There will be no chance to ease into this year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco as the race kicks off with what is just one of two stages for the climbers to make a difference. With a brutally steep wall coming just 6.7km from the finish, time gaps will open up right from the beginning and we will get a first idea of who's going to win the race right from the start of the race.

 

The course

The race kicks off with a classic Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage that will require the GC riders to be on their guard right from the very start of the race. At the same time, it is one of the few chances for the climbers to take time on the time trialists and so they have to make the most of it.

 

The Basque Country is a rather tiny area and so most of the stages are made up as complicated affair where the riders zigzag their way around a chosen city, often using many of the same roads several times and passing the finish on more than one occasion. That is exactly the nature of the opening 153.4km stage that is a very hilly affair starting and finishing in the city of Ordizia.

 

From the start, the riders will first do a loop in the area east of the city where they will go up three climbs.  First up is the category 2 Alto de Abaltzisketa (3km, 8.17%) which is a rather constant affair before levelling out near the top. The top comes after 19.7km and is followed by the very steep category 2 Alto de Lazkaomendi (1.3km, 13.08%) at the 28.8km mark. Having passed the first intermediate sprint, the riders go up the category 3 Alto de Gabria (2.6km, 8.65%) before taking on a long gradual descent back to Ordizia.

 

The riders will pass the main city after 69.2km of racing and now it is time for another loop around the city where they will cover some of the same roads as they did on the first one. At first the roads are flat but the hostilities begin at the 91.4km mark when the riders reach the top of the first of three climbs that come in quick succession. First up is another passage of the Abaltzisketa but instead of continuing to the Lazkaomendi, the riders will get a first taste of the climb that is set to decide the stage. After 101.2km of racing, they reach the top of the short, steep category 2 Alto de Gaintza (2.3km, 13.04%) that will play a crucial role when it is tackled later in the day deep into the finale. After the descent, the riders do the final intermediate sprint and then they go up the category 3 Alto de Okorro (2km, 9.5%).

 

After than climb, it is time for some recovery as the descent is following by a long stretch of slightly descending roads where the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint. The final kicks off when the riders start the longest climb of the day, the category 2 Alto de Orendain (5.3km, 5.19%) which has a rather constant 6% gradient for the first 3km before flattening out for the final part.

 

The top comes 21.3km from the finish but it is still too early for the favourites to make a move. The rider stay at a plateau for several kilometres before taking on the descent. It leads directly to the bottom of the Gaintza  which will be tackled for a second time and this time, it will be decisive. The first kilometre has a 10% gradient and the second kilometre is simply brutal at 16%. The final 300m have an average of 13.33% and leads to the top just 6.7km from the finish.

 

Then it is a fast descent that continues all the way down to the 2km to go mark when the roads flatten out. There is a little 300m 5% bump just after the flamme rouge but the nasty sting in the tail is the 8% gradient on the final 300m of the stage. The finish is rather technical as two sharp 90-degree turns come in quick succession and lead onto a straight road that has a sharp right-hand bend just a few hundred metres from the line.

 

Ordizia has not hosted a finale of a Vuelta al Pais Vasco in recent years but the race has used the kind of finish with a short steep ramp close to end on several occasions. In 2011 the race opened with a very similar stage and on that day Joaquim Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, Andreas Klöden and Chris Horner finished 6 seconds ahead of a 6-rider chase group while 13 riders followed 12 seconds later. Ordizia - which is the home of the one-day race Prueba Villafranca - is a neighbouring city of Beasain which was the scene of the dramatic penultimate stage of last year's race won by Richie Porte and the nature of that stage says a lot about the terrain in the area.

 

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country is infamously known for its rainy weather and it rarely happens that the riders get through the Vuelta al Pais Vasco without spending at least a few days under torrential rain. Every year the riders cross their fingers, hoping for dry conditions, but no one seems to be listening to their wishes.

 

This year the riders will kick off the race in very unusual circumstances as it will be almost like a summer day in the Basque Country. At the moment, the weather forecasts predict a beautiful start to the race as the riders will take off under bright sunshine, with the temperatures reaching an impressive 24 degrees. There will only be a light wind from a southwesterly direction  for Monday's opening stage and as the riders zigzag their way through a very small area, they will have all kinds of wind directions throughout the day. Importantly, there will be a tailwind on the final climb and back to the finish in Ordizia, making it harder to maintain any hard-earned advantage during the run-in. Inside the final few kilometres, there will be a crosswind until the riders turn into a direct headwind for the final 300m.

