing nothing these days. Several stage races - highlighted by the WorldTour races Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta al Pais Vasco - take place in the southern part of the continent over the next few weeks and even though they are partly preparation for the Ardennes classics, they are much more than that. For those of the grand tour riders that avoid the one-day races entirely, they are some of their biggest objectives in the early part of the season and usually the scene of some of the most exciting battles between the stars that will battle it out in the three-week races later in the year.

 

With the Basque Country being one of the most cycling-mad regions of the world, it is only natural for them to host one of the leading races. Like Flanders, the area is crowded with people who love the sport of cycling but while the Belgians are all devoted to one-day racing, it is stage racing that is dear to the hearts of the Basques. Hence, it is no surprise that their big event is one of the greatest multi-day events on the calendar.

 

First held in 1924, the race has a long history but after the 1930 edition it faded disappeared. An attempt to revive it was made in 1935 but had no lasting effect and the race wasn't held from 1936 to 1968.

 

In 1969, it was back on the calendar and right from the start, it was a high-profile event. The first winner of the revived race was no less of a figure than Jacques Anquetil and since then it has been won by many of the cycling greats. Luis Ocana is a double winner, Sean Kelly won it thrice, Stephen Roche is a former winner, and Tony Rominger has three titles on his palmares. In recent years, grand tour stars like Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Andreas Klöden, Samuel Sanchez, Chris Horner and Denis Menchov have all been atop the podium to indicate just how prestigious the Basque race is.

 

The Basque Country is a very hilly region but has no big mountains. Their climbs are all short and steep, making the stages look like an Ardennes classic. As it takes place just a few weeks before the hilly one-day races, it is no wonder that the race has been regarded as the best preparation for the Ardennes triptych and the racing has usually offered a pretty good indication of who's on form for the races in Belgium and the Netherlands.

 

At a certain point, it seemed that the race was more preparation than a target in itself but with the invention of the ProTour and the later importance of WorldTour points, the trend seems to have been bucked. Nowadays, it clearly serves a dual purpose. . While riders like Philippe Gilbert, Damiano Cunego, Jelle Vanendert, Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini have travelled to Spain with the sole purpose of sharpening their climbing legs ahead of their most important one-day objectives, Alberto Contador, Tejay van Garderen, and Jean-Christophe Peraud are at the start with the sole purpose of winning the event.

 

In recent years, Spanish cycling has been suffering and Basque cycling has been hit no less hard than the rest of the country. The Euskal Bizikleta - another big Basque stage race - has disappeared and the region's two WorldTour races, their big tour and the Clasica San Sebastian, have both been under threat due to economic difficulties. UCI had to step in and make a contribution to save them for the near future but unfortunately their long-term stability is very uncertain.

 

2014 will also be the first year where the fans will not be able to follow their local heroes on home roads. The Basques are renowned for their passion, and their own regional cycling team Euskaltel has always been a source of immense pride. They enjoyed a highlight in 2012 when Samuel Sanchez finally managed to win the race for the home team but this year the orange colours will be absent. That shouldn't take anything away from their passion though and we can again expect to see them crowd the roads.

 

The race is usually one of the hardest of the week-long stage races. With almost no flat roads in the region, sprinters have limited opportunities, and it is no surprise that the fast men have always kept their focus firmly on the Northern classics. Instead, the race is littered with multiple (sometimes extremely) steep climbs of medium length, and it is the hard slopes, the concluding technical, hilly time trial and the torrential rain that usually determine the overall GC. Even though the race does not enter the high mountains and tackle the long climbs, the race is surely one for the strongest stage race riders.

 

The short climbs, however, usually mean that the race is determined by seconds and it is hard to open up massive gaps in the hills. The race always ends with a hilly time trial and that stage plays a crucial role in the outcome. The Basque fans may love their climbers but no one will win their national tour without possessing very solid time trialing skillss.

 

Last year's edition evolved into a great battle between Nairo Quintana, Sergio Henao, Alberto Contador, Richie Porte, and Simon Spilak. Henao showed his excellent skills on short, steep climbs to take the lead on the brutal wall that ended the third stage and he defended it on the race's traditional queen stage up the Alto de Arrate. His teammate Porte showed great form when he won the epic penultimate stage that was held under torrential rain and all was set for the Australian to take the win in the final time trial. However, Quintana produced the time trial of his life on the hilly course to take second behind world champion Tony Martin and the Colombian became a surprise winner ahead of Porte and Henao. This year none of last year's podium finishers will be back as Quintana and Porte are busy preparing the Giro - even though Porte's participation in that race has now come under threat - while Henao has been taken off the Sky roster due to abnormal blood values. Spilak and Contador will, however, be back as they try to improve on last year's 4th and 5th place respectively.

