Cycling may have its five historic monuments but no one-day race carries more prestige than the World championships road race. No other international cycling race earns you the right to wear a distinctive jersey throughout an entire season than the yearly contest for the honour of being the world's best and it's the only race that attracts equal interest from classics riders, stage race specialists, sprinters and climbers. For one day, cycling returns to its past when riders no longer represent their trade teams but form unusual and often difficult alliances with their compatriots to represent their home country.  The world championships road race is a truly unique event!

 

Most sports organize World Championships to determine their strongest athlete and in most cases, the event is the pinnacle of the sport. While the latter may not be entirely true in the case of cycling whose publicity and recognition make it overshadow every other race, the World Championships road race plays a unique role on the cycling calendar.

 

While the first track world championships were held back in 1893 - when the UCI wasn't even founded - the first honour of being the world's best road racer was awarded in 1927 when Alfredo Binda was the best in an Italian 1-2-3 on Nürburgring. At a time when many of the current cycling races already had established themselves and had a long history, the event immediately gained huge prestige as it is reflected by what is simply a formidable winners list.

 

With the event awarding the honour of being the best in the world, it's no surprise that the event has been dominated by the two strongest countries in the history of cycling. Belgium tops the list with its 26 titles followed by Italy with 19 while France is a distant 3rd with its 8 wins. Due to the varying nature of the courses and the tactical aspects of road racing, it is no mean feat to be a repeat winner of the title and only four very distinguished cyclists have accomplished the feat of triumphing three times: Alfredo Binda, Rik Van Steenbergen, Eddy Merckx and the more recent Oscar Freire.

 

One element of its prestige is of course the universal honour of being the world champion. What makes it even more special is the symbol of that status: the rainbow jersey. Cycling is famously known for its distinctive jerseys but they are usually only attached to specific events. Only one international race may earn you the right to wear a jersey throughout an entire year and that makes the win that more coveted. At every race, the world is reminded of the win and the status and while it may not always be a tactical advantage to stand out in the peloton, the importance from a publicity viewpoint cannot be underestimated.

 

Another aspect turns the world championships into a unique event. While most one-day races have a more or less fixed route with little room for variation, the Worlds are of a different nature. Held on different courses from year to year, the aim is to provide different types of riders with the opportunity to become world champions at some point during their career. The World Championships road race has no fixed format: one year it may be a paradise for the sprinters while the next may be one for the climbers or classics specialists

 

In that sense, it is different from many other sports in which the venue has little influence on the outcome. Road cycling is one of the most versatile sports and that makes it much harder to talk about the sport's best athlete. While the rainbow jersey is never worn by the strongest rider in every kind of road cycling, most of the best riders in a generation usually get the opportunity to wear it at some point in his career. No one can expect to be a contender every year: just recall how reigning champion Mark Cavendish played a loyal domestique role on the hilly course in Limburg in 2012. As it is always the case in road racing, luck plays a certain role but there is not too much randomness involved when it comes to the World Championships. It is certainly no coincidence that most of the strongest riders in the cycling history have worn the rainbow jersey at some point in their career.

 

In modern day sports, money plays a crucial role and cycling is no exception. Usually, the riders represent their trade teams but for one day they return to the past when they represent their country at the World Championships. While it takes the role of national pride to a whole new level, it creates difficulties for the national coaches who suddenly have to unite rivals in fighting for a common goal. The history is loaded with examples where those missions have failed and where national teams have been divided into different camps that reflect their trade teams and personal relationships. In modern day cycling, former Italian national coach Franco Ballerini was famously known for his ability to unite what had usually been a very disharmonious Italian team.

 

Like most other sports, cycling is usually a rather hierarchical with the best teams usually competing against each other but at the World Championships, the smaller nations get their chance to get some time in the spotlight. Lesser-known riders that are usually far from the glory of the WorldTour events race against the world's biggest starts in an event that really matters. At the same time, it is the only event where different teams are not on equal terms when they take to the start line. The level of tactics is further increased by the fact that some nations have far more riders than others and it is usually a significant disadvantage for even the strongest rider to come from a small nation.

