The 2015 Vuelta al Pais Vasco is harder than usual and that will already be evident on the opening day. The first stage is not one for the GC riders to make a move but with a tough climb in the finale, it is a challenging affair that will require the fast finishers to dig very deep if they want to have a shot at the first leader’s jersey in the race that is often regarded as the hardest weeklong stage race on the WorldTour.

 

The course

The race kicks off with a classic Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage that will require the GC riders to be on their guard right from the very start of the race. It is not a day to make a difference but a difficult climb in the finale makes it a pretty unpredictable affair.

 

As usual in Pais Vasco, the 162.7km stage is a pretty short affair and it starts and finishes in Bilbao. Compared to most stages in the race, it doesn’t have an awful lot of climbing. The first part is made up of a loop on the northeasterly outskirts of the start and finishing city and even though it has plenty of rolling terrain, there are no major climbs. The first categorized ascent comes at the 101km mark when the riders go up the category 3 Alto de Morga (2km, 4.50%). 16km later, they will tackle the category 2 Alto del Vivero (4km, 8.13%) before they return back to Bilbao. The climb is pretty irregular and has two kilometres with gradient of more than 9%. The steepest section comes near the top

 

Instead of crossing the finish line, the riders will turn around and head back along the same roads, they used in the first part of the stage. Here they will again tackle the Alto del Vivero (4.3km, 8.6%) but from another, more difficult direction. It has a very steep first kilometre at 10.5% and the third kilometre averages 10%. The final 300m have a similar gradient. The summit comes with just 13.5km to go and from here the riders head back to the finish via a long gradual descent which ends just 1.5km from the finish. From here, it is flat all the way back to the finish. There are no major technical issues, with the final turn coming with 700m to go and then it is straight all the way to the finish.

 

Bilbao is one of the biggest cities in the Basque country but surprisingly it has not featured in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco for years. It played host to the Vuelta a Espana in 2011 when Igor Anton took a hugely popular home win as the Spanish grand tour returned to the Basque Country for the first time since the 70s.

 

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country is famously known for its rainy conditions but this year it seems that the riders will have an unusually pleasant edition of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Rain is only forecasted for the end of the week and instead, there will be lots of sunshine for the opening stage. The temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 13 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind in the first part of the big loop and a tailwind in the second part. On the final small loop with the Alto del Vivero, the riders will again first have a headwind and then a tailwind during the run back to the finish. On the finishing straight, there will be a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

The first stage of a stage race can always be pretty tricky as there is no GC leader whose team will take responsibility for the chase. If the stage doesn’t have an obvious favourite, it may be difficult to organize a chase behind the early breakaway and this sometimes allows the brave escapees to get rewarded for their efforts. Most recently it happened in the opening stage of the Volta a Catalunya where the fact that the sprint teams didn’t believe in their fast guys on a hilly route – and wrong information about the time gaps – made it possible for the three escapees to nearly upset the GC favourites.

 

The Vuelta al Pais Vasco opener is maybe even trickier than the one in Catalonia. Compared to most Basque stages, it has a pretty small amount of climbing but the finale is very difficult. The Alto del Vivero is a very hard climb as more than half of the ascent averages more than 10%. The flatter sections are also pretty difficult with gradients of around 7% and the climb would definitely be tough enough for the GC riders to make some moves.

 

That is unlikely to happen though as the final 13.5km run back to the finish in Bilbao will make room for some regrouping. However, the climb will be very hard for the fast finishers to survive and even though the sprinters in this race are all very good climbers, this climb may be a bit too tough for them.

 

It all depends on the speed at which the climb will be tackled. In any case, it means that the sprint teams will be a bit reluctant to organize a chase. They may prefer to save their energy for stage 2 which is likely to end in a bunch sprint and this could open the door for a break.

 

In flat stages, there is no real incentive to go on the attack as the early break rarely stays away but in this stage, it is definitely worth giving it a try. Everybody knows that a break has a chance to make it to the finish and so we can expect a fast start with lots of attacks. We wouldn’t be surprised if it takes an hour for the early break to be formed.