 

The course

The organizers have put together a very traditional course for the 2014 edition of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and we can expect the kind of racing that has always characterized the Basque event. There is very little flat terrain in the Basque Country and so there will be no easy days. Nonetheless, the race offers a few opportunities for the fast finishers that can overcome a few climbs while there will be two stages for the climbers to take time of the time trialists. As usual, the race ends with a time trial of 20-30km but as it is always the case in the Basque Country, it is not the traditional course for the big specialists as it is a rather hilly affair.

 

Compared to the recent editions, the course seems to be slightly easier. As usual, the queen stage will incorporate the well-known Arrate finish that was "inherited" by the race from the now defunct Euskal Bizikleta stage race, and again it will come on the fourth day of racing. Unlike the 2012 and 2013 editions, there will be no other summit finishes (and technically, the queen stage is not a summit finish either as it ends with 1km of technical and fast descending) and the number of climbing stages has been cut from three to two.

 

The time trial always plays a big role in determining the winner of the race and in the last four years, the leader's jersey has changed hands on the final day of racing. With a slightly easier course for this year's edition, the time trial will be even more important and the climbers have to make the most of their opportunities. In addition to the Arrate stage, their big chance comes on the first day where they will go up a brutally steep climb in the finale but even though it will produce some selection, the difference between the race favourites will be counted in seconds. Last year the riders had an uphill finish on a steep wall on the third day, the Arrate finish on the fourth, and a brutal, rainy day full of ups and downs on the penultimate day that were all suited to the GC riders.

 

Stage 1:

The race kicks off with a classic Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage that will require the GC riders to be on their guard right from the very start of the race. At the same time, it is one of the few chances for the climbers to take time on the time trialists and so they have to make the most of it.

 

The Basque Country is a rather tiny area and so most of the stages are made up as complicated affair where the riders zigzag their way around a chosen city, often using many of the same roads several times and passing the finish on more than one occasion. That is exactly the nature of the opening 153.4km stage that is a very hilly affair starting and finishing in the city of Ordizia.

 

From the start, the riders will first do a loop in the area east of the city where they will go up three climbs.  First up is the category 2 Alto de Abaltzisketa (3km, 8.17%) which is a rather constant affair before levelling out near the top. The top comes after 19.7km and is followed by the very steep category 2 Alto de Lazkaomendi (1.3km, 13.08%) at the 28.8km mark. Having passed the first intermediate sprint, the riders go up the category 3 Alto de Gabria (2.6km, 8.65%) before taking on a long gradual descent back to Ordizia.

 

The riders will pass the main city after 69.2km of racing and now it is time for another loop around the city where they will cover some of the same roads as they did on the first one. At first the roads are flat but the hostilities begin at the 91.4km mark when the riders reach the top of the first of three climbs that come in quick succession. First up is another passage of the Abaltzisketa but instead of continuing to the Lazkaomendi, the riders will get a first taste of the climb that is set to decide the stage. After 101.2km of racing, they reach the top of the short, steep category 2 Alto de Gaintza (2.3km, 13.04%) that will play a crucial role when it is tackled later in the day deep into the finale. After the descent, the riders do the final intermediate sprint and then they go up the category 3 Alto de Okorro (2km, 9.5%).

 

After than climb, it is time for some recovery as the descent is following by a long stretch of slightly descending roads where the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint. The final kicks off when the riders start the longest climb of the day, the category 2 Alto de Orendain (5.3km, 5.19%) which has a rather constant 6% gradient for the first 3km before flattening out for the final part.

 

The top comes 21.3km from the finish but it is still too early for the favourites to make a move. The rider stay at a plateau for several kilometres before taking on the descent. It leads directly to the bottom of the Gaintza  which will be tackled for a second time and this time, it will be decisive. The first kilometre has a 10% gradient and the second kilometre is simply brutal at 16%. The final 300m have an average of 13.33% and leads to the top just 6.7km from the finish.

 

Then it is a fast descent that continues all the way down to the 2km to go mark when the roads flatten out. There is a little 300m 5% bump just after the flamme rouge but the nasty sting in the tail is the 8% gradient on the final 300m of the stage. The finish is rather technical as two sharp 90-degree turns come in quick succession and lead onto a straight road that has a sharp right-hand bend just a few hundred metres from the line.

 

With only a few opportunities for the climbs in this race, we can expect a big GC battle right from the start. None of the climbs are very long but they are generally steep and the terrain is hard enough to make it a tough day in the saddle. We can expect that the best teams will ride a hard tempo to tire out their rivals and then it will all come down to the final climb. It is located so close to the finish than many time gaps  will be maintained all the way to the line and we will probably see the peloton be blown to pieces before arriving in several smaller groups.

