Cycling may have its five historic monuments but no one-day race carries more prestige than the world championships road race. No other international cycling race earns you the right to wear a distinctive jersey throughout an entire season than the yearly contest for the honour of being the world's best and it's the only race that attracts equal interest from classics riders, stage race specialists, sprinters and climbers. For one day, cycling returns to its past when riders no longer represent their trade teams but form unusual and often difficult alliances with their compatriots to represent their home country.  The world championships road race is a truly unique event!

Most sports organize a world championships to determine their strongest athlete and in most cases, the event is the pinnacle of the sport. While the latter may not be entirely true in the case of cycling whose races are all overshadowed by the Tour de France when it comes to publicity and recognition, the world championships road race plays a unique role on the cycling calendar.

While the first track world championships were held back in 1893 - when the UCI wasn't even founded - the first honour of being the world's best road racer was awarded in 1927 when Alfredo Binda was the best in an Italian 1-2-3 on Nürburgring. At a time where many of the current cycling races already had established themselves and had a long history, the event immediately gained huge prestige as it is reflected by what is simply a formidable winners list.

With the event awarding the honour of being the best in the world, it's no surprise that the event has been dominated by the two strongest countries in the history of cycling. Belgium tops the list with its 26 titles followed by Italy with 19 while France is a distant 3rd with its 8 wins. Due to the varying nature high level of tactics of road racing, it is no mean feat to be a repeat winner of the title and only four very distinguished cyclists have accomplished the feat of triumphing three times: Alfredo Binda, Rik Van Steenbergen, Eddy Merckx and the more recent Oscar Freire.

One element of its prestige is of course the universal honour of being the world champion. What makes it even more special is the symbol of that status: the rainbow jersey. Cycling is famously known for its distinctive jerseys but they are usually only used in specific events. Only one international race may earn you the right to wear a jersey throughout an entire year and that makes the win that more coveted. At every race, the world is reminded of the win and the status and while it may not always be a tactical advantage to stand out in the peloton, the importance when it comes to publicity cannot be underestimated.

Another aspect turns the world championships into a unique event. While most one-day races have a more or less fixed route with little room for variation, the Worlds are of a different nature. Held on different courses from year to year, the aim is to provide different types of riders with the opportunity to become world champions at some point during their career. The world championships road race has no fixed format: one year it may be a paradise for the sprinters while the next may be one for the climbers.

In that sense, it is different from many other sports in which the venue has little influence on the outcome. Road cycling is one of the most versatile sports and that makes it much harder to talk about the sport's best athlete. While the rainbow jersey is never worn by the strongest rider in every kind of road cycling, most of the best riders in a generation usually get the opportunity to wear it at some point in his career. No one can expect to be a contender every year: just recall how reigning champion Mark Cavendish played a loyal domestique role on last year's hilly course on Limburg. As it is always the case in road racing, luck plays a certain role but there is not too much randomness involved when it comes to the world championships. It is certainly no coincidence that most most of strongest riders in the cycling history have worn the rainbow jersey at some point in their career.

In modern day sports, money plays a crucial role and cycling is no exception. Usually, the riders represent their trade teams but for one day they return to the past when they represent their country at the world championships. While it takes the role of national pride to a whole new level, it creates difficulties for the national coaches who suddenly have to unite common rivals in fighting for a common goal. The history is loaded with examples where those missions have failed and where national teams have been divided into different camps that reflect their trade teams and personal relationships. In modern day cycling, former Italian national coach Franco Ballerini was famously known for his ability to unite what had usually been a very disharmonious Italian team.

Like most other sports, cycling is usually a rather hierarchical with the best teams usually competing against each other but at the world championships, the smaller nations get their chance to get some time in the spotlight. Lesser-known riders that are usually far from the glory of the WorldTour events get the chance to race against the world's biggest starts in an event that really matters. At the same time, it is the only event where different teams are not on equal terms when they take to the start line. The level of tactics is further increased by the fact that some nations have more riders than others.

Unlike the biggest classics, the world championships road race is a circuit race. Several repetitions often make the very long races one of attrition and a gradual elimination race and the familiarity with the course make the tactics different than in most other one-day races. Earlier it was mostly held entirely on a circuit that was to be repeated several times but in 2010, a new trend was started when the riders covered a long stretch in the beginning of the race before getting to the actual circuit. That idea was repeated in 2011 and 2012 and will also be the layout for the 2013 edition of the event.

