The GC riders had their first big battle in today's very tough opening stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but they should be able to lick their wounds in tomorrow's stage. After a tough start, there are no categorized climbs in the second part of the route and the stage seems to offer the fast finishers their first chance to shine in this year's edition of the Basque race.

 

The course

There are no flat stages in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but like the recent Volta a Catalunya, the Basque race is usually a treat for the fast finishers who can overcome a few climbs. Due to the hilly profiles, all the big sprinters stay away from the race and this opens the door for some of the more versatile riders amongst the fast finishers. They will get their first chance on the second day of racing which brings the rider over 155.8km from Ordizia to Urdax-Urdazubi near the coast in what should be the easiest stage of the race.

 

The first part of the stage consists of a long easterly run from Ordizia and this is where the hills of the stage are located. The first 20km are mostly flat but things will change when the riders go up the 2nd category Alto de Gorosmendi (6.2km, 5.89%) which is one of the longest in the race and is a very regular affair. The top comes after 30.7km of racing but is only followed by a very short descent before the riders continue up the category 2 Alto de Usategieta (4km, 5.5%).

 

After the top, it is finally time for a long descent. At the bottom the riders travel in a northerly direction along flat roads before tackling a small loop that sends them up the category 2 Alto de la Piedad (2.5km, 8%). From there, the riders continue in a northeasterly direction towards the finishing city and they now face the major obstacle of the day, the category 1 Alto de Lizaeta (7.9km, 4.49%). The gradient is rather deceptive as it is very easy at the bottom but has a rather steep middle section.

 

From the top, however, 50.6km still remain and they start off with a long downhill run to the finishing city where the riders will contest the first intermediate sprint. The riders now tackle a 35.7km loop in the area just north of the city. Even though the terrain is rolling, there are no categorized climbs and the only highlights are the final two intermediate sprints 29.6km and 20km from the finish respectively.

 

Inside the final 10km, there is a small uncategorized climb before it goes down to the finish. The descent ends at the flamme rouge while the final kilometre is slightly uphill, with 2% in the first 500m and 4% in the second half. There is a sharp right-hand turn at the flamme rouge and the riders go straight through a roundabout 500m from the line.

 

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country is infamously known for its rainy weather and so many riders were surprised by the summerlike conditions that greeted them in today's opening stage. Many have referred to the unusual 30-degree temperatures as an explanation for their below-par showing, with Rui Costa being one of the riders who needed to acclimatize himself to a weather he hadn't expected.

 

Those riders will be pleased to know that it will be colder in tomorrow's stage. On a partly sunny day, the temperatures are expected to reach a rather pleasant 15 degrees, making it a perfect day for bike racing.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part of the stage before turning into a headwind. On the final circuit, they will mostly have a crosswind while there will be a tailwind on the final stretch to the finish in Undaz-Urdazubi. There will be a crosswind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

As we had predicted, the climbers went all out in a quest to take time on the time trialists in today's first stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco as the easier course means that they have to make use of every opportunity that the race presents. Contador put in an excellent showing and the time gaps between the best riders were probably a bit bigger than expected.

 

The GC riders now head into two easier days as the GC battle will be put on hold until Thursday's queen stage. Despite the inclusion of a category 1 climb, tomorrow's stage should be the easiest of the entire race. It seems to be a classical Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage where the sprinters have to overcome some solid climbing before battling it out in a bunch sprint finish.

 

The only potential danger in this area  is the wind but even though the riders will have a crosswind for most of the stage, it should not be strong enough to pose any danger. It may create some nervous racing, especially on the final circuit, but it would be a great surprise if things split up.

 

Due to the hilly terrain, none of the pure sprinters have travelled to the Basque Country and instead the door is open for some of the fast finishers that climb solidly. Races like the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Volta a Catalunya are usually a treat for those riders and often present a number of opportunities for the more versatile sprinters. In Catalonia, Luka Mezgec benefited from these easier stages to take no less than three stage wins and there are a couple of fast finishers that have marked out the next two days as their opportunities to shine.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are in this race with a clear focus on stage wins. They had put a lot of focus on the opening stage which they deemed perfectly suited to Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini but it ended up being one for the real climbers. With Michael Matthews on the roster, they have one of the fastest riders in the race and there is no chance that they will let tomorrow's opportunity slip away.

 

We can expect the Australian team to take control of the day's proceedings and Christian Meier and Adam Yates are likely to spend an awful lot of time on the front of the peloton, chasing down the early escape. They may get a bit of assistance from Sky which play a rather unusual role in this race. With none of their big GC riders in the race, the team will have less of a focus on the GC and with Ben Swift they have one of the fastest riders in the race. In the Volta a Catalunya, Cannondale proved that they were not afraid of working to set up a bunch sprint and it wouldn't be a surprise if they lend a hand to the chase too.

 

Hence, it is hard to imagine that the stage won't end in a bunch sprint. The final two uncategorized climbs seem to be easy affair with average gradients of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively and that is certainly not enough to challenge the sprinters in this race. At best, they may serve as launching pads for late attacks but it is hard to imagine that any of those will pay off.

 

The favourite for the stage has to be Michael Matthews. The Australian has been riding really well this season and put excellent climbing legs on show at Paris-Nice. He hasn't got the chance to sprint too much this year but yesterday he proved that he still has a fast turn of speed when he won the Vuelta a la Rioja in a sprint finish.