 

Unlike the biggest classics, the World Championships road race is a circuit race. Several repetitions often make the very long races one of attrition and a gradual elimination race and the familiarity with the course make the tactics different than in most other one-day races. Earlier it was mostly held entirely on a circuit that was to be repeated several times but in 2010, a new trend was started when the riders covered a long stretch in the beginning of the race before getting to the actual circuit. That idea was repeated in 201, 2012 and 2013 but this year the race will go back to its traditional format of being held entirely on a circuit.

 

Last year the race was held in Florence on a course that was claimed to be the hardest since the 1995 edition in Colombia and it turned out to be a race of attrition. Home nation Italy and torrential rain made the race brutally hard which made it possible for the strongest climbers to create a selection. In the end a front group with Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa and Rigoberto Uran emerged. After the latter had crashed out, Rodriguez escaped and seemed to be poised to take the win. However, Valverde made a huge tactical mistake by not following Costa in the finale and the Portuguese bridged to the tiny climber before easily beating him in a sprint. Valverde easily won the sprint for third but earned lots of criticism for what was generally regarded as a tactical disastrous performance. This year Costa will be back to defend his title while Valverde and Rodriguez will  try to forget about last year’s disagreements as they combine forces on a Spanish home team that is fully build around Valverde.

 

The course

World Championships road races are always mostly circuit races. This means that there is never room for any big mountains and so the pure climbers have very little chance to shine. On the other hand, organizers are usually keen not to design completely flat courses. Hence, the race usually suits the classics specialists with a fast sprint. One year it may be a harder affair that suits the Ardennes riders while other editions lean more towards the heavier guys that excel in the cobbled classics.

 

Last year’s race in Florence turned out to be one of the few editions that suited the climbers. Italy made the race bloody hard and it ended up as a race of attrition. This year the race is back to a more traditional format that seems more suited to the traditional classics specialists but it is heavily debated whether it is one for the strong sprinters or one for the Ardennes specialists.

 

For the first time since 2009, the race will be back to its traditional format of being held entirely on a circuit. There will be no opening section from a start outside the host city and instead the race will be made up of 14 laps of an 18.2km circuit. At 254.8km, it will have the usual length of a Worlds road race but it will be significantly shorter than last year’s mammoth affair of more than 270km.

 

The circuit only has a limited amount of flat sections and mainly consists of two climbs and their subsequent descents. Starting in the centre of Ponferrada, the first 4.5km are almost completely flat and slightly technical as there are a few turns to negotiate while the riders head though  the city in a southeasterly direction. Having climbed to the Castillo de los Templarios after 3.5 of racing, the riders continue along flat roads out of the city before they hit the main climb.

 

The Confederacion ascent is 5.2km long, has an average gradient of 3.3% and a maximum gradient of 8.7%. It follows a long, only very slightly winding road on the northeasterly outskirts of the city and is hardest on the lowers slopes. The first kilometre has an average gradient of 4.2% and includes two 8% sections while the second kilometre averages 5% and has another 8% section. The third kilometre is very similar with an average of 4.8%. The final 2.2km are significantly easier as the fourth and fifth kilometres average 1.8% and 0.7% respectively, meaning that the climb really is more of a 3km ascent with an average gradient of around 4.5%.

 

Shortly before the riders turn left and as soon as they have crested the summit, they hit the descent. It is only one kilometre long, pretty technical and a bit steeper than the ascent. At the bottom, there’s a short, sharp climb of a few hundred metres and then it’s onto slightly ascending roads. 

 

With 5.5km to go, the riders turn left to return back towards Ponferrada and hit the bottom of the second climb, Mirador. At 1.14km, it is a short affair and the average gradient of 5.5% is not to frightening either. With an average gradient of 10%, the first 200m are the steepest but then it becomes significantly easier. The next 600m have a gradient of 3-5.5% before it again gets a bit more difficult with 200m at 6%, including another 10% section. The final 140m are easy as they only average 2%.

 

Having reached the summit, the riders take on the descent which is fast, non-technical affair. It ends just 2km from the line and the final section is pretty straightforward. Being completely flat, it offers a few roundabouts before the riders take the final right-hand turn just 600m from the line.

