The sprinters don’t have a lot of opportunities in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and for those who didn’t make it into the lead group in stage 1, there is only one chance left. The second stage includes the traditional finale in Vitoria-Gasteiz where Orica-GreenEDGE have won three years in a row and Michael Matthews will certainly do his utmost to continue his momentum by taking another win in the Basque Country.

 

The course

There are no flat stages in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but like the recent Volta a Catalunya, the Basque race is usually a treat for the fast finishers who can overcome a few climbs. Due to the hilly profiles, all the big sprinters stay away from the race and this opens the door for some of the more versatile riders amongst the fast finishers. They will get their first chance on the second day of racing.

 

It's very rare for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco not to visit Vitoria-Gasteiz, and the major Basque city will again feature on the 2015 route. It is located on a plateau far from the coast in the western part of the region and the area is rather flat. Hence, stages finishing in Vitoria-Gasteiz often end in a bunch sprint and it would be a surprise if it should be any different in this year's edition of the race.

 

The stage brings the riders over 175.4km from yesterday's finish in Bilbao to Vitoria-Gasteiz. The start is very easy as the riders follow flat roads until they hit the first category 1 climb of the race. The Alto de Orduna (7.6km, 8.29%) is a long, regular climb that brings the riders onto the plateau and it is only followed by a pretty short descent.

 

From there, the riders continue in a southerly direction towards Vitoria-Gasteiz and even though the terrain is mostly flat, there are a few climbs to negotiate. The first one is the category 3 Alto de Salinas de Anana (2.3km, 6.52%) which comes at the 75km mark. After 113.4km of racing, it is time for the category 3 Alto de San Martin de Zar (1.4km, 5%) before the riders get to the key climb, the category 3 Alto de Zaldiaran (5.2km, 3.42%). It is a regular climb that gradually gets steeper and reaches its steepest section of 4.6% near the summit.

 

From there, the riders descend to Vitoria-Gasteiz from where they start the finishing circuit which takes them back into the terrain south of the city.  On the outskirts of the city, they turn south to do a small loop that sends them up two small climbs. First up is the category 3 Alto de Vitoria (4.8km, 3.92%) whose only steep kilometre is the fourth one with its gradient of 6.5%. The top comes 29.3km from the finish and is followed by a gradual descent to the bottom Alto de Zaldiaran (2.8km, 5.36%) which the riders do another time in the finale.

 

The top comes 9km from the finish and then it is downhill almost all the way to the line. The descent is not technical and not very steep either. It ends 1km from the finish where the road becomes completely flat. The riders go straight through a roundabout at the flamme rouge and again 500m from the line and then it is straight and flat to the finish.

 

The finish will be well-known by many riders as the Zaldiaran and downhill run to the line has featured in the finale of the last three editions of the race. In 2012 and 2013, the stage ended with a bunch sprint from a group of more than 100 riders and in both cases, Daryl Impey took the win. Last year Orica-GreenEDGE continued their domination of the stage when Michael Matthews sprinted to the win. In the 2011 Vuelta, Daniele Bennati won a bunch sprint in the city while Kim Kirchen won another bunch sprint in the 2008 Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had unusually pleasant weather for the opening stage and that is not set to change for the rest of the week. Tomorrow will be another very pleasant day in the saddle as there will be beautiful sunshine all day and the temperature will reach a maximum of a nice 17 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction and it will pick up a bit towards the end of the stage where it could be pretty windy. The riders will mainly have a cross-headwind for most of the day until they turn into a cross-tailwind before they go up the Zaldiaran for the first time. On the final circuit, there will first be a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind. In the sprint, there will be a cross-headwind.

 

The favourites

With an unusually hard course, the sprinters won’t have many opportunities in this year’s Vuelta al Pais Vasco and most of them have always expected stage 2 to be their only real opportunity. Many regarded the Alto del Vivero in the finale of today’s stage to be too hard for the fast finishers but Michael Matthews proved how much he has improved his climbing by being one of only a select few fast finishers to make it into the group that sprinted for the win.

 

The win was certainly a nice one for the Australian but there is little doubt that his biggest goal in this race is the second stage. Orica-GreenEDGE have a special relationship with this finale as they have won it the last three years and in fact the Australians are undefeated in this stage. In 2012, Daryl Impey made a late attack to deny the sprinters and in 2013 race leader Simon Gerrans decided to ride in support of the South African who won the sprint. Last year Impey was riding the Tour of Flanders and so it was left to Matthews to defend the team colours in Vitoria-Gasteiz which he did in the best possible way as he made it three in a row for the Australians.

 

There is little doubt that it is a very big goal for Orica-GreenEDGE to continue their winning streak in Vitoria-Gasteiz and they have a very strong team for this kind of stage. In fact, they have most of their A team in this race and they will be very hard to beat in a finale they know very well.

 

The stage includes several climbs but the only really hard one is very far from the finish. The final climbs all have some pretty easy gradients and history proves that most are able to survive the challenges. Of course this is not a stage for pure sprinters but there are none of them in this race and the fast finishers are all pretty good climbers.

 

Everybody knows what Orica-GreenEDGE intends to do in this stage and so there is no real reason to go on the attack. Like today we can expect an early break to get clear straight from the gun and there is no doubt that it will be a pretty small group with an Orica-GreenEDGE rider. Like today Cofidis and LottoNL-Jumbo are also likely to be there as they have no real GC goals in this race.