 

When the group has taken off, it will be interesting to see if any of the sprint teams will take control. On paper, Sky, Orica-GreenEDGE and Etixx-QuickStep have the fastest finishers in this race but those teams also have GC ambitions in this race. As they are probably all a bit uncertain about their chances in such a tough finale, they may leave it to the GC teams to take control.

 

Teams like Astana, Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo who are usually among the favourites in these races, don’t go into this race with their main riders and instead everybody will be looking at Movistar. With Nairo Quintana on the roster, the Spanish team is clearly the one to beat in this race and if the sprint teams decide not to take action, they will probably have to do the majority of the work.

 

If the break doesn’t contain any real GC threat, they may allow the group to stay away and it seems that the escapees really have a chance in this race. On the other hand, Movistar are unlikely to take any chances and other teams like FDJ, Etixx-QuickStep, BMC, Katusha and Sky may lend them a hand. Furthermore, the fight for position will be very intense in the run-in to the final climb and that will automatically ramp up the speed. As a consequence, the most likely scenario is that the break will be caught but we definitely won’t rule out a breakaway win.

 

It will be very interesting to see what happens on the final climb. Usually Sky would hit the front to set their fast tempo that keeps them in a good position and prevents any attacks. With Froome and Porte not in this race, they will probably take a more passive role and it will be left to other teams to do the damage.

 

Movistar are most likely to use their strength to keep Quintana in a good position but the pace may not be as fast as it has often been when Sky have had a race favourite. This may make it easier for the fast finishers to survive. However, it also opens the door for late attacks and we should definitely see some moves from some strong climbers who are not among the big GC contenders.

 

A strong group may have a chance to stay away but the most likely outcome is still a sprint from a small group. The main challenge will be to find out which riders are going to survive this very tough climb.

 

It is rare for Team Sky to go into a stage race without an obvious winner candidate and so they may be chasing more goals than just the GC in this race. That includes stage wins with Ben Swift who lines up in the Basque Country on the back of an impressive showing in the Settimana Coppi e Bartali. The Brit produced one of his best climbing performances ever when he won the very tough second stage and he defended himself very well in the queen stage where he stayed with most of the best climbers.

 

That stage was a lot tougher than this one and it clearly indicates that it is possible for Swift to stay with the best on such a tough ascent. The field in this race is obviously at a different level but last year he showed that he can do really well in the Basque Country too. In a very hard penultimate stage he made it into a very small group of GC riders before taking an easy sprint win. The final climb in this race may be a bit harder but looking at the entire stage, it is not as tough as the one he won 12 months ago.

 

While he has been climbing very well this year, Swift has had a harder time in the sprints where he has usually been poorly positioned. In this race, however, a pretty small field is likely to arrive at the finish and Swift is likely to be the only sprinter to have made it into the lead group. Sky have a very strong team and should have lots of riders in that group. If they can position Swift reasonably, there is a good chance that he is the fastest as this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

We are very curious to see how Michael Matthews handles this climb. The Australian has positioned himself as one of the best uphill sprinters in the world and last year he won very tough stages in both the Giro and the Vuelta. In the latter race, however, he suffered more than John Degenkolb on the longer climbs and the Alto del Vivero could be too tough for him.

 

Matthews has lot a bit of weight and should be climbing better than ever. In Milan-Sanremo, he was able to go with the attacks on the Poggio and this indicates that he has stepped up his level. On the other hand, Paris-Nice proved that Swift is still a better climber than the Australian who may find the Alto del Vivero a bit too tough. He is surrounded by a formidable team and if he makes it into the lead group, he will be the obvious favourite but it will be hard for him to make it over the final climb.

 

Fabio Felline had a tough first year with Trek and he failed to achieve any major results. However, he has been in outstanding condition right from the start of the 2015 season. Already in Murcia, he showed how much he has improved his climbing when he finished third despite doing the lead-out for Bauke Mollema on the tough climb to the finish. He climbed outstandingly in the two one-day races in the Drome region and he was one of the strongest on Poggio in Milan-Sanremo. Last week he finished third overall in the Criterium International after his win in the time trial and his best ever climbing performance on the Col de l’Ospedale.