Last year Philippe Gilbert finally won what appeared to be a long overdue world championships title. On the back of what had been a hugely disappointing season in which he had mostly lacked the fantastic kick that made his 2011 campaign truly exceptional, the Belgian was suddenly back to his best when he accelerated furiously the final time up the Cauberg and held off is chasers on the final flat 1km stretch to the finish. Behind, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Alejandro Valverde had escaped in pursuit with the Norwegian winning the sprint for 2nd. This Gilbert will be back and until now, his 2013 season has not been too different from his 2012. Gilbert will now hope that the trend continues all the way to the end.

The course

Being located in the Italian city of Florence, this year's course has been dubbed as the hardest since the one used for the 1995 world championships in Colombia and that assessment doesn't appear to be completely unjustified. As usual, the scene is a mainly a circuit that will be repeated several times. However, the one for this year's edition is extremely tough and includes a rather long climb and a short, steep ramp. Repeated ascents of those two climbs add up to make the race comparable with a grand tour mountain stage when it comes to climbing and if one adds the unusual 272,2km length, a very hard race is in store.

As said, the organizers have decided to stick with the recent tradition introduced by the Australian route designers for the 2010 championships and let the riders cover an initial stretch before getting onto the main 16,57km circuit in Florence. The riders will start the race in Lucca and take on a 105,79km journey that is mostly flat but contains two smaller climbs and brings the riders in mostly a easterly direction from Lucca to Firenze. Already at the 14,2km mark, the peloton will reach the top of Montecarlo climb (3,75km, 3,5%, max 9%) which is an irregular ascent with an easy beginning that is followed by a steeper ramp, a small descent and a more difficult final 1,25km with a gradient of mostly 7,6%. At the top, 2,25km of mostly flat roads lead onto a fast 2km descent. The climb is likely to play a role in the creation of the early breakaway but won't have any impact on the race.

Almost 40km of flat roads lead the riders to the bottom of the San Baronto climb (3,9km, 7,1%, max. 11%) whose first kilometer is rather easy with a gradient of 5%. The next 1,5km are much harder with a gradient of around 9% before it level out towards the end with the gradient dropping to 6%. At the top, the riders start the 6,55km descent which is not very steep and has a rather constant 5% gradient.

From there, the riders head along completely flat roads to Firenze and pass through the city to get to the circuit that is located in the northeastern part. After 105,79km, they will hit the circuit and 0,77km further up the road, the cross the finish line for the first time to start the first of 10 laps on the 16,57km circuit.

Shortly after the finish line, the riders turn left and take another 3 sharp turns while travelling along slightly ascending roads before getting to the day's main challenge, the Fiesole climb (4,37km, 5,2%, max. 9%) that leads to the small city of the same name. The road is winding with 3 hairpin bends. The first 1,3km are rather easy with a gradient of around 4-5% after which the climb levels a bit out with a 2,5% gradient on the next kilometre. From there things get more serious as the final 2km have a 6-7% gradient and a steep 9% section 1,2km from the top.

Having crested the summit, the riders immediately take on the descent whose first 2,5km are rather technical and have a 5-6% gradient. Having reached the northernmost point, the riders turn around and head back towards Firenze. The next 2,5km are technically much easier and much less steep with a gradient that hovers around the 3% mark.

At the bottom, the riders make a sharp right hand turn to head up the short 600m Via Salviati climb which is a steep 10,2% ramp with a maximum gradient of 16%. At the top, the riders turn left to head along slightly winding roads that descend at a 2-4% gradient. 3km from the line, the peloton will take a left-hand turn that leads onto a very short 10% hill that may be a legbreaker on the otherwise descending roads. From there, the roads are mostly slightly descending at a 1% gradient all the way to the line with the final 570m being flat. The first part of this section is very technical with 5 sharp turns and two successive U-turns. The final of those leads onto the 1,5km finishing straight on Via Paoli Mandela Forum.

A worlds race usually follows a typical script which makes it one of attrition and gradual elimination and with a slightly longer distance and a harder course than usual, this will only be more evident this year. The opening part of the race serves the purpose of creating the early break and there's usually a bit of tactics going on in this part of the race. To avoid the sole responsibility for the pace-setting, the big nations will all make sure that none of those are represented in the move that ultimately goes clear and the early escapees are unlikely to be from any of the major favourite teams. Instead, it offers some of the smaller nations a chance to get some time in the spotlight. When the break is established, the rest of the opening stretch and the first couple of laps on the circuit will mostly serve to accumulate fatigue while the tempo is gradually increased and the elimination starts. The break usually gets a rather big gap but has to be kept under reasonable control to avoid the 2010 scenario when the early break almost lapped the field on the 15,9km circuit.