 

The group is likely to be firmly controlled by Orica-GreenEDGE who will probably have to do most of the work on their own as they both have the biggest favourite and the yellow jersey. Going into the race, the team were a bit worried about who was going to do the donkey work as they have a very star-studded line-up that include no less than 3 GC riders, Esteban Chaves, Simon and Adam Yates. Furthermore, Adam Yates hit the deck in the finale and is a possible non-starter. We can expect Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening and maybe Simon Gerrans to spend quite a bit of time on the front to keep the early break in check. Etixx-QuickStep may want to lend them a hand as they have Gianni Meersman for the sprint and there is no doubt that the early break will easily get caught.

 

This plateau is pretty windy and as the wind will pick up in the finale where there will be lots of cross-tailwind, it could turn out to be a bit dangerous. In the past, some teams have managed to split the peloton in this race and if the conditions are right, we may see more attempts. It is definitely not impossible that it will be possible to do some damage.

 

This will make for some nervous racing and it won’t get any less nervous when the riders hit the final climb. Everybody wants to be in a good position for the ascent and this will make for some fast racing. Furthermore, they want to be near the front at the top as it is hard to move up on the descent and this means that it will be very hard for anyone to attack.

 

The final descent is not very technical and it will be impossible for anyone to attack in the dry conditions. Hence, it is very likely that the stage will be decided in a bunch sprint and only the wind can prevent it from being a very big group that reaches the finish.

 

In that case, Michael Matthews is the obvious favourite. The Australian is usually not a rider for these flat finishes but in this field he should be the fastest rider. He has both been climbing and sprinting pretty well this year and compared to most of the fast finishers, he will be pretty fresh at the finish.

 

His biggest asset, however, is his lead-out. Riders like Gianni Meersman and Ben Swift are almost at his level when it comes to sprinting but Orica-GreenEDGE are loaded with fast guys. Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans, the Yates brothers and mainly Daryl Impey have lots of experience in these finale. They will probably be strong enough to dominate the finale and if Impey manages to deliver Matthews on the front, he will be hard to beat.

 

The team that can potentially challenge the Orica-GreenEDGE riders is Etixx-QuickStep. Today’s climb turned out to be a bit too hard for Gianni Meersman and so the Belgian sprinter only has one chance left. Tomorrow he will be going all in and he definitely has the speed to win this stage.

 

Meersman showed very good condition in Belgium in March where he even won a real bunch sprint in the Handzame Classic. He has been set back by illness but should be able to make it over the climbs with the best. In the finale, he can rely on the firepower of Tony Martin and Michal Kwiatkowski and they may be strong enough to challenge Orica-GreenEDGE. They may miss a real lead-out man but if the can position Meersman well, he can win the stage.

 

Ben Swift is the third very fast rider in this race. We expected the Brit to survive today’s climb after he had been riding so well in Coppi e Bartali but it turned out to be too much for him. Tomorrow he will be keen to make amends and on paper he has the speed to beat both Meersman and Matthews.

 

However, Swift doesn’t have a lead-out train in this race and he will probably be on his own in the finale. Usually, he is not very good at positioning himself and this will make things hard for him. Things have to really come together for him to win the stage but obviously he has the speed to do so.

 

Tosh van der Sande has made this stage a big goal. The Belgian got a great confidence boost when he won the bunch sprint for fourth in the first stage of the Volta a Catalunya and he is perfectly suited to this kind of sprint which comes after a tough day in the saddle. Today he worked to keep Tony Gallopin out of the wind but tomorrow he will be the leader. He should easily pass the climbs and with Gallopin to support him in the finale, he has a solid lead-out. He may not be as fast as Matthews, Meersman and Swift but he could create a surprise.

 

Today we were very surprised to see Kevin Reza survive the climbing in such a hard stage and this proves that the Frenchman is in very good condition. He left Europcar to get more personal chances in races like Catalunya and Pais Vasco and this race is a big goal for him. In the past, he has proved that he is pretty strong even in rather big bunch sprints. He clearly doesn’t have the speed of Matthews but he could definitely be up there.

 

Fabio Felline again proved his good condition when he survived the climb in today’s stage but he came up short in the sprint. Tomorrow’s easier stage suits him less and it will be hard for him to win the stage. Compared to Meersman and Matthews, he doesn’t have the same kind of lead-out and he is not as fast as them either. If he is in a good position, he may sprint to a spot on the podium.

 

Julien Simon won two stages in the 2012 Volta a Catalunya and since then he has been aiming for the sprints in these races. Due to illness, he has had a slow start to the year but today he showed good condition. However, he is usually not fast enough to win this kind of sprint and a spot of the podium is probably the maximum for him.

 

Finally, we will select two jokers. Valerio Agnoli is known as a climber but during the last few months, he has actually done quite a bit of sprinting. Today he again tried his hand and tomorrow he may give it another shot. Of course he doesn’t have the speed of the fastest guys but a good sprint may allow him to finish in the top 3.

 

Daryl Impey has won this stage twice but this time he is likely to be the lead-out man for Matthews. In 2013, however, the team had also won the first stage (with Simon Gerrans) but they still decided to support Impey in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Matthews is a lot faster than Impey and their only chance to keep the yellow jersey and so it is very unlikely that Impey will get his own chance. However, Orica-GreenEDGE have surprised us in the past and they may do so again.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Gianni Meersman, Ben Swift

Outsiders: Tosh van der Sande, Kevin Reza, Fabio Felline, Julien Simon

Jokers: Valerio Agnoli, Daryl Impey