Today the sprinters missed one of their few opportunities in this year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco but they will get what on paper looks as their biggest chance in tomorrow's third stage. Stages to Vitoria-Gasteiz usually end in a bunch sprint but the area is very windy and it would be a good idea for the GC riders to stay aware as they head along the flat roads on the plateau in the Basque Country.

 

The course

It's very rare for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco not to visit Vitoria-Gasteiz, and the major Basque city will again feature on the 2014 route. It is located on a plateau far from the coast in the western part of the region and the area is rather flat. Hence, stages finishing in Vitoria-Gasteiz often ends in a bunch sprint and it would be surprise if it should be any different in this year's edition of the race.

 

The stage is the longest of the race and brings the riders over 194.5km from yesterday's finish in Urdax-Urdazubi to Vitoria-Gasteiz. The start is no less that brutal as the riders head south and go straight up the category2 Alto de Otsondo (6.6km, 6.47%). It's a very regular climb whose steepest sections come from the bottom and it requires the riders to be ready right from the gun.

 

After the top, the riders go down a long gradual descent until they reach the bottom of the very long category 2 climb Alto de Belate (10km, 4.95%). It's not a very tough affair but its length makes it one of the harder challenges of the race. The top comes after 40.3km of racing and the climb will have brought the riders up on the plateau where the rest of the stage will take place.

 

Up there, the roads are long, straight and flat and so the next 120km will consist of a long, flat westerly run where the only potential challenge will be the wind. The only point of excitement comes at the 76.7km where the first intermediate sprint is located.

 

On the outskirts of Vitoria-Gasteiz, the riders turn south to do a small loop that sends them up to small climbs and makes the stage a bit more challenging. First up is the category 3 Alto de Vitoria (4.8km, 3.92%) whose only steep kilometre is the fourth one with its gradient of 6.5%. The top comes 29.5km from the finish and is followed by a gradual descent to the bottom of the category 3 Alto de Zaldiaran (2.8km, 5.36%) which is very regular but gets a bit steeper near the top.

 

The top comes 9.3km from the finish and then it is downhill almost all the way to the line. The descent is not technical and not very steep either. It ends 1km from the finish where the road becomes completely flat. The riders go straight through a roundabout at the flamme rouge and again 500m from the line and then it is straight and flat to the finish.

 

The finish will be well-known by many riders as the Zaldiaran and downhill run to the line has featured in the finale of the last two editions of the race. In both cases, the stage ended with a bunch sprint from a group of more than 100 riders and in both cases, Daryl Impey took the win. In the 2011 Vuelta, Daniele Bennati won a bunch sprint in the city while Kim Kirchen won another bunch sprint in the 2008 Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

 

 

The weather

 

The riders in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco almost can't believe their own luck as they have now managed to get through two stages without seeing just the slightest bit of rain. Things won't change for tomorrow's stage which should be a near-perfect day for a bike race.

 

It will be a partly sunny day where the temperatures are expected to reach an impressive 21 degrees. On the first stage, several riders had difficulty acclimatizing to the hot conditions and tomorrow some riders may again feel the effect of the sudden change in temperatures.

 

The Vitoria-Gasteiz plateau is  famously known for its wind and in the past the peloton has often split on stages that finishes in the biggest city in the Basque Country. That is unlikely to happen in tomorrow's stage though as there will only be a very light wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first part of the stage and then a cross-tailwind. On the final small circuit, they will first have a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind back to the finish.

 

The favourites

The sprinters missed their first chance in today's stage as they failed to obey to rule number one in the handbook for sprint teams: never let Tony Martin go up the road in a strong break. They will likely have learned from today's lesson and we can expect Orica-GreenEDGE and Sky to be more attentive in tomorrow's stage which is their most obvious chance for a sprint finish but also possibly their final opportunity.

 

Today's stage, however, proved that they won't have it their own way. Despite today's stage being billed as one of the sprinters, the early part of the stage was extremely aggressive and it was certainly not a deliberate choice to allow such a strong group to take off. It was simply a matter of some very strong riders simply riding away in the early phase.

 

Tomorrow's stage is generally much easier than today's but the start is a very tough one. Right from the beginning it goes straight up a rather tough climb and this makes it much more difficult to control and makes it more likely that a strong group will take off. Many riders will have been inspired by today's successful attack and Orica-GreenEDGE and Team Sky can expect a very tough job to keep things under control.

 

Having learnt from today's stage, we can expect Orica-GreenEDGE, Sky and maybe teams like BMC, Garmin-Sharp and Cannondale to start to chase a bit earlier than today and the long straight roads should make it easier for them to ride hard. They can't expect any help from the GC teams though but if there is just the slightest chance for a crosswind attack, we can expect teams like Movistar and Omega Pharma-Quick Step to give it a try. Even though the wind is very unlikely to produce any carnage, this could make for some very nervous racing that will make it easier for the sprint teams to bring things back together.

 

In the finale, they will have to control the attacks that are likely to be launched on the two late climbs. History proves that it is almost impossible to stay away but the sprint teams will need to keep a few riders in reserve for what will be a hectic finale. Today Philippe Gilbert and Luis Leon Sanchez both showed their intentions and it would be no surprise to see those two riders take off a bit earlier instead of gambling on a sprint in a finish that doesn't suit them too well.