 

Matthews is certainly no pure sprinter. In a pure bunch sprint, he is usually not fast enough to mix it up with the best but on the other hand he is one of the best climbers among the fast finishers. Compared to many other riders, he benefits from a hard day in the saddle and he will find tomorrow's lumpy stage to his liking. By winning the bunch sprint in Madrid in last year's Vuelta, he proved that his speed even allows him to be in contention at the end of the easier days.

 

The finishing straight is slightly uphill but that won't be a disadvantage for Matthews. As a past winner of the Stirling stage at the Tour Down Under, he has proved his skills in that kind of sprints and if anything, it will be an advantage for him. With Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini and the Yates brothers at his side, he has a great team of fast riders to support him and that will be a clear advantage. The combination of team support, an uphill sprint and his fast legs make Matthews the man to beat.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Ben Swift. After a couple of disappointing and injury-plagued seasons, the Brit has returned to his roots. He first made himself known on the bigger scene when he performed well in Pais Vasco as a young Katusha rider. The hard terrain suits him down to the ground as he climbs well and has a very fast finish. In the last few years, he has given the cobbled classics a shot but now he has returned to the terrain where he really excels.

 

Swift is currently in excellent condition as he proved by finishing third in Milan-Sanremo. He went on to take a win on a tough opening half-stage at Coppi e Bartali and tomorrow's terrain will only be an advantage for the in-form Brit. Compared to some of his rivals, he would probably have preferred a flat sprint but the light gradients shouldn't be too much of a disadvantage. WIth Peter Kennaugh as a lead-out man, he has solid team support but is likely to come up short against the might of Orica-GreenEDGE. When it comes down to speed, however, he is on equal terms with Matthews and it should be a closely fought battle between the two main sprinters in the race.

 

Philippe Gilbert is using this race to prepare for the Ardennes classics and he showed great condition in today's stage that turned out to be one for the climbers. He will be eager to get a confidence boost from this race and he will have marked out stages 2, 3 and 5 as his chances to shine.

 

Gilbert is a puncheur but no real sprinter and in a flat sprint he would have no chance against the likes of Matthews and Swift. Uphill sprints, however, are one of his strengths and there is little doubt that he will give it a shot in tomorrow's stage. To be really competitive against the likes of Swift and Matthews, he would probably have preferred a steeper slope but in the past he has excelled in finishes that were easier than tomorrow's.

 

Belkin got their race off to a very bad start as Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema both lost precious time in  the opening stage and even though the team remains hopeful that Gesink will finish in the top 10, the team will now seek stage wins a bit more actively. Their first opportunity comes tomorrow where they will play the Paul Martens card in the final sprint.

 

As an Ardennes specialist, Martens has a solid sprint and in this race he is one of the fastest riders. In the Volta a Catalunya, he mixed it up with many of the fast riders in this race and proved that they are much at the same level. The uphill sprint should suit him well and increase his winning chances and he has great lead-out support from David Tanner. He was ill in the days leading up to the race which forced him out of the Volta Limburg Classic and this makes his form a bit questionable. In an uphill  sprint, however, he cannot be ruled out and he should be in the mix.

 

Cannondale didn't get their race off to the best start either as Damiano Caruso lost time in today's stage and so stage wins will now be their main focus. They have lined up Daniele Ratto as their sprinter and the Italian is perfectly suited to this terrain.

 

Ratto is no pure sprinter but in this race he should be in the mix. The uphill sprint should be no disadvantage as he proved when he performed excellently in last year's Vuelta a Burgos. With Michel Koch, Davide Villella, Caruso and Jean-Marc Marino, he has one of the best lead-out trains in the race and this will be a very important asset in tomorrow's sprint. In Catalonia, he came up short on a few occasions and there are certainly faster riders in this race but if his team delivers him in a good position, he certainly has a chance.

 

Lotto Belisol have again lined up Tosh van der Sande as their sprinter in this race and the young Belgian is one of several riders who were also active in the Volta a Catalunya. In that race, he did well by taking a number of top 10 results and even won the bunch sprint behind the breakaway on the penultimate stage. Like the other fast finishers, van der Sande is no real sprinter and he likes the lumpy terrain in the Basque Country. He will have Dennis Vanendert to support him in the finale. He may not be fast enough to win the stage but if things come together for him, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Michal Kwiatkowski is here to prepare for the Ardennes classics and ride for the GC but the Pole is one of the most competitive and versatile athletes in the peloton. Whenever he has the chance to be in the mix, he usually grabs it with both hands. In a flat sprint, he would probably be asked to stay out of the carnage but tomorrow's uphill sprint should be tempting for the young Pole. Just by trying to keep out of trouble, he may suddenly find himself in a position to do the sprint and we wouldn't be surprised if he gives it a shot. In an uphill sprint he is very fast - just recall how he finished 2nd behind Peter Sagan in Arezzo at Tirreno-Adriatico - and if he gives the sprint a shot, he will be a danger man.

 

If Kwiatkowski decides to stay safe, Omega Pharma-Quick Step have another card to play. Michal Golas is usually playing the domestique role but he is actually a solid climber with a fast sprint. Tomorrow's uphill finish should suit him well and he may get a rare chance to chase a personal result.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Michael Matthew

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Paul Martens, Daniele Ratto, Tosh van der Sande

Jokers: Michal Kwiatkowski, Michal Golas