 

Ordizia has not hosted a finale of a Vuelta al Pais Vasco in recent years but the race has used the kind of finish with a short steep ramp close to end on several occasions. In 2011 the race opened with a very similar stage and on that day Joaquim Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, Andreas Klöden and Chris Horner finished 6 seconds ahead of a 6-rider chase group while 13 riders followed 12 seconds later. Ordizia - which is the home of the one-day race Prueba Villafranca - is a neighbouring city of Beasain which was the scene of the dramatic penultimate stage of last year's race won by Richie Porte and the nature of that stage says a lot about the terrain in the area.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

There are no flat stages in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but like the recent Volta a Catalunya, the Basque race is usually a treat for the fast finishers who can overcome a few climbs. Due to the hilly profiles, all the big sprinters stay away from the race and this opens the door for some of the more versatile riders amongst the fast finishers. They will get their first chance on the second day of racing which brings the rider over 155.8km from Ordizia to Urdax-Urdazubi near the coast in what should be the easiest stage of the race.

 

The first part of the stage consists of a long easterly run from Ordizia and this is where the hills of the stage are located. The first 20km are mostly flat but things will change when the riders go up the 2nd category Alto de Gorosmendi (6.2km, 5.89%) which is one of the longest in the race and is a very regular affair. The top comes after 30.7km of racing but is only followed by a very short descent before the riders continue up the category 2 Alto de Usategieta (4km, 5.5%).

 

After the top, it is finally time for a long descent. At the bottom the riders travel in a northerly direction along flat roads before tackling a small loop that sends them up the category 2 Alto de la Piedad (2.5km, 8%). From there, the riders continue in a northeasterly direction towards the finishing city and they now face the major obstacle of the day, the category 1 Alto de Lizaeta (7.9km, 4.49%). The gradient is rather deceptive as it is very easy at the bottom but has a rather steep middle section.

 

From the top, however, 50.6km still remain and they start off with a long downhill run to the finishing city where the riders will contest the first intermediate sprint. The riders now tackle a 35.7km loop in the area just north of the city. Even though the terrain is rolling, there are no categorized climbs and the only highlights are the final two intermediate sprints 29.6km and 20km from the finish respectively.

 

Inside the final 10km, there is a small uncategorized climb before it goes down to the finish. The descent ends at the flamme rouge while the final kilometre is slightly uphill, with 2% in the first 500m and 4% in the second half. There is a sharp right-hand turn at the flamme rouge and the riders go straight through a roundabout 500m from the line.

 

Despite the inclusion of a category 1 climb, this stage should be the easiest of the entire race. It seems to be a classical Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage where the sprinters have to overcome some solid climbing before battling it out in a bunch sprint finish. However, the riders need to stay aware of the wind that may be strong in this area and could pose a danger on the final flat circuit.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

It's very rare for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco not to visit Vitoria-Gasteiz, and the major Basque city will again feature on the 2014 route. It is located on a plateau far from the coast in the western part of the region and the area is rather flat. Hence, stages finishing in Vitoria-Gasteiz often ends in a bunch sprint and it would be surprise if it should be any different in this year's edition of the race.

 

The stage is the longest of the race and brings the riders over 194.5km from yesterday's finish in Urdax-Urdazubi to Vitoria-Gasteiz. The start is no less that brutal as the riders head south and go straight up the category2 Alto de Otsondo (6.6km, 6.47%). It's a very regular climb whose steepest sections come from the bottom and it requires the riders to be ready right from the gun.

 

After the top, the riders go down a long gradual descent until they reach the bottom of the very long category 2 climb Alto de Belate (10km, 4.95%). It's not a very tough affair but its length makes it one of the harder challenges of the race. The top comes after 40.3km of racing and the climb will have brought the riders up on the plateau where the rest of the stage will take place.

 

Up there, the roads are long, straight and flat and so the next 120km will consist of a long, flat westerly run where the only potential challenge will be the wind. The only point of excitement comes at the 76.7km where the first intermediate sprint is located.

 

On the outskirts of Vitoria-Gasteiz, the riders turn south to do a small loop that sends them up to small climbs and makes the stage a bit more challenging. First up is the category 3 Alto de Vitoria (4.8km, 3.92%) whose only steep kilometre is the fourth one with its gradient of 6.5%. The top comes 29.5km from the finish and is followed by a gradual descent to the bottom of the category 3 Alto de Zaldiaran (2.8km, 5.36%) which is very regular but gets a bit steeper near the top.

 

The top comes 9.3km from the finish and then it is downhill almost all the way to the line. The descent is not technical and not very steep either. It ends 1km from the finish where the road becomes completely flat. The riders go straight through a roundabout at the flamme rouge and again 500m from the line and then it is straight and flat to the finish.

 

The finish will be well-known by many riders as the Zaldiaran and downhill run to the line has featured in the finale of the last two editions of the race. In both cases, the stage ended with a bunch sprint from a group of more than 100 riders and in both cases, Daryl Impey took the win. In the 2011 Vuelta, Daniele Bennati won a bunch sprint in the city while Kim Kirchen won another bunch sprint in the 2008 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. History proves that the sprinters rule in Vitoria-Gasteiz and this year it is unlikely to be any different.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The fourth day is the day of the race's traditional queen stage. For many years, the finish with the Alto de Arrate and the short downhill run to the line featured in the queen stage of the Euskal Bizikleta but when that race disappeared, the organizers agreed with the Vuelta al Pais Vasco organizers to incorporate that stage into the biggest Basque race. Since then it has always featured as the end of the race's queen stage and in 2014 it will be no different.