 

A Worlds race usually follows a typical script which makes it one of attrition and gradual elimination. The opening part of the race serves the purpose of creating the early break and there's usually a bit of tactics going on in this part of the race. To avoid the sole responsibility for the pace-setting, the big nations will all make sure that none of those are represented in the move and the early escapees are unlikely to be from any of the major favourite teams. Instead, it offers some of the smaller nations a chance to get some time in the spotlight. When the break is established, the first couple of laps on the circuit will mostly serve to accumulate fatigue while the tempo is gradually increased and the elimination starts. The break usually gets a rather big gap but has to be kept under reasonable control to avoid the 2010 scenario when the early break almost lapped the field on the 15.9km circuit.

 

The race usually kicks off in earnest inside the final 100km when the tactical battle begins. With some teams wanting a hard race, they start to ride hard on the front or send riders up the road and it's a game of chess for the big teams to make sure that they don't find themselves missing from a move that contains most of their rivals. With a high-calibre field in which a number of the world's best climbers play domestique roles and several teams want to make the race hard, we are likely to see some big-name riders go on unusually attacks to tighten the screws for their captains.

 

For the main riders themselves, a World Championships is usually a waiting game. It's often important to stay calm and hide in the peloton, always believing that the different moves will be reeled in in time for the finale. Very often the world champion doesn't show his cards until the final lap and we will probably see the main moves from the captains of the teams that will avoid a bunch sprint during the final passages of the two climbs. None of the two ascents are very hard and it will be hard to make too much of a difference. To be able to change the script of a sprint finish, teams like Spain and Italy need to make the race hard from early on and the 4284m of climbing will make it possible to do so. The final descent clearly favours the bunch while the first one is more technical. Hence, the Confederacion climb is probably more suited to making the final decisive attack and from there it will be all about holding off the chasing peloton in the high-speed finale.

 

 

The weather

The World Championships got off to a rainy start but since Wednesday, it has been beautiful sunshine. For most of the week, rain has been forecasted for Sunday’s race but now the predictions are a bit more optimistic.

 

At the moment, it seems that rain will be falling during the night but by the time the race starts, the roads will have dried up. During the race, there will be a bit of sunshine on a partly cloudy day but the most likely scenario is that it will stay dry. Rain is forecasted for the evening and it can’t be ruled out that the riders will be hit by a shower. The temperature will reach a maximum of 17 degrees.

 

Until now, the wind has been blowing from an easterly direction but tomorrow it will be coming from the west. Furthermore, it will be a bit stronger than it has been for the first few days. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind on the first climb, a headwind on the descent and a cross-headwind on the final climb, the final descent and the flat run-in to the finish.

 

The favourites

The fact that the course for the World Championships varies from year to year means that it is usually discussed and scrutinized a lot in the final 12 months before the event. While the national coaches check it out, lots of riders are usually busy proclaiming that this year’s route is tailor-made for them. The classics all have a pretty fixed format but for the World Championships, you may see sprinters, classics riders and climbers all claiming that they can prevail.

 

This year it has been no different. At first, it was claimed to be tailor-made for Peter Sagan’s versatile skills but both climbers and sprinters have expressed their optimism for the race. As more riders have had the chance to check the course, the general perception has changed slightly and most now agree that the course is not as hard as many initially thought. Nonetheless, the rider selections clearly indicate that different nations have different plans and ideas and plans for a course that will offer lots of possible outcomes. While Spain, Italy and the Netherlands have lined up rosters that are geared towards a hard, selective race, Germany and Australia will all be working to set up a sprint finish from reduced bunch.

 

The circuit was used for this year’s Spanish road race championships which turned out to not be overly selective. However, Sunday’s race will be a lot longer and the dynamics of the race will be completely different. In June, Movistar was far stronger than everybody else while the tactics and interests will be a lot more complicated on Sunday.

 

The general impression after Thursday’s recon was that the route was less hard than expected and people started to wonder whether a number of countries have made a mistake by bringing so many climbers to the race. The Dutchmen, Spaniards and Italians have defended their selections, promising to try to create chaos.