 

The favourites

This year's course for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is not as hard as it usually is and this means that the climbers have to make the most of their options whenever they see just the slightest chance to take some time. On paper, it seems that they have two opportunities: tomorrow's opening stage and Thursday's queen stage.

 

While Thursday's stage obviously gives them the chance to open up the biggest gaps, it would be a big mistake to underestimate tomorrow's stage. With no less than 8 categorized climbs, it looks like a small, short classic, and there will be very little room for recovery in the second part of the stage.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE line up at the race with a team full of classics specialists and they had made this stage a big goal. In the last few days, they have done a recon and they have be surprised by the toughness of the course. In the past, stages in the Basque Country have often proved tougher than many expected and tomorrow's could be one of those unpleasant surprises.

 

The nice weather conditions will make things less selective but the climbs should be enough to take their toll. Even though they are not very long, most of them are really steep and the gradients will be enough to make a selection.

 

The terrain will be very difficult to control and so we can expect a rather fast start to the race as many riders will see this as a chance to take a breakaway win. Opening stages are often a bit tricky as there is no GC and so it is not always clear which teams have to take responsibility for the chase. In big races with obvious favourites, however, the big teams usually make sure that things are kept firmly under control and the early break won't have many chances.

 

We can expect Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo to be the main animators of the stage. First of all, they want to make sure that no rider from the break gets an unnecessary advantage and so they will close it down to keep their GC options open. Secondly, both Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador have to gain time of some of the better time trialists ahead of the final stage and they want to make use of this stage to create the first selection. This will force them into work as they need to make the race hard. We will probably see one or both of the teams wide tempo over the four climbs preceding the Gaintza to put their rivals under pressure. Movistar have a really strong team and they will be able to make this race very tough.

 

As the penultimate climb is not very tough, it will all come down to a battle between the favourites on the very steep Alto de Gaintza. It is not very long and so time gaps will be limited but its gradients should be enough to blow the peloton to pieces. At the top, the main group will probably be spread all over the road and then it will be interesting to see how much regrouping will take place.

 

The big favourites has to be Alejandro Valverde. The Movistar leader put in a demonstration of power in yesterday's GP Miguel Indurain and beamed of confidence when he was asked for his reaction to the win. He didn't choose to wait for the final uphill sprint but attacked from afar to put a minute into his nearest chasers, proving his excellent condition.

 

Tomorrow's stage suits him perfectly. While he may come up short against Alberto Contador on the longer climbs, he should be able to follow the Tinkoff-Saxo captain on the shorter ones. He is much more explosive than Contador and may even drop his compatriot if he tries to go off on his own. Being a past winner of the Fleche Wallonne, he has proved that he handles very steep gradients really well and he is an excellent descender that will be able to benefit from the downhill section during the run-in back to the line.

 

If Valverde gets clear with Contador and maybe one or two more riders, there should be plenty of interest in keeping the move going. Contador will be riding for the GC while Valverde will have the further motivation of a possible stage win. If they arrive together at the finish, Valverde's main asset is of course his fast sprint as Michal Kwiatkowski is the only other GC rider who can potentially match Valverde in a sprint. With Kwiatkowski's ability to stay with the best being a bit uncertain, an in-form Valverde must be the favourite.

 

The rider who has the biggest chance of upsetting the Movistar captain is Kwiatkowski. The Pole has a very fast sprint as he proved when he almost beat Peter Sagan in a sprint at last year's Tour de France and that is an important asset in a stage like tomorrow's. His condition may be a bit uncertain as he hasn't raced since the Tirreno but with the Ardennes being his big goal, he should be going well.

 

Kwiatkowski was riding excellently in the early part of the season when he won the Volta al Algarve, the Strade Bianche and the hardest race of the Challenge Mallorca but the Tirreno underlined that he still can't keep up with the best on the longer ascents. Tomorrow, however, the climbs are of a much shorter, explosive nature and here Kwiatkowski will find himself in his preferred terrain. He is an excellent descender and strong in the flat section back to the finish and so will have the chance to rejoin the front if he gets dropped in the finale. If he is there at the finish, his sprint makes him a danger man.