 

With his current condition, we are pretty sure that Felline will be able to survive the final climb but the main challenge for him will be to win the sprint. While he has been climbing really well, he has been sprinting pretty poorly and he will have little chance against the likes of Swift or Matthews. However, this race could turn out to be very selective and in that case, Felline may turn out to be the fastest rider.

 

For the third year in a row, Philippe Gilbert is skipping the cobbled classics in favour of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. His main goal is to build condition for the Ardennes but he also wants to win a maiden stage in the race. Until now he has not had much luck in this race but the opening stage may mark a turnaround for him as it is tailor-made for him.

 

Gilbert may not have had a lot of results yet but he has actually looked pretty strong in most of the races he has done. That follows the trend from 2014 where he ended the season on a high with an excellent climbing performance in the Tour of Beijing and great performances at the Worlds and Il Lombardia. He hasn’t raced since he crashed out of Milan-Sanremo but there is no reason to suggest that he will be at a high level.

 

If the GC riders go full gas on the Alto del Vivero, it will be too tough for Gilbert but that is unlikely to happen. This means that he is likely to be part of a select group that sprints for the win and then he will definitely give it a shot. BMC have one of the strongest teams in this race and he can expect to be surrounded by lots of teammates. If they can take control in the finale and deliver Gilbert in a good position, he has the speed to win.

 

Gianni Meersman is perfectly suited to the Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta al Pais Vasco. The Belgian is very strong on short climbs and he is able to win a bunch sprint from a reduced peloton. Two years ago he won two stages in Catalonia and now he has set his sights on the Basque Country.

 

Meersman looked very strong in the second half of March but he fell ill and had to skip the Catalonian race. He has recovered for Pais Vasco but it remains to be seen how much impact, it has had on his shape. The final climb may be a bit too steep and long for him and we doubt that he will be able to survive this tough challenge. If he is there at the finish, however, he will be one of the favourites.

 

If Meersman is not up for the challenge, Etixx-QuickStep still have another card to play. World champion Michal Kwiatkowski is going for the GC in this race and he is unlikely to take any risks in a sprint. However, he is still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey and if the race turns out to be very selective, it may be left to mostly the GC riders to sprint it out. In that case, he will be one of the fastest and one of the clear favourites.

 

Movistar are in the Basque Country to win the race with Nairo Quintana and they don’t have many other goals. However, Giovanni Visconti may be given a chance to do the sprint in this stage if Quintana is safe and a rather small group arrives at the finish. The Italian had a terrible 2014 season when he fractured his leg in Australia and missed the first part of the season. In the Tour de France, he got closer to his best level but in 2015 he has again been set back by illness. Now he seems to be back in good condition and this stage suits him really well. He has a fast sprint and is a very good climber but probably needs a pretty small group to win.

 

Tony Gallopin is not aiming for the GC in this race as he has his eyes on the Ardennes classics. He has just finished a training camp and it remains to be seen how well he has recovered. However, he will keep his eyes open for stage opportunities and tomorrow’s stage may offer him a chance to shine. The final climb suits him really well and he has a fast sprint. Unfortunately, he rarely wins those sprints but he clearly has the speed to be up there.

 

If the race turns out to be very selective, Daniel Moreno may also take his chance. The Spaniard has rarely been very strong in this race and we doubt that he will be a big GC contender. However, he has a very fast sprint and if a small group of favourites arrive at the finish together, he is likely to be one of the fastest.

 

Tom Dumoulin usually goes for GC in the WorldTour stage races but this time he will have a different approach. His goal is to prepare for the Ardennes classics and he will mainly be focused on the final time trial. However, he is both a strong climber and has a fast sprint and he may decide to try his hand if a small group arrives at the finish.

 

The same goes for Rinaldo Nocentini, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Jelte Slagter and Bauke Mollema. None of them will be able to win a bunch sprint but if the race is selective, they may try their hand in a sprint. It may be hard for them to beat a rider like Kwiatkowski from a group of GC riders but they should be in the mix and could sprint onto the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Ben Swift

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Fabio Felline

Outsiders: Philippe Gilbert, Gianni Meersman, Michal Kwiatkowski, Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Tony Gallopin, Daniel Moreno, Tom Dumoulin, Rinaldo Nocentini, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Jelte Slagter, Bauke Mollema, Angel Vicioso