 

The elite men always have the advantage of having seen how the previous road races have panned out. When they have been selective, it has often prompted the teams to ride more conservatively. Last year, however, things were different as the course suddenly seemed to be easier than most had expected. This prompted Italy to make the race brutally hard and it turned out to be one for the climbers.

 

This year’s U23 race proved that it is possible for a strong rider to make a difference on the final climb and avoid a sprint finish as Sven Erik Bystrøm stayed away with a small 7-second advantage. All day Australia rode strongly on the front, trying to bring it back for a sprint finish for Caleb Ewan. With small 6-rider teams in the race, however, they lacked the men to bring Bystrøm back after his final teammate Robert Power had followed moves on the final climb. Behind the lone Bystrøm, 38 riders finished in the same time, with Ewan easily winning the sprint for Sunday.

 

The pros will have learned quite a bit from the U23 race. First of all, it proved that it was almost possible for a very strong 6-rider team to keep things together for a sprint and lots of fast finishers were able to hang on over the climbs. In tomorrow’s race, there will be 9-rider teams, meaning that the sprinters will have more firepower at their disposal. Furthermore, more teams will be keen to set up a sprint finish, with Germany and Australia going all in for their fast riders.

 

However, teams like Spain, the Netherlands and Italy also learnt that they have to make the race hard right from the beginning to create a selection. In the U23 race, the first half of the race was ridden at a pretty conservative pace. Tomorrow we can expect those three countries to create chaos from very early on, first by riding tempo on the climbs and later by sending some of their fabulous climbers up the road.

 

That means that we can expect a very fast and aggressive race which won’t come down to the final lap. Of course the main favourites will wait for the finale but this race is loaded with strong lieutenants who have promised to ride aggressively. The Belgians, the Dutchmen, the Italians, the Frenchmen and the Colombians all have lots of riders whose only chance is to attack from the distance and the race will probably develop into one of attrition with a gradual selection, lots of attacks and hard work from the Australians and the Germans who try to keep things together.

 

With two strong 9-rider teams working for a sprint finish, we expect those attacks all to be futile. Furthermore, most teams have a fast finisher on their roster and if they have missed out on a move, they may lend a hand to the chase. In the end, the race favourites have to make the difference on the final lap.

 

Compared to yesterday, the wind direction has changed which means that the riders will have a headwind in the finale. This means that it will be a lot harder to make a difference. Furthermore, Bystrøm probably only stayed away because he had no company and so didn’t have to make any tactical considerations. With a headwind, it will be virtually impossible for a lone rider to drop everybody else and then the game of cat and mouse will probably start. At the moment, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to drop Simon Gerrans and as nobody wants to bring the fast Australian to the line, the most likely scenario is a sprint finish. The main question is which riders will be present in the end.

 

Only one rider can realistically win from every race scenario. Simon Gerrans showed outstanding condition in the Canadian WorldTour races which he both won. Gerrans was not only superior in the uphill sprints, he also seemed to be one of the strongest on the climbs.

 

The climbs in Ponferrada are far easier than the main climb in Montreal and generally suits Gerrans perfectly. Being close to 100% of his capabilities, Gerrans is virtually impossible to drop in this kind of terrain and there is no doubt that he will be there in the finale. Furthermore, he is very fast. The sprint may not be uphill like they were in Canada, and so they definitely suit him a bit less. However, Gerrans is very fast and has won small bunch sprints in the past. In last year’s Tour de France, he even beat Peter Sagan to take his second ever stage victory in the world’s biggest race.

 

Gerrans’ main challenge will be how to handle the race tactically. The Australian is strong enough to follow the attacks on the final climbs. In doing so, however, he is likely to spell the end for the move as no one wants to go to the line with the fast Australian. If things come back together, he will have wasted useful energy for the sprint compared to the sprinters that have remained in the peloton. On the other hand, he cannot allow himself not to respond to the attacks. If his team has been working hard all day, he may be pretty isolated, leaving him with no chance to bring a late move back.

 

Those tactical challenges could be what prevent Gerrans from winning the race. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that he will be the protected Australian sprinter. An in-form Michael Matthews may also get his chance and the pair will decide who to go for during the race.