 

While the finale is unchanged from year to year, the early part of the stage varies a bit. This year the stage has a length of just 151km and starts in Vitoria-Gasteiz. As that city is located on the flat plateau that dominated the racing on the previous day, the first part is completely flat as the riders travel in a predominantly northeasterly direction. After 27.3km, they go down the long gradual descent that ends in Bergera where the day's climbing begins.

 

First up is the category 2 Alto de Asentzio (6.3km, 6.19%) which has a rather steep second half. The top comes at the 59km mark is followed by a steep descent and then a few flat kilometres where the first intermediate sprint comes in the finishing city of Eibar. From here, the riders turn around to do the first of two loops around the city. It kicks off in brutal fashion with the category 2 Alto de Karabieta (6.5km, 7.31%) which has a steep middle section of 3km where the gradient doesn't drop below 8%.

 

After the descent, the riders travel along slightly rolling roads back to Eibar where they start the second loop around the city. It kicks off with the hardest climb of the day, the category 1 Alto de Ixua (4.1km, 10.12%). It's a very tough one but its top comes 34.7km from the finish and so it is still too early for the favourites to make a move. It's descent lead almost directly to the bottom of the category 2 Alto de Aiastia (4.8km, 5.63%) whose final 800m are the steepest at 8.75% but which is not too tough. The second intermediate sprint comes at its bottom.

 

From the top 20.5km remain and they start with a fast descent that lead to a short stretch of gradually ascending valley roads that lead back to Eibar. Now it is time to head up the famous category 1 Alto de Arrate (7.3km, 6.71%) which is located on the northern outskirts of the city. It's a very regular affair as the first 6km have a gradient of 7.5% but then the road flattens out with a gradient of just around 3% for the final 1.3km.

 

From the top only 1.7km remain and the riders will all know the final section well as it features at the race every year. The final section is a fast technical downhill where there is no time for regrouping and the time differences are usually maintained all the way to the finish. It's a technical affair that has several turns inside the final kilometre. The final right-hand one comes just 100m from the line and history proves that the winner is the one who enters it in first position.

 

The first climbs will all be used to tire out the rivals and especially the Ixua is perfect for a team that wants to make the race hard but it will all come down to a battle between the favourites on the final climb. The stage debuted in the race in 2009 when Alberto Contador rode to a solo win 8 seconds ahead of Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez but since then it has been Sanchez' domain. The local hero won it thrice in a row from 2010 to 2012, arriving at the finish as part of a trio twice and with an 11-rider group once. The technical descent has suited him perfectly and he has always known how to time his sprint ahead of the final corner to come away in the win. Last year he was finally beaten when he failed to make it into the 7-rider lead group and this time it was Nairo Quintana who excelled on the descent to win ahead of Sergio Henao and Alberto Contador. The finish also featured in the 2012 Vuelta when Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Alberto Contador and Chris Froome arrived at the finish, with Rodriguez doubtlessly regretting that he didn't sprint all the way to the line as he was passed by Valverde just before the finish.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

The last few years the final road stage has been one for the GC riders but that is unlikely to be the case for this year's edition. The 160.2km stage from Eibar to Markina-Xemein is a hilly affair but probably not hard enough to separate the GC contenders.

 

The start and finishing cities are almost neighbouring cities and from the start, the riders head right from the start to the finish along slightly rolling roads. Here they take on a big rectangular loop that features the  category 2 Alto de Muniketagane (3.4km, 7.21%) in the beginning. The loop brings the riders back to the coast and back up to the finishing city. The terrain is only slightly rolling and the only danger will be the possibility of wind.

 

The riders are back at the finish after 97km of racing where they contest the first intermediate sprint. Interestingly, they will now to the course for the final day's time trial that will send them up two climbs. The riders go straight up the category 3 Alto de Gontzagaigana (3.2km, 6.09%) whose descent leads straight to the category 3 Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.1km, 6.75%), with the second intermediate sprint coming at the bottom. The descent is followed by a short flat stretch and then they are back in the finishing city after having previewed the final stage.

 

The stage ends with a hilly loop in the area around Eibar that will bring them up many of the same climbs they did in the previous stage. It starts off with the final intermediate sprint and then the hardest challenge of the day, the category 1 Alto de Ixua (6.6km, 6.59%). The riders already went up that climb in the finale of the previous stage but on that occasion it was from its harder, much steeper side. From the top 25.5km remain.