The race usually kicks off in earnest inside the final 100km when the tactical battle begins. With some teams wanting a hard race, they start to send riders up the road and it's a game of chess for the big teams to make sure that they don't find themselves missing from a move that contains most of their rivals. With a high-calibre field in which a number of the world's best climbers play domestique roles, we are likely to see some  big-name riders go on unusually attacks to tighten the screws for their captains.

For the main riders themselves, a world championships is usually a waiting game. It's often important to stay calm and hide in the peloton, always believing that the different moves will be reeled in in time for the finale. Very often the world champion doesn't show his cards until the final lap and unless this year's race develops into an extremely hard one, the crucial selection is likely to be made the final time up the Fiesole climb. While that ascent is perfect to reduce the number of winner candidates to a select few, the steep Via Salviati is the place to launch the final decisive attack. The final kilometres from the top of Fiesole to the finish could very well develop into a tense tactical battle where domestique resources will be limited and where it will be very difficult for the leaders to respond to all attacks. The winner will be one with a good pair of climbing legs, tactical prowess and a calm head in a hectic finale.

The favourites

Rarely before has a world championships course been so heavily discussed as it has been this year. The route in Florence presents itself as an opportunity for both classics specialists and climbers with the former group hoping that the climbing is not too severe and the latter putting its faith in the climbs to rule out the punchier guys. Not even Thursday's recon ride did bring any clarification with Robert Gesink telling CylingQuotes that it was one for pure climbers and Peter Velits not being too impressed by its difficulty.

Yesterday was the day of the big dress rehearsal  when the U23 riders tested themselves on the course. While the race was a selective one with only 20 riders finishing in or ahead of the main peloton, it wasn't one for the true climbers. Strong sprinters like Caleb Ewan and Sondre Holst Enger all made it to the finish in the main group and this suggests that the race suits classics riders more than the pure climbers. U23 world champion Matej Mohoric shared that assessment, saying that the course wasn't hard enough to get rid of riders like Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan.

While this plays the race into the hands of the punchier guys, it may prompt the teams of the climbers to race harder than they would otherwise have done. If the first races had all blown to pieces, fear for the course could have put a dampener on the initiative. That is now unlikely to be the case with countries like Italy, Spain and Colombia all being forced to make the race tough rather early. Compared to the U23 race, the elite battle is 100km longer and the 10 ascents of the two main climbs add up to 50km of climbing in a 270km race. If several countries take the initiative early in the race, those numbers suggest that it has the potential to be a tough one.

There's probably one rider who wants the rainbow jersey more desperately than any other. Fabian Cancellara is almost obsessed by his dream of becoming road race world champion and this year he has put everything into one big attempt to finally fulfil his dream. He skipped the Tour de France to fully focus on the battle for the rainbow jersey and he turned up at his final preparation race in the Vuelta looking leaner than ever before.

When he started the Spanish grand tour, many still had the impression that the Worlds course would be too tough for the fabulous Swiss but he proved those assessments wrong by his splendid riding. On some of the toughest mountain stages, he whittled the peloton down to less than 50 riders while working for Chris Horner, and he tested himself out by hanging onto the group of favourites for a long time in some of the mountain stages. His win in the time trial on a tough course was a testament to his strength and he generally left an impression of being climbing stronger than ever during the Spanish race.

Cancellara may mostly have excelled in the cobbled classics but he has proved that he handles hillier courses well when he gets the chance to prepare himself specifically for the races. He mixed it up with the climbers in the Beijing Olympics where he finished on the podium and he was the strongest rider in the 2009 Worlds in Mendrisio - on a course that Alejandro Valverde describes as harder than the one in Florence. The race has to be very hard for Cancellara to fall out of contention and based on the U23 race, that is unlikely to be the case.

Cancellara has a number of different weapons in his armoury. Not being the strongest climbers in the race, he is likely to race rather conservatively whenever the roads point upwards. Instead, he probably prepares one lethal attack on one of the flatter stretches or the descents on the final lap. Everybody knows that he is almost uncatchable if he gets a slight gap and among the race favourites, he is certainly the most powerful rider. At the same time, he is a rather fast sprinter and while he may not beat the likes of Peter Sagan, Alejandro Valverde and Philippe Gilbert in a flat finish like the one in Florence, he doesn't have to arrive at the finish completely on his own

However, he also faces a number of difficult challenges. Everybody knows that Cancellara cannot be allowed any leeway at all and he won't get much freedom. He has found himself in that position many times and has managed to overcome his difficulties. On this course, he is, however, unlikely to just ride away from his rivals and will be much more reliant on an attack in one of the less difficult sections of the race. For this to be successful, he needs to catch his rivals off guard and so his recent riding hasn't done him too many favours. Furthermore, he can expect to be isolated on the final lap while several countries may still have a couple of riders at their disposal. That could create a very uncontrollable finale and with Cancellara being one of the major favourites, he will have to take plenty of responsibility. He has lost big races in this way before and that could happen again. At the moment, Cancellara is, however, so impressive that he may overcome those difficulties to finally take the rainbow jersey.