 

On paper, Matthews is the fastest but Gerrans has a formidable track record of winning sprints, especially at the end of long, hard races. Matthews has never won a big classic and Gerrans is a real master in winning the races that he is really targeting. Unlike Gerrans has spent a lot of energy in the previous attacks, we expect the team to be supporting the Liege champion in the sprint. With Matthews as a lead-out man, he will have the perfect support. On paper, there are faster riders in the group but with the race likely to be a hard one, Gerrans could have the upper hand. He has proved that he can beat the real sprinters, making him our favourite to wear the rainbow jersey in 2015.

 

If it hadn’t been for a recent infection, John Degenkolb would have been our favourite to win the race. As said, Gerrans’ presence in attacks means that things are likely to come down to a sprint from a reduced peloton. If he is still there, Degenkolb will be the major favourite in that case. The German has proved that he can overcome even very hard climbs, most recently in the Vuelta where he rode extremely strongly in stages 4 and 19.

 

On those days, he survived climbs that are way harder than the one in Ponferrada but the main challenge for Degenkolb will be the total amount of climbing. In this race, it is almost up or down all day, meaning that there will be little room for recovery. On the other hand, Degenkolb is a proven classics contender who can definitely handle the distance. While other riders get fatigued, he usually gets stronger after the 200km mark.

 

The main doubt about Degenkolb is of course related to the fact that he has spent several days in hospital after the wounds sustained in a Vuelta crash became infected after he returned to Germany. His team will still be backing him fully but they are prepared to change things if he doesn’t feel good.

 

Another challenge for Degenkolb is the sprint itself. There is a very big chance that Degenkolb will be the fastest rider in the group that will eventually sprint for the win but he usually struggles a bit when it comes to positioning. He is often very reliant on his Giant-Shimano lead-out train which won’t be on hand in tomorrow’s race. As the German team is likely to work hard all day, he may be pretty isolated in the finale. Hence, he will have to move to the front after the final climb by himself and finally get into position on his own. The finishing straight is very narrow and there is a risk that he will never get a clear run to the line. If he does, however, it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat Degenkolb.

 

On paper, the course suits Michael Matthews perfectly but the Australian may have to sacrifice himself for Gerrans. As said, however, Gerrans is likely to follow the moves in the finale while Matthews will just be following wheels. If Gerrans has spent too much energy, the team may decide to do the sprint for the former U23 world champion.

 

Matthews is a very strong climber who even dropped Francisco Mancebo in a mountain stage of last year’s Tour of Utah. More importantly, he has proved that he can handle continuous climbing over long distances as he finished an impressive 12th in this year’s Amstel Gold Race. In the Vuelta, he showed excellent condition and even though he didn’t seem to be climbing as strongly as Degenkolb, he was not far off the mark.

 

Matthews is no pure sprinter and he is unlikely to beat Degenkolb in a head-to-head battle. On the other hand, sprints at the end of a long, hard race are very different from a pure bunch sprint and Matthews may have the benefit of having Gerrans as a lead-out man. That could make all the difference, meaning that Australia have two potential winners of this race.

 

Spain, Italy, Colombia and the Netherlands will try to make this race very hard and if it proves to be too tough for the sprinters, Alejandro Valverde will come to the fore. The Spaniard finds himself under huge pressure as the home nation has built their team fully around the Movistar rider. That’s no coincidence as the course suits him pretty well.

 

Among the favourites, Valverde is obviously the strongest climber and there is no chance than anyone will be able to drop the Spanish leader on this kind of climbs. Furthermore, Valverde is very fast in the sprint and he has actually won small bunch sprints in the fast. He may not be fully at the level of Degenkolb and Matthews but in the classics he has beaten Gerrans in sprints like he did in last year’s World Championships.

 

Valverde will not be content with a sprint from a big group and he will definitely attack in the finale. If a small break makes it to the finish, he will be one of the obvious favourite and will be a genuine winner candidate even if Gerrans is still there. If it comes back to a sprint from a bigger group, he will still be in contention. He is supported by a formidable team of climbers that will try to make the race as tough as possible. If they succeed, they have a rider who can finish it off.

 

Another rider who wants a hard race is Fabian Cancellara. The Swiss has made it clear that his big goal is to win the rainbow jersey and this is one of his final chances. He has prepared meticulously for the race and there is no doubt that he is in good condition.

