After two easier days it is back to business for the GC riders in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco when they tackle tomorrow's traditional queen stage up the Arrate climb in Eibar. The stage offers the climbers one last opportunity to take time ahead of Saturday's final time trial and we can expect another fabulous showdown between Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador

 

The  course

The fourth day is the day of the race's traditional queen stage. For many years, the finish with the Alto de Arrate and the short downhill run to the line featured in the queen stage of the Euskal Bizikleta but when that race disappeared, the organizers agreed with the Vuelta al Pais Vasco organizers to incorporate that stage into the biggest Basque race. Since then it has always featured as the end of the race's queen stage and in 2014 it will be no different.

 

While the finale is unchanged from year to year, the early part of the stage varies a bit. This year the stage has a length of just 151km and starts in Vitoria-Gasteiz. As that city is located on the flat plateau that dominated the racing on the previous day, the first part is completely flat as the riders travel in a predominantly northeasterly direction. After 27.3km, they go down the long gradual descent that ends in Bergera where the day's climbing begins.

 

First up is the category 2 Alto de Asentzio (6.3km, 6.19%) which has a rather steep second half. The top comes at the 59km mark is followed by a steep descent and then a few flat kilometres where the first intermediate sprint comes in the finishing city of Eibar. From here, the riders turn around to do the first of two loops around the city. It kicks off in brutal fashion with the category 2 Alto de Karabieta (6.5km, 7.31%) which has a steep middle section of 3km where the gradient doesn't drop below 8%.

 

After the descent, the riders travel along slightly rolling roads back to Eibar where they start the second loop around the city. It kicks off with the hardest climb of the day, the category 1 Alto de Ixua (4.1km, 10.12%). It's a very tough one but its top comes 34.7km from the finish and so it is still too early for the favourites to make a move. It's descent lead almost directly to the bottom of the category 2 Alto de Aiastia (4.8km, 5.63%) whose final 800m are the steepest at 8.75% but which is not too tough. The second intermediate sprint comes at its bottom.

 

From the top 20.5km remain and they start with a fast descent that lead to a short stretch of gradually ascending valley roads that lead back to Eibar. Now it is time to head up the famous category 1 Alto de Arrate (7.3km, 6.71%) which is located on the northern outskirts of the city. It's a very regular affair as the first 6km have a gradient of 7.5% but then the road flattens out with a gradient of just around 3% for the final 1.3km.

 

From the top only 1.7km remain and the riders will all know the final section well as it features at the race every year. The final section is a fast technical downhill where there is no time for regrouping and the time differences are usually maintained all the way to the finish. It's a technical affair that has several turns inside the final kilometre. The final right-hand one comes just 100m from the line and history proves that the winner is the one who enters it in first position.

 

The stage debuted in the race in 2009 when Alberto Contador rode to a solo win 8 seconds ahead of Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez but since then it has been Sanchez' domain. The local hero won it thrice in a row from 2010 to 2012, arriving at the finish as part of a trio twice and with an 11-rider group once. The technical descent has suited him perfectly and he has always known how to time his sprint ahead of the final corner to come away in the win. Last year he was finally beaten when he failed to make it into the 7-rider lead group and this time it was Nairo Quintana who excelled on the descent to win ahead of Sergio Henao and Alberto Contador. The finish also featured in the 2012 Vuelta when Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Alberto Contador and Chris Froome arrived at the finish, with Rodriguez doubtlessly regretting that he didn't sprint all the way to the line as he was passed by Valverde just before the finish.

 

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country may be known for its rainy conditions but for some reason it always seems to stay dry when the riders tackle the traditional queen stage to the Arrate climb. In this year's unusually hot edition of the race, it is only fitting that it will be another summerlike day in the Basque Country for the queen stage.

 

The stage will take place under bright sunshine and it will be another very hot day. In fact, the temperatures will reach no less than 23 degrees, making it just as hot as it was on the opening day. In the first stage, several riders said that they had had difficulty acclimatizing to the warm weather as many of them had arrive directly from high-altitude training camps in showy conditions. Again the heat may take its toll when they again face the combination of warm weather and hard climbs.