 

The descent brings them back to the starting city of Eibar from where they go up the category 2 Alto de Aiastia (5km, 5.5%) that already featured in the previous stage but again the riders go up from another side. The penultimate kilometre is rather steep as it has an average gradient of 9.5% and this should be a testing affair for most of the riders.

 

From the top 8.2km remain and they are mostly downhill. The descent ends just one kilometre from the finish and from there it is flat all the way to the line. There are two slight right-hand bends in the finale but the finish should not be too technical.

 

This stage could be a good opportunity for a breakaway as the fast finishers can't be sure to make it over the final climb with the best riders. The GC riders may test each other on the final climb but it should not be hard enough for the main contenders to separate themselves from each other and we should see a rather big group arrive at the finish. If the early break is caught, it could come down to a sprint from a smaller group but it will require a good set of climbing legs to be there in the finale.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

True to tradition, the race ends with a time trial around the city where the previous stage has ended and both the distance and the hilly profile are very similar to what is usually found for the final day race against the clock in the Basque Country. The stage is 25.9km long and is held on a small loop in the area west of Markina-Xemein that the riders already did in the final of the previous stage and so they will already know what to expect

 

The first 4.9km are only slightly uphill but then the riders go up the Alto de Gontzagaiana (3.2km, 6.09%). The top comes after 8.1km of racing and then it is downhill for the next 8.3km, albeit only very slightly in the final part.

 

Next up is the biggest challenge of the day, the Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.1km, 6.75%) whose top comes just 5.4km from the finish. The descent ends 2.5km from the line and then it is flat all the way to the finish. The roads in the finale are mostly straight but there is a sharp right-hand just 200m from the line. The final descent is not very technical and should be more about power than bike-handling skills.

 

With its lumpy profile and more than 7km of climbing, this stage is certainly not your usual time trial for the biggest specialists and if its rainy, the descents may make it an even trickier affair. In general, time trials in the Basque Country are usually dominated by the GC riders more than specialist as the terrain makes it more suited to the more versatile athletes and this is reflected in the list of winners. Alberto Contador won twice in 2008 and 2009 while Chris Horner showed just how difficult these stages can be when he was fastest in 2010. In 2011 and 2013, Tony Martin used a combination of power and good climbing legs to come away with the win while Samuel Sanchez used his great descending skills to win a very rainy and technical stage in 2012. Even though there has been a lot of climbing in the previous stages, the single most decisive stage in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is always the time trial and there is no doubt that the winner of this year's edition of the race will have to produce a very good performance on the final day.

 

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country is infamously known for its rainy weather and it rarely happens that the riders get through the Vuelta al Pais Vasco without spending at least a few days under torrential rain. Every year the riders cross their fingers, hoping for dry conditions, but no one seems to be listening to their wishes.

 

The 2014 edition may be a rare exception though. At the moment, the weather forecasts predict a beautiful start to the race as the riders will take off under bright sunshine, with the temperatures reaching an impressive 24 degrees. There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction for Monday's opening stage.

 

The trend will continue for Tuesday's stage as it will again be a day with bright sunshine. It will be a bit colder as the temperatures will only reach 16 degrees while there will be a light wind from a northerly direction. The riders may get their first taste of rain on Wednesday as wet conditions are forecasted for the stage finish. There will only be a very light wind from a northwesterly direction while the temperatures will reach 21 degrees.

 

The dry conditions will return for Thursday's queen stage as it will be sunny day with 19-degree temperatures and a light wind from a northeasterly direction. Rain may return for Friday's stage as it should be rather cloudy with the risk of showers. It will be a bit more windy, with the breeze coming from a northwesterly direction, while the temperatures will reach just 15 degrees.

 

Unfortunately, the riders may leave the Basque Country with a bad memory as more rain is forecasted for Saturday. There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction and it will be a rather cold day, with temperatures no expected to go beyond the 12-degree mark.

 

The favourites

The Vuelta al Pais Vasco is usually one for the real stage race riders as it is determined on the many climbs and in the final time trial. Due to the hilly nature of the course, no one will get anywhere without a solid climbing legs but the ascents are not that long and it is hard to open up too big gaps. By the time, the riders reach the final time trial, the difference between the best riders is usually a matter of seconds and not minutes, and this makes the final stage the most important. It is no coincidence that the leader's jersey has changed hands after the time trial four years in a row and as this year's course even seems to be less selective than it has been in the last few years, the time trial will only be even more crucial.

 

As in most Spanish stage races, there is no bonus seconds in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and so it will all come down to real time differences. On paper, it seems that only three stages will be hard enough to separate the overall contenders. Stage one should open the first gaps but it will probably be a matter of seconds that separate the best. The climbers need to make the most of Thursday's queen stage and then it will all be decided in the time trial which should open the biggest  gaps.

 

The race will have a double winner at the start as Alberto Contador will be back to try to add to the titles he took in 2008 and 2009. Last year he made his first return to the race since his most recent win but in what was generally a very poor season for the Spaniard, he could only manage 5th. This year, however, the tides seem to have changed and Contador is approaching his pre-suspension level.