 

Last year he climbed excellently in the Vuelta and went into the Worlds as the pre-race favourite. In the end the course proved to be hard for him. This year he has been less impressive, meaning that he has flown a bit more under the radar. However, the course suits him pretty well. The climbs are not too steep and only a select few riders can go faster up these mellow gradients than the fast Swiss. Furthermore, the first descent is pretty tricky and while Cancellara may be unable to make a difference compared to the best climbers on the ascents, he could do so on the descents.

 

Finally, Cancellara is very fast in a sprint at the end of 250km race. This year he even finished second in Milan-Sanremo that was decided in a sprint from a pretty big group and in 2011 he was fourth at the World Championships won by Mark Cavendish. In a pure bunch sprint, there are faster riders than the Swiss captain but in a hard race, his sprint is a dangerous weapon. Cancellera can both win the race by escaping solo on a false flat or on a descent or by winning a sprint from a small group.

 

A few months ago, everybody said that this race was Peter Sagan’s to lose. However, the Slovakian’s poor performance in the Vuelta a Espana has made him drop down the list of favourites. In the Spanish race, he rode pretty anonymously and when he finally joined a break, he was the first to get caught. One day later he abandoned the race and when he last raced at the Coppa Agostoni, he was unable to make it into the pretty big group that sprinted for the win.

 

However, Sagan remains a winner candidate on a course that suits him perfectly. He is one of the strongest on this kind of climbs and if he had been at 100%, not even the best climbers would be able to drop him. Even though there are faster riders than him in this field, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest among those that are still present at the finish.

 

The main question is Sagan’s condition. A few days ago, he told CyclingQuotes that he was uncertain about his form and doesn’t have his Tour de France condition. However, this race has been his big goal for the second part of the year and in the first part of his career, Sagan has been famously known for his consistency. Until this autumn, he has never been riding very poorly and he may have been playing games with his rivals. The Slovakian team is clearly not very strong and it would have been very hard for them to control the race for their captain. Now no one will be looking at them and Sagan can just be following wheels. In fact, he may be stronger than expected and he doesn’t need to be at 100% to make it over the climbs.

 

Finally, the final sprint suits him pretty well. No one is a better descender and he should be able to head onto the finishing straight in one of the front positions. He handles the positioning aspect really well which is very important on a narrow finishing straight where it is easy to get boxed in. If he can survive the climb, Sagan take the race he was always tipped to win.

 

One rider that has flown completely under the radar is Ben Swift. For some reason, the British team has attracted very little pre-race attention but this course suits the Sky sprinter down to the ground. Earlier this year he finished in Milan-Sanremo, proving that he can handle the distance, and he won a much harder stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he stayed with all the GC riders before beating them in a sprint.

 

These climbs should not be too hard for Swift who showed great form in the Tour of Britain. He never won a stage as he did a lot of work for Bradley Wiggins but still had enough left in the tank to take numerous top 10 results in some pretty hard stages. This clearly indicates that he is riding strongly and is well-prepared for a race that is his big goal for this part of the season.

 

Swift is not as fast as Degenkolb but in the Giro he sprinted better than ever before. In Milan-Sanremo, he proved that he gets stronger at the end of a long, hard race and on paper, he is one of the best climbers among the sprinters. The British team is very strong and with an in-form Peter Kennaugh and the Yates brothers to lead him out, Great Britain may again take the rainbow jersey.

 

Going into the race, not many have been talking about Alexander Kristoff. However, the Norwegian is a clear outsider on this course. As several teams will try to make the race hard, there is a big chance that it may be a bit too tough for the strong Norwegian but he usually excels at the end of very long races. In the Tour of Flanders, he showed his great climbing skills when he nearly bridged the gap to the front group on his own and seemed to be getting progressively stronger as the race went on.

 

This year Kristoff climbed very strongly in the Norwegian races and on the very hard second stage of the Tour de France where he finished very close to the GC riders. The climbs in that stage were a bit shorter than they are in Ponferrada and the longer climbs may be harder for Kristoff to handle. If he is still there in the end, however, he will be the obvious favourite. He is virtually unbeatable in a sprint at the end of a long hard race as he proved by winning the sprints for the minor placings in three monuments in 2013, by winning Milan-Sanremo in dominant fashion and recently by winning Vattenfall Cyclassics and winning the bunch sprint in the GP Plouay. This year he has been sprinting better than ever before, making a strong outsider for this race.