 

There will be almost no wind. At the start, it will be a very light breeze from a southerly direction but as the day goes on, the wind will completely disappear before picking up a bit from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the long first part of the stage while they will have all kind of wind directions on the final circuits around Eibar. Importantly, there will be a headwind on the final climb before the riders turn into a crosswind for the final downhill to the finish.

 

The favourites

There will be no surprises in tomorrow's stage as most riders have done the Vuelta al Pais Vasco in the past. As the Arrate stage has been the queen ride of the race since 2008, all those riders will be intimately familiar with the final climb and - more importantly - with the final tricky descent to the finish and the important turn just before the line.

 

Hence, almost everybody knows what to expect from tomorrow's exciting drama which offers the climbers the final opportunity to take time ahead of the time trial. With no bonus seconds on offer, the GC riders don't need to bring it back together for the final climb but a number of factors suggest that they will both be fighting for the stage win and crucial time by the time they go up the Arrate climb.

 

First of all, the stage to Arrate is a highly prestigious one that everybody would love to win. Alberto Contador has won it twice in the past and he would love to make it three in a row. Even more importantly, Alejandro Valverde missed out on the win on the opening day and if he wants to win a stage in this race, it most likely has to come tomorrow. He won the stage in the 2012 Vuelta and so has a special affiliation with the climb which makes it even more important for him to win it again.

 

Secondly, the key GC riders Contador and Valverde both want the race to be as hard as possible. The Arrate climb is certainly a tough affair but on its own it is not very difficult. To open up bigger time gaps, they need to make the race hard and we can expect both Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo to set a hard pace on the early climbs, especially the very tough Alto de Ixua. This will make things even harder for the early breakaway.

 

Finally, the first part of the stage is very easy and so it will be no tough affair for the main teams to make sure that the early break is not too strong and numerous. We may be in for an aggressive start to the stage but we should see no repeat of Tuesday's scenario where a very strong break took off.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar will ride tempo up the climbs and we can expect the peloton to be severely whittled down on the Alto de Ixua. In fact, it would be no surprise if less than half of the peloton remains in contention by the time we reach the bottom of the Arrate climb. It would be no surprise to see a few attacks on some of the later climbs - most notably Amets Txurruka is likely to give it a go - but by the time we reach the bottom of the final ascent, things should be back together.

 

Hence, it should all come down to a final showdown between the race favourites on the Alto de Arrate and again it should be a closely fought battle between Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde. After his excellent performance on the Alto de Gaintza on the opening day, it is hard not to make Contador the favourite tomorrow. Last Monday, he was clearly the best climber in the race and tomorrow's longer climb suits him much better.

 

While Valverde is a very explosive rider, Contador is more of a pure climber and this should make him more of a favourite in tomorrow's stage as he generally excels on longer ascents. Of course Valverde is a better descender but the final descent is so short that any time gaps are usually maintained all the way to the finish. Valverde is a faster finisher and so Contador will have to get rid of Valverde on the climb and he needs to do so a few kilometres from the top as the final section is not difficult enough to make the difference. At the moment, however, Contador seems to be in a league of his own and so we expect him to be able to again take a solo win.

 

However, it could be a much closer affair than it was last Monday. A number of factors suggest that Valverde will have a better chance than he had on the opening day. The length of the climbs is certainly an advantage for Contador but the less steep gradients should play into the hands of Valverde. At the same time, the headwind will make it harder for Contador to make a difference. Finally, Valverde clearly thought that he was unbeatable on stage one and was so confident in his own chances that he simply rode on the front without even looking back at Contador. Tomorrow he knows that Contador may be able to drop him and so he will probably use a wiser strategy.

