After two days for the sprinters, it is time for the GC riders to come to the fore in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. The climbers have three chances to make a difference before the final time trial and they will get their first opportunity to gain some seconds in tomorrow’s third stage which offer a brutally steep wall just 3km from the finish.

 

The course

In the first two stages, the GC riders have bided their time but on the third day, it is time for them to show their cards. The third stage is a typical Basque affair that has no long climbs but includes several short, steep ascents with little room for recovery. In the finale, the riders will tackle a typical short, steep ramp before they descend to the finish and this should set the scene for the first GC battle.

 

The 170.4km stage starts in Vitoria-Gasteiz and finishes in Zumarraga. The first part takes place on the plateau around the starting city and has plenty of flat roads and pretty easy climbs like the ones that characterized the first part of the stage. The first one is the category 2 Alto de Azazeta (3km, 5.57%) which comes at the 16km mark. Its descent leads directly to the bottom of the category 1 Alto de Iturrieta (12km, 2.58%) whose length is a bit deceptive. The first four kilometres have a gradient of 5-6% but from there it is almost flat with a few descents coming along the way.

 

The final climb on the plateau is the category 1 Alto de Urbasa (5.3km, 4.62%) which comes at the 62.3km mark. After that challenge, the riders follow a long gradual descent down from the plateau to get to the hilly terrain around Zumarraga. This is where the decisive challenges are all located.

 

First the riders go up the category 2 Alto de Urkillaga (2.7km, 7.22%) whose summit comes with 63km to go. It is followed by the final flat section that leads to the very difficult finale where the riders will tackle four climbs in quick succession. First up is the category 3 Alto de Gabiria (4.8km) which is very irregular and steepest near the top where it averages 7.1%. Then the riders descend to the key climb of the Alto de la Antigua (2.5km, 9.6%) which is a brutal wall. After an opening kilometre of 8%, it just gets steeper and steeper and the final 500m average a massive 16%. The top comes with 30.8km to go.

 

After the Antigua, the riders descend to the finish in Zumarraga where the start a lap of a finishing circuit that includes two climbs. First the riders tackle the easy category 3 Alto de Atagoiti (2.5km, 3.40%) whose summit comes 18km from the finish. It is followed by an easier section that is mainly downhill before the riders again hit the Alto de Antigua. The summit comes just 3km from the finish and they are almost all down a very technical descent. The real descent ends at the flamme rouge just after the final hairpin turn and then the riders continue along slightly descending roads until they do a U-turn with 350m to go where they hit the finishing straight which ascends at a gradient of 1%.

 

The finale of this stage is a well-known one as it was last used in 2011. On the brutally steep climb, Joaquim Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, Andreas Klöden and Chris Horner escaped and it was the former who won the sprint ahead of his compatriot and the German. 6 riders arrived 6 seconds later and were followed by several smaller groups.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders may be pinching themselves to see if they are dreaming. Until now, there has been no rain in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and tomorrow should be another great day for a bike race. A bit of rain is forecasted later in the week but for the moment, it is almost summer in the Basque Country.

 

Wednesday will be a day with beautiful sunshine and the temperature will reach a maximum of 17 degrees. Like today it there will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a headwind which gradually turns into a cross-headwind. After the descent from the plateau, they turn into a cross-tailwind and then it will be a tailwind in the final section to the finishing circuit. Here they will first have a cross-headwind before they again turn into a tailwind for the final part of the stage. There will be a tailwind on the descent and for the sprint.

 

The favourites

The 2015 Vuelta al Pais Vasco is unusually hard and the sprinters had to make the most of their opportunities in the first two stages. From now on, it will be all about the GC battle and riders like Michael Matthews, Ben Swift and Gianni Meersman are unlikely to get more time in the spotlight.

 

As usual, the final time trial is very important in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and even though it is a hilly affair, the climbers want to have an advantage before they get to the final day. They have three opportunities to make a difference. Bigger time gaps will be made in stages 4 and 5 but the riders have a chance to gain a few second already in stage 3.

 

The 2011 edition of this finale proves that it is definitely not a stage for the sprinters. Instead, it is a day for the really punchy climbers who excel on the steepest of gradients and who can make a difference on the Antigua. The final descent is a tricky one and descending skills are also important. Looking at the profile, one may think that it could be a stage for the fast riders but the Antigua is a beast that no one should underestimate.

 

Michael Matthews is a great climber and has been climbing better than ever but this ascent is definitely too steep for him. Hence, Orica-GreenEDGE are unlikely to do anything to defend the jersey as they switch their attention to the GC battle. Already in today’s stage, they were reluctant to do any chasing so tomorrow they will probably not hit the front at all.

 

The hilly terrain is very hard to control and history proves that strong breakaways have a chance in this kind of stages. Stage 3 has no obvious favourite and this makes it pretty uncertain who is going to lead the chase. Several riders will be keen to exploit that uncertainty and we would expect a fast start to the stage with lots of attacks. It will probably take some time before the break is formed.

 

There are no bonus seconds in this race and so the GC riders have no need to bring the early break back. Time gaps were opened up in stage 1 and if the break contains no dangerous riders, it may actually stay away. This could be a day for a breakaway but it all depends on the composition.

 

If there is a dangerous rider in the break, however, they will have little chance. Movistar have shown that they take no risks in this race and it will probably be left to them to keep the break under control and bring it back if they feel that their GC is under threat. However, Nairo Quintana is not the favourite to win this stage and if the break is non-dangerous, other teams will have to come to the fore.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is a past winner of this stage and he may be eager to repeat that performance. Michal Kwiatkowski is also suited to this finale and so we may see Katusha and Etixx-QuickStep do some chase work. This means that it is most likely to be back together by the time, the riders hit the Antigua for the final time.