 

With the flatter stage, the most likely outcome is a sprint finish as Orica-GreenEDGE and Team Sky both have some rather powerful team and if the escapee hadn't been Martin, today's stage would probably have ended in a sprint. This again makes Michael Matthews the favourite for the stage. His team has won this stage with Daryl Impey two years in a row and they have done nothing to hide that it is a major goal to keep their streak running.

 

Matthews may have finished far down in ninth in today's stage but as it was only a sprint for second, the intensity and dedication in his sprint effort was certainly not at its maximum. His win in Sunday's Vuelta a la Rioja and that he survived today's tough climbing makes it clear that he has maintained the excellent condition he put on show in Paris-Nice earlier this year.

 

Tomorrow's sprint is a flat affair, meaning that it should all come down to a question of top speed. Even though, Matthews is no pure sprinter, he is one of the two fastest riders in this race. In this kind of sprint, only Ben Swift has the speed to match Matthews and it should be a close call between the pair.

 

Matthews main asset is his strong lead-out train. Even though the team has brought their best lead-out riders, Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini and the Yates brothers should form a strong formation in a field where no team has a real sprint train. In a close battle with Swift, team support may make all the difference and there is a great chance that Matthews will make it three in a row for Orica-GreenEDGE.

 

The only other real sprinter in this race is Ben Swift. His third place in Milan-Sanremo and stage win in Coppi e Bartali clearly proves his good condition and today he again put in on show when he survived the many climbs in the finale before winning the sprint for second.

 

Matthews and Swift have many of the same characteristics as none of them are pure sprinters and both excel at the end of hard races. Tomorrow's stage with its late climbs suit Swift down to the ground and when it comes down to top speed, he is on very equal terms with his Australian rival. His main disadvantage is a team that is not made up of very fast riders and he can only expect Peter Kennaugh to make a very valuable contribution in the run-in to the line. This may prove costly but if he manages to position himself well, a win is certainly within his reach.

 

Today Garmin-Sharp decided to chase which indicates that Koldo Fernandez may want to mix it up in the sprints in this race. When he returned to competition at the Volta a Catalunya, he decided to stay away from the hectic finales but with more racing in his legs, he may decide to give it a go.

 

In the past he was the lead sprinter on Euskaltel but since joining Garmin-Sharp, he has mostly been working as a lead-out rider. His lack of recent sprinting has certainly taken away a bit of his sharpness but in this field he should be one of the fastest riders. As a Basque, he is riding on home soil and he would love to return to his winning ways in familiar surroundings.

 

Daniele Ratto was one of many sprinters to get dropped in today's stage which ended up being much harder than expected but the Italian is usually a rather solid climber. He should be able to handle tomorrow's easier climbs and will be in with a short in the finale. Like most other fast finishers in this race, he is no pure sprinter and he usually doesn't mix it up in the big bunch sprints. In last year's Vuelta a Burgos, however, he proved that in this kind of field, he has a solid chance. He may not be as fast as Swift and Matthews but he has a great team to support if. With Davide Villella, Michel Koch, Jean-Marc Marino and Damiano Caruoso, he has one of the strongest teams at his disposal and this could make the difference in a stage like tomorrow's.

 

Europcar have already fallen out of GC contention and so their sole focus is now on stage wins. With Kevin Reza on the roster, they have a rather fast finisher who can mix it up in even the big bunch sprints. Last year he took a pair of top 10 finishes in the Tour de France, including one on the Champs-Elysees. This proves that he has the right turn of speed to be up there and he is currently riding really well. In Catalonia, he climbed impressively strong and even though he seems to not be going so well in this race, he should be able to handle tomorrow's climbing. It will be hard to win the stage but a podium spot should be within reach.

 

Lotto Belisol have again lined up Tosh van der Sande as their sprinter in this race and the young Belgian is one of several riders who were also active in the Volta a Catalunya. In that race, he did well by taking a number of top 10 results and even won the bunch sprint behind the breakaway on the penultimate stage. Like the other fast finishers, van der Sande is no real sprinter and he likes the lumpy terrain in the Basque Country. He will have Dennis Vanendert to support him in the finale. He may not be fast enough to win the stage but if things come together for him, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Yesterday Michal Kwiatkowski was one of our choices and he proved us right by taking third in the sprint. The young Pole is certainly one of the fastest riders in this race and will have a great shot at the win if he gives it a try. His main focus, however, is the GC and tomorrow he can expect a bigger bunch to arrive at the finish. This may prompt him to stay in the background to stay safe but if he goes for the win, he will be a danger man.

 

Luis-Leon Sanchez has made the Volta a Catalunya and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco his first big targets but so far he has performed far below expectations. Today he showed signs of life when he made it up the final climb as one of the best riders and even seemed to be contemplating a small attack. In the end he stayed in the background but tomorrow's stage could offer him another option. As a king of breakaways, he has several opportunities as he could both attack from the gun or try a move on one of the final climbs. Finally, he is also a decent sprinter who may decide to give it a short in case of a bunch sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Koldo Fernandez

Outsiders: Daniele Ratto, Kevin Reza, Tosh van der Sande

Jokers: Michal Kwiatkowski, Luis-Leon Sanchez