 

Contador may not be there yet as it would have been almost unheard that he would not have beaten Joaquim Rodriguez at the Volta a Catalunya in his heydays. Nonetheless, his performance in the Tirreno-Adriatico and he solid riding last week clearly showed that he is getting closer to the rider that dominated the grand tours and week-long stage races for several years.

 

The Vuelta al Pais Vasco field is a strong one but it is clearly not at the level of almost Tour de France peloton that had gathered in Catalunya. This time there will be no Froome, Quintana or Rodriguez to challenge Contador and those were the only riders that could follow Contador in the mountains. Tejay van Garderen may have won the queen stage but that was more due to a tactical hesitation from the race favourites than a matter of the American being the strongest rider in the race.

 

If Contador has the legs he had in Italy, we can honestly only imagine Alejandro Valverde being strong enough to follow him in the two key climbing stages. Especially the queen stage with its many climbs and longer final ascent suits him well. Contador has never been the strongest when the gradients get very steep as they briefly get on the final climb of stage one but there are only very few real specialists in this race and they probably won't be strong enough to challenge Contador.

 

In Catalonia, Contador regretted that he hadn't been more aggressive in the queen stage as he felt that he had the legs to make Rodriguez crack and we wouldn't be surprised if he takes a solo win in the queen stage. To win the race overall, however, he needs to produce an outstanding time trial and this makes the outcome of the race a bit more uncertain.

 

Since coming back from suspension, Contador's time trialing skills have been the one to suffer the most and in 2013 he did some very poor time trials that made it hard to understand how he had beaten Fabian Cancellara in his heydays in a flat race against the clock at the 2009 Tour. As part of his revival, however, he did a great time trial in Algarve, only to again put doubts about his skills in the discipline by putting in a poor showing at Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

The Pais Vasco time trial, however, is of a completely different nature than the flat affair in Italy. This time it is almost up and almost a third of the distance will be uphill. While Contador has done some poor time trials on flat roads, he has actually been riding rather strongly in the hilly ones since coming back from suspension. At the 2012 Vuelta, he finished second behind Fredrik Kessiakoff on a rather difficult course but his standout performance came at last year's Tour de France. At a time where he was clearly struggling to keep up with Chris Froome in the mountains, he cam agonizingly close to beating the Brit in the very hilly time trial in the Alps. If he had changed his bike at the top of the final climb, he would probably have taken the win.

 

If Contador can reproduce that kind of performance on the final day in the Basque Country, he could even go on to with the time trial. In any case, his current condition should mean that he is not too far off the mark in this kind of time trial and as he is likely to take time on the best time trialists on the climbs, he is certainly the man to beat.

 

We openly admit that we have always regarded Tejay van Garderen's climbing skills to be too limited to make him a real contender in the WorldTour stage races and it is no wonder that his performances at the biggest level have been a pair of top 5 results in Paris-Nice which rarely features very long climb, a podium result in his breakthrough 2010 Dauphiné, and a 5th place in the 2012 Tour de France which was mostly decided on the time trials. Apart from those performances, he has always come up short against the best climbers and has been unable to challenge for the win on the WorldTour.

 

This year, however, the American has taken a massive step forward. The first signs came at the Tour of Oman where he was an impressive second behind Froome. That result could have been written down to a lack of condition for his rivals but when he backed it up with an excellent performance in the Volta a Catalunya, it was clear that it is no longer the old van Garderen. The American won the race's queen stage and finished third in a race that probably had the strongest field that we will see in a weeklong stage race in 2014 and the race was even without a time trial.

 

Admittedly, van Garderen was unable to follow Contador, Froome, Nairo Quintana, and Joaquim Rodriguez on the climbs but he was able to limit his losses so much that he could get back when the quartet slowed down. With the main favourites looking at each other, he sneaked away with Romain Bardet to take the biggest win of his career.

 

In the Basque Country, it will all be about limiting his losses in the two key stages for the climbers before using his excellent time trialing skills to deal his rivals a blow. Among the current GC riders, van Garderen is one of the very best time trialists as he proved when he finished 4th and 7th in the long TTs in the 2012 Tour. Compared to Contador, a flatter course would have been more beneficial and they may be on more equal terms on this kind of route. If van Garderen's improved climbing skills have not been costly for his ability to time trial, however, he may have his best ever chance to win a WorldTour race.

 

Alejandro Valverde has been absolutely outstanding all season. Like last year he has had a limited racing programme to stay fresh for his many big targets later in the year and he has even been challenging himself by riding on the gravel roads at Strade Bianche and the Flemish cobbles. Despite being on unfamiliar terrain, he has shown his competitive spirit by vying for the win and his domination of the Vuelta Andalucia and wins in the Vuelta a Murcia and Roma Maxima have made it his most successful season start since his comeback from suspension. Today he proved that he is in excellent condition when he put in a real demonstration of force by taking an impressive solo win in the GP Miguel Indurain.