 

Valverde has the advantage of his fast sprint and excellent descending skills which means that he can allow himself to ride the climb conservatively and wait for Contador's attack. There is certainly no guarantee that Contador will be able to drop Valverde and if so, the Movistar leader will be the clear favourite.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski has returned to form after his disappointing showing in Tirreno-Adriatico and at the moment he seems to be number three in the climbing hierarchy. On stage one, he rode with great maturity when he didn't try to follow the two Spaniards and instead rode at his own pace to avoid cracking completely and so limited his losses.

 

Tomorrow's longer climb suits him less as he still has a few problems matching the very best in the real mountains. However, the Alto de Arrate is no really long climb and the length should not be too hard for Kwiatkowski to handle. The easier gradient compared to Monday's stage should be an advantage and Contador and Valverde may have a harder time dropping their rivals in tomorrow' stage. If they fail to do so, he will be danger man in the finale. He is both an excellent descender and a very fast finisher and he certainly has a chance to beat Valverde in a sprint finish.

 

In the past, Cadel Evans was the king of consistency but it seems that things have changed completely with age. In fact, the Australian has been everything but consistent in the early part of the season, riding really well at the Tour Down Under and Strade Bianche before performing terribly at Tirreno-Adriatico. In this race, however, he has returned to form and on stage one he seemed to be the strongest rider behind Contador, Valverde and Kwiatkowski.

 

It is hard to imagine that Evans will be able to drop Contador and Valverde but he may win the stage in the same way his teammate Tejay van Garderen won the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya. If Contador and Valverde are unable to drop each other, a tactical battle between the two race favourites may break out. If Evans rejoins the pair while the duo look at each other, the wily Australian may sneak away in the finale. He is an excellent descender and even has a solid sprint if he should have a few riders for company in the finale. This could allow him to take his second WorldTour win of the season.

 

After several disappointing seasons, Damiano Cunego has enjoyed a sudden return to form in this year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco. He already gave solid indications at Strade Bianche but his below-par showing at Tirreno again put a dampener to all hopes that the Lampre rider could return to his best level. Nonetheless, he has been riding splendidly in this race and has already taken two top 10 finishes.

 

Like Evans, Cunego is probably unable to match Contador and Valverde but he may be another one to exploit any kind of tactical standstill. He is both a very fast finisher and an excellent descender which are key attributes in the difficult finale. If things really come together for Cunego, he could return to his winning ways at the highest level.

 

Apart from a disappointing showing in Catalonia, Mikel Nieve has been riding excellently well all season and in this race he gets a rare chance to lead Team Sky - even on home soil. The Basque rider excelled on a short, steep climb that didn't suit him at all and this marks him out as a danger man on tomorrow's longer ascent. In the past, Nieve has proved that he is not afraid of attacking and this could be the right strategy in tomorrow's stage.

 

If Contador and Valverde are unable to drop each other, Nieve could benefit from a tactical war by anticipating their move and with his current condition, he will be very hard to catch back. He is no great descender and has no fast finish but we wouldn't be surprised to see him emerge as one of the very strongest climbers in the race.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Roman Kreuziger was really strong in Tirreno and he seems to still be performing really well. He blew up a bit on stage one but that climb didn't suit him really well. In Tirreno, his team used the tactics of sending him up the road on the final climb of the queen stage to put their rivals under pressure and it would be no surprise to see the team try a similar move tomorrow. If the Czech is as strong as he was in Italy, he may then be very hard to catch.

 

Robert Gesink did well in stage one on a stage that didn't suit him and he even had to chase back from two bike changes. Tomorrow's longer climb suits him much better and he seems to be in great condition as he has been all season. Like everybody else he is unlikely to match Contador and Valverde but he has never been afraid of attacking. We wouldn't be surprised to see him go on the offensive. If he does, he may be the one to benefit from any kind of tactical battle.

 

CyclingQuotes's stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Michal Kwiatkowski

Outsiders: Cadel Evans, Damiano Cunego, Mikel Nieve

Jokers: Roman Krezuiger, Robert Gesink