 

It will be interesting to see if some teams want to make the race hard in the finale and it would be no surprise if Movistar up the pace on some of the later climbs. The first big selection will be made the first time up the Antigua where all the GC riders want to be in a good position. Due to the long distance to the finish, however, they will save their energy for the final passage.

 

Alto la Antugua is very short and the road is very narrow which means that positioning will be of utmost importance. Hence, we can expect an extremely fast pace in the run-in to the climb before the climbers battle it out on the final ascent. The climb is very steep and is suited to the punchy riders who excel on the steepest ascents. After the top, there is very little room for a regrouping but on the technical descent, a good descender could make up some time.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is one of the best riders for the Ardennes classics and he can even handle very steep climbs. Last year he finished on the podium in Fleche Wallonne and he has no reason to fear this kind of wall. He is still suffering a bit on the longer climbs but this terrain suits him down to the ground.

 

Furthermore, it seems that the talented Pole has upped his level a bit. In Paris-Nice, he climbed very well and he seems to be in very good condition at the moment as his big goal in the Ardennes is rapidly approaching. With his punchy climbing skills, he will be hard to drop on this ascent and he is an excellent descender too. Among the GC riders, he is clearly the fastest sprinter. Like in 2011, we expect a handful of riders to reach the finish together and here Kwiatkowski will be the obvious favourite. The world champion is our stage winner pick.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez won this stage in 2011 and he will be keen to repeat that performance. The Spaniard was not scheduled to ride this race but after illness forced him out of the Volta a Catalunya he will use this race to gear up for the Ardennes. He claims to be feeling good but doesn’t know how well he has recovered from his health issues.

 

However, he looked very strong on the final climb in stage 1 and he seems to be at a very high level. If he is at 100%, Rodriguez is the best rider in the world for this kind of wall and if he goes full gas, it will be hard for anyone to keep up with him. He is a great descender and could potentially take a solo win. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and if Kwiatkowski is not there, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Nairo Quintana is not perfectly suited to this kind of short, steep climbs. However, the Colombian is the best climber in this race and he seems to be extremely confident at the moment. This indicates that he is in great condition and he needs to make the most of every opportunity.

 

We won’t be surprised if Quintana makes a big attack on the Alto La Antigua and he may be strong enough to distance the rest. To win the stage he needs to arrive solo at the finish but due to his good descending skills he should be able to maintain an advantage in the final part of the stage. Being the best climber in the race, Quintana may make his mark already on stage 3.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is the Katusha leader but the team also has another card to play. Daniel Moreno is also very strong on this kind of walls as he has proved with stage wins in the Vuelta and a Fleche Wallonne victory. Furthermore, he is faster than Rodriguez in a flat sprint and if anyone has a chance to beat Kwiatkowski from a small group, he is probably the one. However, he has rarely been very strong in this race where he has been suffering from allergy and it remains to be seen if he can buck the trend.

 

Former world champion Rui Costa rode very poorly in this race last year. In 2015, however, he seems to be very strong. He seemed to be at easy on the final climb in yesterday’s stage and he is well-suited to this kind of terrain. The final climb may be a bit too steep to suit him perfectly but he seems to be strong enough to match the best. With his fast sprint, he has a good chance to win this stage.

 

Sergio Henao has had an amazing comeback from his broken kneecap. Already in the Coppi e Bartali he was at a very high level and in stage 1 he seemed to be one of the best climbers. It still remains to be seen if he can challenge the best when the racing gets very tough and this stage may come a bit too early for him. However, he is a former winner of a “wall” stage in this race and has finished on the podium in Fleche Wallonne. He is very strong in this terrain and has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Bauke Mollema is mostly known for his GC results but he also excels in the Ardennes. He is a perennial top 10 finisher in the hilly one-day races and this proves that he is suited to this kind of terrain. The Dutchman seems to be riding at a higher level in 2015 and he could turn out to be one of the strongest climbers in this race. He is one of the fastest GC riders in a sprint and this makes him a contender.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Samuel Sanchez finished second in this stage in 2011 but he is no longer at the same level. However, this race is his first big goal of the season and in 2014 he proved that he can still match the best. He will probably not be strong enough to distance the rest but if he can follow the elite on the final climb, he has the skills to win the stage. He is an excellent descender, has a fast sprint and can rely on his vast experience.

 

Julian Arredondo is perfectly suited to this stage as his punchy climbing skills make him a contender on this kind of wall. The Colombian is not at his best level but due to a mechanical he lost some time. This means that he will be less marked and may even join the early break. He is unlikely to win the stage from a GC battle but with a brave move he will be hard to catch.

 

Mikel Nieve lost a bit of time in stage 1 and has been left hugely frustrated as he was aiming at the GC. However, he will be keen to bounce back with a stage win in his home race. This punchy stage doesn’t really suit him but this year he has been climbing at an excellent level. He won’t win a battle with the GC riders but don’t be surprised if he attacks from afar.

 

Mikel Landa has had a slow start to the year as he has been set back by injury. However, he is building condition for the Giro and is usually very strong in his home race. He climbed really well on stage 1 and will be one of several Astana cards to play in this stage. Michele Scarponi looks like the strongest Astana rider but Landa may be less watched. In last year’s Giro del Trentino, he proved that he can be very hard to catch.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michal Kwiatkowski

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Nairo Quintana

Outsiders: Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Sergio Henao, Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Samuel Sanchez, Julian Arredondo (breakaway), Mikel Nieve (breakaway), Mikel Landa