 

He returns to the Vuelta al Pais Vasco for the first time since being narrowly beaten into second by Chris Horner in 2010 and the short, steep climbs suit him down to the ground. Despite being 33 years of age, he just seems to get better and better from year to year and he could easily leave the race with a couple of stage wins in his pocket.

 

To challenge for the overall will be a bit harder for Valverde but the Movistar captain is certainly one of the favourites. So far no one has been able to drop him on the climbs this season but the Spaniard has not done any WorldTour racing yet. This will be his only WorldTour stage race before June and will be a big test of his form compared to key Tour de France rivals and his condition for the Ardennes classics.

 

On paper, only Contador should be able to ride away from Valverde on the climbs and their short nature means that Valverde may even be able to match his compatriot. The first stage with a short, steep climb near the finish suits him down to the ground and he is a past winner in the Arrate finish when it featured in the 2012 Vuelta. He will regret the lack of bonus seconds that could have allowed him to start the time trial with a solid advantage.

 

His main challenge will be to match the best on the final day. Coming back from suspension, it seemed that Valverde had lost some of his improved time trialing skills but over the last year he has returned to his former strength. In fact, he did some very good time trials at last year's Tour and Vuelta and on this kind of course he should be in the mix. When he won the 2008 Criterium du Dauphiné, he laid the foundations by putting in a dominant ride on a similarly hilly course and this is a testament to his skills in this kind of challenge. It will be hard for him to match the very best on the final day but if he lives up to his promises in the road stages, he could start the final stage with a small advantage that could see him take the overall win.

 

The importance of the time trial makes Michal Kwiatkowski an obvious winner candidates. The Pole came out with all guns blazing when he won the hardest race of the challenge Mallora, beat Contador at the Volta ao Algarve and dropped the likes of Peter Sagan and Valverde at Strade Bianche. That put him under pressure to perform at Tirreno-Adriatico but the Italian race ended up as a demonstration of the fact that he is still not able to match the best in the real mountains.

 

His next big goals are the Ardennes classics and he will use the Vuelta al Pais Vasco to prepare for the hilly one-day races. With the shorter, more explosive climbs and the longer, more decisive time trial, the course suits him much better than the one he found in Italy a few weeks ago and he will have a better shot at the overall win.

 

Last year he finished 5th in the Fleche Wallonne and so the first stage with its steep climb should suit him well. His biggest challenge will be to keep up with the best on the Arrate but he can allow himself to lose a bit of time in that stage. On paper, he is the best time trialist among the GC riders and even though he would have benefited from a flatter course for the final stage - at least compared to the other GC contenders - he should be able to take time on most of his rivals on the final day. If he produces one of those standout time trials that he is capable of, he could take his first big win on the WorldTour.

 

Rui Costa is still in search of that elusive first win in the rainbow jersey and while he is mainly building for his goals at the Ardennes classics, he will try to get the monkey off his back in the Basque Country. Costa has been riding really well right from the beginning and seems to have been progressively getting better but the win has eluded him. So far he has no less than six 2nd places in the 2014 season and he is eager to break what seems to be the curse of the rainbow jersey.

 

In the Basque Country he finds the perfect terrain for him to excel. The climbs are short and explosive which suits his punchy nature well and with his fast sprint, he will be in the mix for the stage wins in both the two decisive climbing stages. The climb on the first stage may be a bit too steep to suit him perfectly but he should emerge as one of the best riders in the climbing stages.

 

His main challenge will be the time trial. Costa is a decent time trialist but he is not able to match the very best. Last year he won the mountain time trial at the Tour de Suisse and in 2012 he was 4th in the uphill time trial in Romandie and in general he performs rather well on tough courses. That is exactly what he will find on Saturday and so he should be in the mix. In a race where the time trial is the most important stage, however, it will be hard for him to come away with the win.

 

After a few years of stalled progress, Simon Spilak reached his best ever level at this time of the 2013 season. After winning the GP Miguel Indurain, he went on to take 4th in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco before being the only one to follow Chris Froome in the Romandie queen stage, taking 2nd overall behind the fabulous Brit. Since then, the Slovenian has been unable to reach the same kind of condition that made him one of the big revelations of the 2013 season but his solid climbing at Paris-Nice indicates that he may find back to his best.

 

If Spilak has the legs he had one year ago, he should be among the very best on the climbs. Last year he made a daring attack very early on the Arrate stage and almost held on to take the win and we can expect him to again ride aggressively. While not being a specialist, he has a solid time trial and last year he was fifth on the final day. In the Tour de Romandie, he was 5th on a flat course for the specialists to prove his great progress in the individual discipline. His time trialing skills may not be good enough to win the race but a podium spot should be within his grasp.

