The fierce headwind made it impossible to make much of a difference in today's queen stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and so the top of the GC remained virtually unchanged. There's one final chance to turn things around ahead of the final time trial but even though tomorrow's penultimate stage has a lumpy profile, it may not be hard enough to separate the biggest contenders.

 

The course

The last few years the final road stage has been one for the GC riders but that is unlikely to be the case for this year's edition. The 160.2km stage from Eibar to Markina-Xemein is a hilly affair but probably not hard enough to separate the GC contenders.

 

The start and finishing cities are almost neighbouring cities and from the start, the riders head right from the start to the finish along slightly rolling roads. Here they take on a big rectangular loop that features the  category 2 Alto de Muniketagane (3.4km, 7.21%) in the beginning. The loop brings the riders back to the coast and back up to the finishing city. The terrain is only slightly rolling and the only danger will be the possibility of wind.

 

The riders are back at the finish after 97km of racing where they contest the first intermediate sprint. Interestingly, they will now to the course for the final day's time trial that will send them up two climbs. The riders go straight up the category 3 Alto de Gontzagaigana (3.2km, 6.09%) whose descent leads straight to the category 3 Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.1km, 6.75%), with the second intermediate sprint coming at the bottom. The descent is followed by a short flat stretch and then they are back in the finishing city after having previewed the final stage.

 

The stage ends with a hilly loop in the area around Eibar that will bring them up many of the same climbs they did in the previous stage. It starts off with the final intermediate sprint and then the hardest challenge of the day, the category 1 Alto de Ixua (6.6km, 6.59%). The riders already went up that climb in the finale of the previous stage but on that occasion it was from its harder, much steeper side. From the top 25.5km remain.

 

The descent brings them back to the starting city of Eibar from where they go up the category 2 Alto de Aiastia (5km, 5.5%) that already featured in the previous stage but again the riders go up from another side. The penultimate kilometre is rather steep as it has an average gradient of 9.5% and this should be a testing affair for most of the riders.

 

From the top 8.2km remain and they are mostly downhill. The descent ends just one kilometre from the finish and from there it is flat all the way to the line. There are two slight right-hand bends in the finale but the finish should not be too technical.

 

 

 

The weather

At the moment, it seems that the 2014 edition of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco will be one of the very rare ones in which the riders will get through the entire race without doing just a single stage in rainy conditions. After today's summerlike conditions, a bit of rain will fall overnight but by the time tomorrow's stage starts, the sun should be back for a partly cloudy day.

 

It will be significantly cooler than today though as the temperatures will only reach a maximum of 16 degrees. Today the headwind played a big role and tomorrow it will even be a bit windier. There will be a light to moderate wind from a northerly direction and the riders will have all kind of wind direction as they zigzag their way around the tricky course. Importantly, there will again be a headwind on the final climb and on the descent down to the finish in Markina-Xemein.

 

The favourites

Tomorrow's stage is a very open affair that has a lot of potential outcomes. For the GC riders, it is the final chance to take some time ahead of the final time trial but as the final climbs are not very tough, it will be hard to make a difference. The lumpy terrain means that many attackers will have marked it out as an obvious stage win opportunity and as some GC riders may be keen to save energy for the time trial, there is a great chance that a breakaway might stay away. Finally, no one can completely rule out that some of the faster finishers may be able to survive the climbs and could take a sprint win in Markina-Xemein.

 

There is no doubt that we will be in for a very fast and animated start to the stage. So far all stages started off very aggressively and tomorrow's stage offers the best chance for a successful breakaway as it is not an obvious chance for the GC riders or the sprinters. The first part of the stage may only have one categorized climb but the terrain is the same kind of lumpy affair that made Tuesday's stage a very tough one. There is a great chance that a very strong group takes off from the beginning and if that happens, the peloton may never see them again.

 

On the other hand, the stage may also be an option for Alejandro Valverde. After today's stage, he admitted that he chose to hold something back in today's stage for two reasons. First of all, he feared that Alberto Contador may launch a counterattack and he didn't want to repeat his mistakes from the opening stage. Secondly, he wanted to save energy for the final two days of the race and he hinted that he saw tomorrow's stage as a chance to go for the win.

 

It is certainly true that the stage suits him well and we could see Movistar take responsibility for the chase. Today they rode very aggressively and they are likely to try to send a rider up the road but if they fail in that mission, they may put all their cards in the Valverde basket.

 

At the same time, the tables in breakaway stages are often turned around if a few teams miss the key break. For most teams, tomorrow's stage is their final chance as they don't have a genuine contender for the time trial, and this means that they may chase down the early move if they miss out. This could open the door for the GC contenders to get back into play even if they don't try to chase down the move themselves.

 

Whether there's a breakaway up the road or not, we should see some of the GC riders test each other on the final climb. The hardest ascent is certainly the penultimate one but due to the long flat section between the final two challenges, the key riders will save their energy for the Alto de Aiastia. It may now be very difficult but near the top it has a kilometre with an average gradient of 9.5%. It would be a bit of a surprise if Valverde or Contador don't give it a try in this section but today's stage showed that they are pretty equally matched on this kind of gradients. Things will probably slow down again as they are unlikely to drop each other and as there is always a headwind down to the finish, a rather big group of favourites are likely to finish together.