Peter Sagan is one of the dominant riders in the professional peloton but the really big one-day win is still missing from his palmares. Tomorrow may be the day when everything finally falls into place for the magnificent Slovakian who has shown fantastic condition. Following his debut Tour in 2012, he never hit peak condition in the autumn but this year things have been different. Shortly after stepping down from the podium on the Champs-Elysees, he travelled to Colorado where he trained at altitude and dominated the USA Pro Challenge. He continued his amazing campaign in the Tour of Alberta where he crushed the opposition in the prologue, before targeting the two Canadian WorldTour races.

He delivered two completely different showings in those events. In Quebec, he did too much too early and paid the price in the uphill sprint. Just as people were starting to see a chink in his armour, he got back on track in Montreal where not even Chris Froome was able to stay on his wheel when he attacked furiously on the climbs. He left everybody else behind and took one of his most impressive wins.

If he can produce a similar performance tomorrow, he will be very hard to beat. When he won a tough mountain stage in the Tour de Suisse, he showed that he can handle very hard climbing and at the moment, his condition appears to be even better. However, this is a completely different race with a much longer distance. While Sagan has partially overcome his tendency to fade towards the end of long races, he is not his own superior self at the end of the biggest races. The Slovakian camp knows this and Peter Velits told CyclingQuotes that the distance was his major concern. He faded at the end of a 200km race in Quebec and tomorrow's race is much tougher. Sagan's first challenge will be to stay fresh all the way to the finale.

If he manages to do that, he finds himself in a more complicated tactical situation than any other rider. Many events develop into an "all-against-Sagan" race and that has often been costly for the Slovakian. Everybody knows that he is virtually unbeatable in the sprint and so nobody wants to ride anywhere with him. If he is still present on the final lap, he can expect to be put severely under attack and he is very unlikely to have any teammates at his disposal. He will have to respond to all attacks on his own and that is simply impossible.

A potential ally is Cancellara. The Swiss is likely to be similarly isolated and he will do the utmost to become world champion. The Swiss often has difficulties staying calm in the hectic finales and does too much too early. If a group rides away in the finale, Cancellara could be the rider that brings it back together. It may be a wise decision for Sagan to stay close to Cancellara. If he can respond to the Swiss' accelerations, he may find himself in a position where he can take the win by virtue of his fast sprint.

If the race turns out to be a hard race for the climbers, Alejandro Valverde stands out as the major favourite. Among the stage race riders, the Spaniard is clearly the fastest and he can be confident in himself if it comes down to a small group sprint without the classics riders. Spanish national coach Minguez has made it clear that it is all for Valverde and their main task will be to make the race so tough that only the strongest climbers remain. The Movistar riders has one of the strongest teams at his disposal with the likes of Joaquim Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Jose Herrada and Luis Leon Sanchez making up a simply formidable line-up for this kind of race. Knowing that they have to get rid of the likes of Sagan before the finish, they will race aggressively and hard on the climbs. Rodriguez plays the role as lieutenant and is likely to mark some of the late attacks.

The main question for Valverde is his recovery. He has had a long season and recently finished 3rd in the Vuelta a Espana. However, nobody knows the Vuelta-Worlds double better than Valverde who has finished on the Worlds podium no less than 4 times. While many other riders faded towards the end of the Spanish grand tour, Valverde kept his strength all the way to the finish. Spain has the team to make it a race of attrition and Valverde has the speed to finally give the country its first rainbow jersey since Oscar Freire's 2004 win.

Until now, Philippe Gilbert's 2013 season has been more or less a copy of his 2012 campaign. He had a bad start to the year and failed to make much of an impression during the classics. During the summer, he raced himself into form during the Tour and finally found his best legs in the Vuelta. Last year he won two stages and this year he finally got that elusive first win in the rainbow jersey when he triumphed on stage 12. He finished his preparation by riding a few one-day races in Northern Europe and proved to be strong in the GP de Wallonie where he only lost out on the chance to go for the win due to complicated tactics.