 

It is rare for riders to continue progressing into their late thirties but being a late newcomer to the road scene, Jean-Christophe Peraud bucks the trend. Having already finished in the Tour de France top 10, he took a massive step up in 2013 when he finished 3rd overall in Paris-Nice and almost had another Tour top 10 locked up when he crashed in the warm-up to the final time trial.

 

This year, however, he has been better than ever. Again he won the queen stage to the Mont Faron in the Tour Mediteraneen to finish 2nd overall but his real standout performance came at Tirreno-Adriatico. Against a high-level competition, he finished fourth overall and in the tough stage to Guardiagrele, he was even the second-best of the GC riders behind Contador, dropping Quintana on the steep wall to the finish. One week ago he won the Criterium International overall to prove that his condition is still great.

 

The Tour of the Basque Country is one of his favourite races and it is certainly for a good reason. The short, steep climbs suit the former mountain biker well and as a great time trialist - especially on hilly courses - the important of the final stage suits him perfectly. He has already finished in the top 10 on the final day thrice and in 2010 he used a great final stage to take fourth overall. With an improved level and the time trial being more important, he should be even closer to the best in this year's race and we shouldn't be surprised to see him continued the excellent Ag2r start in this race.

 

Astana line up without all their grand tour stars and this allows Tanel Kangert a rare chance to escape his domestique duties and lead the team. It is certainly no bad idea for Astana to allow their Estonian the chance to shine as the course suits him well. Among the GC riders, he is one of the very best time trialists and the importance of the final stage should allow him to take a great result.

 

Last year Kangert finished 3rd in the long Giro time trial and he was 2nd behind Costa in the mountain TT in the Tour de Suisse to prove that he also handles hilly courses rather well. This puts him right up there with the best time trialists in the world and if he hasn't lost too much time before Saturday, he will be a danger man.

 

Despite working for Vincenzo Nibali, he finished 11th and 14th in the 2013 Vuelta and Giro respectively and so there is no reason to believe that he will start the final stage with too much of a deficit to make up. He has been gradually building his condition and performed solidly, yet unspectacularly at Tirreno-Adriatico but should have improved since then. The explosive nature of the climbs doesn't suit him too well and he is likely to suffer a time loss on the climbs. However, a good time trial may allow him to finally step out of the shadows of his leaders.

 

Roman Kreuziger has been riding excellently right from the Tour of Oman and in Tirreno-Adriatico he was no less than impressive when he spent several kilometres in a solo move in the headwind on the final climb of stage four and still had enough left to take fourth on the stage. He finished that race in 3rd despite working for Contador and with the Ardennes being his first real objective, he should only be better by now.

 

Of course his main disadvantage is the fact that he will be working for Contador but in Tirreno he proved that he can finish high in the overall standings despite his team obligations. In this race the time trial is even more important and here he will not have to obey any team orders. If he can produce a great race against the clock, another top result may be in store for the Czech.

 

In the start of his professional career, Kreuziger's main asset was his solid time trial but his skills deteriorated dramatically over the years. Last year he gave signs of improvement and most notably he was fourth on the hilly course at the Tour. This year's Basque race against the clock is not too dissimilar to that stage and if he can reproduce that kind of result, another podium could be within reach for Kreuziger.

 

Finally, we will point to the strong Belkin duo of Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema. Both have finished 3rd in this race in the past and have all the skills to do well on this course. Gesink has been riding really well already from the Tour Down Under and was reported to be in great condition for Tirreno. Unfortunately, he fell ill but he claims to be feeling good ahead of the Basque race.

 

In 2011, Gesink took the world by storm and his improved time trialing was a great topic of conversation. He won the hilly TT at the Tour of Oman and his third place in the Basque Country was mainly based on a good ride against the clock. He has had a couple of difficult seasons and has not found back to his past TT strength but things indicate that he may do so in 2014. The climbs may be a bit too explosive to suit him perfectly but if he can continue his upwards trajectory, he will be in podium contention.

 

While Gesink has been riding well this season, Mollema has had a slower start. At Tirreno, he openly admitted not to be good enough yet but with his first big goal at the Ardennes approaching, he should be much better now. He may not be a TT specialist but on tough courses he usually performs rather well. In 2012 he finished 3rd in this race by taking 3rd in the final time trial and this year's course for the final stage should suit him well. The short, explosive climbs should suit him well and the combination of those two skills make him an obvious podium candidate.

 

***** Alberto Contador

**** Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde

*** Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Simon Spilak

** Jean-Christophe Peraud, Tanel Kangert, Roman Kreuziger, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema

* Benat Intxausti, Ryder Hesjedal, Tony Martin, Tom Danielson, Cadel Evans, Samuel Sanchez, Pieter Weening, Ion Izagirre, Luis Leon Sanchez, Bart De Clercq, Tom Dumoulin, Damiano Caruso, Wout Poels, Warren Barguil