 

It is almost 50-50 whether this stage is one for a breakaway or a group sprint but with Valverde having indicated his intentions to go for the win, we put our money on the latter scenario. In that case, our stage winner pick is Michal Kwiatkowski. Today's stage again revealed his two major weaknesses: long climbs and recovery at the end of stage races. However, tomorrow's final climbs are much easier and the final ascent should not be enough to put him into difficulty - especially if there's a headwind.

 

We expect a rather big group of favourites to arrive at the finish together and in that group, Kwiatkowski is likely to be the fastest. He proved his fantastic speed when he went head to head with the big sprinters in stages 2 and 3, even beating Ben Swift in the latter one. In last year's Tour de France, he almost beat Peter Sagan in a similar sprint on the second stage and this proves that he has an amazing turn of speed. He can expect to have his teammate Wout Poels at his side in the finish and the strong Dutchman may help to keep things together in the run-in to the line. Then it will be left to Kwiatkowski to use his sprint to make it three Omega Pharma-Quick Step stage wins in the race.

 

The other really fast rider among the race favourites is of course Valverde. As said, the Movistar leader has red-circled the stage as an opportunity for him and it certainly suits his characteristics well. He won't get into difficulty on the final climb, he is an excellent descender and he should be one of the fastest riders in the group that may sprint it out at the finish. In a flat sprint, he may not be quite as fast as Kwiatkowski but the difference is certainly not big and it should be a closely fought contest between the duo.

 

If a breakaway stays away, there are a number of solid stage winner options. Bauke Mollema arrived in the Basque Country with the intention of riding for GC but it all came to nothing when he had a bad day on the opening day. Today he bounced back with an excellent performance as he was clearly one of the strongest on the final climb.

 

Mollema is far down on GC and so will be of little concern for the GC riders if he joins the early break. As he seems to be riding well at the moment, he will be hard to beat if he joins the break. At the moment, he is obviously one of the strongest climbers in the race and so should excel on the final climb. He even has a very fast sprint that will be a big advantage if more riders arrive at the finish together. His fast finish may even make him a stage winner candidate if a group of favourites will sprint it out in the end.

 

Michael Albasini has won stages in this race in the past and he is excellent when it comes to picking the right breakaway. He is here to prepare for the Ardennes classics but the team has done nothing to hide that they would like him to pick up a stage win as well. He seems to be riding really well and tomorrow's stage suits him down to the ground. He is a great climber and has an excellent sprint that will make him very hard to beat if he makes it into the break. Like Mollema, he may even be a winner candidate if the stage is decided in a group sprint.

 

World champion Rui Costa is another rider who had hoped to ride for GC but whose ambitions were crushed due to a bad first stage. He has made it clear that he now targets a stage win and today he made his first attempt to attack.

 

He ended up finishing in a big group more than 18 minutes behind the stage winner which indicates that he has saved energy for tomorrow. In Tuesday's stage, he seemed to be riding rather well and he claims to be in good condition for the Ardennes classics. With its late climbs and downhill finish, the stage suits him well as he is obviously a great climber, a good descender and has a fast sprint.

 

Belkin's fast man Paul Martens is an Ardennes specialist and tomorrow's climbs should not be too hard for him. He may not be able to follow the GC favourites but as they are unlikely to drop each other, a regrouping may take place. Martens won't be too far behind the best riders and this could bring him back in contention. By finishing 5th in the two sprint stages, he has proved his speed and if he is there at the end, he will have a great shot at the win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Michael Matthews may be known as a sprinter but in fact he is so much more than that. In Paris-Nice, he was one of the strongest on the climbs and tomorrow's late ascents are very similar to those found in the French race. Today he finished in the gruppetto, probably saving energy for tomorrow as he will surely try to keep up with the best. It may be hard for him to stay with the favourites but if a little regrouping takes place, he could find himself in the group sprinting for the win.

 

Ben Swift is a rider very similar to Matthews. He climbs very well and is obviously a fast finisher. In the Challenge Mallorca, he has often survived some pretty tough climbing and he showed great condition when he won a rather tough stage of the Coppi e Bartali and finished 3rd in Milan-Sanremo. Like Matthews, he won't follow Contador's or Valverde's attacks but if he is not far behind, the doors could open for him to sprint for the win.

 

Warren Barguil proved that he is a great escape artist when he won two stages of last year's Vuelta. He finished in the top 10 in the Volta a Catalunya and so is obviously in great condition but here he has fallen out of GC contention. He will now target a stage win and tomorrow's stage suits him well. He is a great climber and has a fast sprint to finish it off from a breakaway

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Michal Kwiatkowski

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema

Outsiders: Michael Albasini, Rui Costa, Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Paul Martens, Ben Swift, Michael Matthews, Warren Barguil