He claims to be in good condition for his title defence but there are major differences compared to last year. He may have raced well at the Vuelta but his performance 12 months ago was far more convicning. At the same time, the course in Limburg was tailor-made for him unlike the one in Florence which may be a bit too tough. Via Salvati suits him really well but 10 times up the ascent may be a bit too much for the Belgian. His team appears to be aware of the fact that a Gilbert win is less likely than last year and will enter the race with a much more open strategy than last year's single-eyed one. Greg Van Avermaet and Jan Bakelants both expect to get their own chances during the race and with only 7 riders, Belgium can't play the same dominant role as they did last year.

However, a win for Gilbert cannot be ruled out. He is unlikely to ride away from his rivals like he did last year but he doesn't need to. Among the favourites, he is one of the fastest sprinters and if he can get rid of Sagan, he can allow himself to be confident in his sprint. Valverde may be slightly faster and Cancellara may also pose a threat but apart from those two riders, few of his rivals will be able to challenge him in a sprint finish. With a number of weapons at his disposal, Gilbert may repeat last year's performance.

It's rare for a Tour de France champion to target the world championships but this year's hilly course has attracted the attention of Chris Froome. Instead of putting an early end to his season, he travelled to North America following a short post-Tour break and has gradually built up a some good form for tomorrow's race. He tried his best in the Canadian WorldTour races but the climbs were too explosive and the race not tough enough for him to make a difference. However, he is confident that he has the condition to challenge for the win tomorrow and has meticulously prepared the race by climbing the major ascents several times.

Froome may not have been at his best in Canada but nobody knows how to prepare specifically for an event like the Tour champion. When he claims to be ready, there's every reason to believe that he is. However, he needs a hard race to excel and his team is not strong enough to make it tough. He may have Bradley Wiggins at his side but the 2012 Tour champion is not in the climbing form that will allow him to have a major impact on the race. Froome will have to leave it to Colombia, Italy and Spain to make the race and hope that all will be on their ropes when they hit the final lap. At his best, Froome is strong enough to drop his rivals on the final climbs and he actually has a solid sprint, should a few riders stay with him all the way to the finish.

So far Italy has had very little success in their home championships. The rider who bears the weight of the host nation on his shoulders is Vincenzo Nibali who has marked the Worlds road race out as his major objective in the second half of the season. While he finished 2nd in the Vuelta, he always kept an eye on his home race and there is little doubt that he is up for the challenge.

However, Nibali is not your typical one-day rider and with a flat finish, it will be very hard for him to win. To take the rainbow jersey, he needs to arrive at the finish on his own and that scenario will be difficult to realize. It requires an extremely hard race and while he has several strong climbers at his disposal, the first few races haven't suggested that this is a course for Nibali. On the other hand, he has shown in past classics that he handles shorter climbs in long races really well. He came close to winning the 2012 Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 2011 Giro di Lombardia by riding away from his rivals on steep climbs late in the long classics and that is what he will try to do tomorrow. It's a massive task but Nibali is such a strong and wily rider that an Italian win cannot be ruled out.

At the end of a 270km race, anarchy may rule if no rider has any domestiques left. If everybody is looking at Sagan and Cancellara in the finish, a small group of wily, aggressive riders may go clear and take a surprise win. One of the riders who could capitalize from such a scenario is Rui Costa. The Portuguese has few teammates at his side and has to hide in the peloton for most of the day. However, few riders know how to time a late attack like the double Tour de Suisse winner and if he gets away in small group, he is very fast in a  sprint. He has gradually built up form for this race and he has all the characteristics to shine on this kind of course. Recently, he showed great condition in the Canadian races and his form is definitely on the rise. It would be a wise decision to look out for a Portuguese jersey in the finale.

Finally, the Colombian team deserves a mention. Apart from the Spanish and Italian rosters, the Colombian is probably the strongest and they have several cards to play. They will do their utmost to make the race explode on the climbs and make it one for the true mountain goats. With Sergio Henao being short of form, the team is likely to focus on Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran in the finale. Quintana showed good form in the Tour of Britain but was clearly not at his Tour de France level. As the course also appears to be less selective than expected, Uran may be Colombia's best card. The Sky rider fell out of GC contention in the Vuelta due to the Andorran cold but bounced back with a solid showing in the final part of the race. Like Costa, he is a wily competitor, in great condition and is very fast in a sprint. If a small group gets clear in the finish, Uran may get the chance to make up for his mistake in the 2012 Olympics

***** Fabian Cancellara

**** Peter Sagan, Alejandro Valverde

*** Philippe Gilbert, Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa, Rigoberto Uran

**Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez, Michele Scarponi, Daniel Martin, Jan Bakelants, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler

* Greg Van Avermaet, Diego Ulissi, Tejay van Garderen, Nicolas Roche, Cadel Evans, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tanel Kangert, Chris Horner