 

Alberto Contador has indicated that he may find back to his best level and even though he is still not his usual dominant self, he has been riding really well since the beginning of the year. This race is his final target in the spring and he will be eager to gain as much time as possible right from the beginning of the race.

 

Hence, we can expect Contador try to split things on the final climb. In the Volta a Catalunya, he didn't find the steep gradients needed to drop his rivals, but tomorrow he can't complain about a lack of steepness. On the other hand, Contador usually needs longer climbs to really excel and tomorrow's stage may be a bit too explosive to suit him well. At the same time, history proves that he is not at his best when it gets very steep and this may be a disadvantage in tomorrow's stage.

 

Nonetheless, Contador is climbing so well at the moment that he may ride away from everyone else on the Gaintza. To win he will have to arrive alone at the finish but if anyone has the chance to do so, it must be Contador.

 

World champion Rui Costa is still searching that elusive first win in the rainbow jersey after taking no less than sixth second places in the early part of the season and tomorrow's stage offers him an opportunity. Short, explosive climbs suit him really well and he has the versatile skills to excel in this kind of stage. He hasn't raced since the Paris-Nice where he was riding well even though it was clear that he was not in top condition. With the Ardennes being his first objective, he should be going better by now.

 

Costa has a rather fast sprint but going up against the likes of Valverde and Kwiatkowski, it will be difficult. Hence, he will probably have to use a bit of tactical astuteness to come away with the win but as he proved at last year's Worlds he is a very wily athlete. Costa has a good chance of making it over the final climb with the best riders and then it will be a good idea to keep an eye on him in the final run-in to the line.

 

Simon Gerrans is targeting the Ardennes classics and uses this race as his final tune-up. The Australian is a master in picking out select stages to target and when he does so, he usually comes away with the win. Orica-GreenEDGE have done nothing to hide that tomorrow's stage is a big objective and Gerrans will be their main rider.

 

The team has been unpleasantly surprised by the toughness of the stage and the climbs may be a bit too hard for Gerrans to stay with the best climbers. As an Ardennes specialist, however, Gerrans excels on short, steep ascent and if he wants to be in the mix in the biggest classics, he needs to be able to handle the kind of terrain that tomorrow offers. Gerrans has been hampered by heath issues in the early part of the season and hasn't raced an awful lot. He even crashed in today's Vuelta a la Rioja and we doubt that he is yet in a condition to follow the best. If he makes it over the final climb in the front group, however, his fast sprint will make him a danger man.

 

Philippe Gilbert has not been riding very well this season and he is still a shadow of the riders that dominated the 2011 season. Hence, he is certainly no favourite in tomorrow's stage but he remains a potential winner and so deserves the status as an outsider.

 

The stage may be a bit too hard for a classics rider like Gilbert but if he makes it over the front group not too far behind the best climbers he may return on the descent. The short, explosive climbs suit him well and that scenario is certainly not impossible. Everybody knows that he excels in this kind of uphill sprints and even though Valverde will be a hard nut to crash, no one can ever rule out Gilbert.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Tom-Jelte Slagter was maybe the strongest rider in the Paris-Nice and a mechanical maybe took away the overall win from him. Yesterday he proved in the GP Miguel Indurain that he is still riding excellently well when he finished second behind Valverde.

 

Slagter usually struggles on long climb and long distances but he won't find any of those in tomorrow's stage. There is a risk that the stage will be too tough for the Dutchman but he has clearly stepped up his game this year. While he is clearly beaten by his faster rivals in a flat sprint, he excels when it is uphill. Tomorrow's finishing straight has an 8% gradient and makes it perfectly suited to the punchy Dutchman. It will be hard for him to beat Valverde in this kind of finish but due to his improvement no one can rule him out.

 

Bauke Mollema is mostly knowing for his grand tour results but he is actually a great Ardennes contenders as well. The hilly one-day races are a genuine objective for him and so his condition should have improved compared to his disappointing showing at Tirreno. The short, explosive climbs suit him well and he is actually a very fast sprinter, especially in uphill finishes. He will find tomorrow's stage to his liking and even it will be very hard for him to beat a rider like Valverde, it will be a good idea to keep an eye on him.

 

CyclingQuotes's stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Michal Kwiatkowski, Alberto Contador

Outsiders: Rui Costa, Simon Gerrans, Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Tom-Jelte Slagter, Bauke Mollema