 

Greg Van Avermaet goes into the race as one of the in-form riders. The Belgian is a perennial top 10 finisher in the biggest races but this autumn he has actually started to win. He recently won the GP de Wallonie and the GP Impanis and rode strongly in the Canadian WorldTour races too.

 

This year he has been given the leadership role of the Belgian team while Philippe Gilbert will have more of a free role and Tom Boonen try to hang on for a sprint. Van Avermaet will be expected to play his cards on the final lap and this kind of climbs suits him pretty well. There is a big chance that he will be among the strongest attackers in the finale and he has a fast sprint to finish it off. However, he is not as fast as Valverde and Gerrans and he needs quite a bit of luck to come away with the win.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is a very strong outsider on this course. The Pole finished in the top 5 in all three Ardennes classics and has proved that he can handle the very long races. While he is not yet able to stay with the best on the very long climbs, he handles the short ones better than most. He showed great condition in the Tour of Britain and is much better prepared than he was for the race in Florence 12 motnhs ago.

 

Kwiatkowski will try to attack on the final lap and be part of the small group that could go clear on the final climb. He is one of the best descenders in the peloton and he may even be able to go clear on his own on the final descent. Finally, he is very fast in a sprint and even though he may have a hard time beating Gerrans and Valverde in a sprint from a breakaway, a Polish world champion can’t be ruled out.

 

The Italian team goes into the race without a clear favourite and they have promised to try to create war by riding aggressively. If it comes down to a sprint, their protected rider will be the in-form Sonny Colbrelli. The Italian is riding extremely strongly at the moment, winning the bunch sprint for the minor placings on two stages of the Tour of Britain before winning both GP Prato and Memorial Marco Pantani and finishing second in Tre Valli Varesine. In the latter race, he climbed extremely well and earlier this year he proved that he can handle the distance by playing a key role in the finale of Milan-Sanremo.

 

Being part of the small Bardiani team, he doesn’t have much experience in the biggest races but he has proved that he can take on the biggest name. It is no coincidence that he has been given a leadership role on the Italian team at this point of the year. There are clearly faster riders than him in this group but don’t rule the Italian out in case of a bunch sprint.

 

One of the jokers of the pack is Nacer Bouhanni. The Frenchman may be known as a sprinter but he is actually a pretty good climber too. His standout performance was the one he delivered in stage 13 of the Vuelta a Espana when he finished in a select group of GC favourites after a very hard finale that had been too much for the likes of Matthews and Degenkolb.

 

Unfortunately, he hasn’t raced since he abandoned the race one day later but in the Route du Sud he proved that he is able to maintain a good condition by training. However, these climbs may be a bit too long for him. In the Vuelta, he excelled in the stages that had short, steep climbs in the finale while he had a harder time on the really long ascents. The total amount of climbing may simply be a bit too much for him. If he is still there though, he will be very hard to beat in a sprint that suits him well as his excellent positioning means that he is unlikely to get boxed in on the narrow finishing straight.

 

If the race turns out to be too hard for Bouhanni, France have other cards to play. One of them is Tony Gallopin who has improved his level massively in the second part of the year. He won a stage and wore the yellow jersey in the Tour de France and he was one of the strongest in Canada.

 

This proves that he is currently in excellent condition and this course suits him pretty well. This year he has been climbing better than ever before and there is a big chance that he will be one of the strongest on the final lap. He sprinted strongly to a third place in Montreal and has a very fast finish. If he is part of a small group at the finish, he may be the rider that breaks the French drought in the Worlds road race.

 

***** Simon Gerrans

**** John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews

*** Alejandro Valverde, Fabian Cancellara, Peter Sagan, Ben Swift

** Alexander Kristoff, Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Sonny Colbrelli, Nacer Bouhanni, Tony Gallopin

* Daryl Impey, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Daniel Martin, Tom Dumoulin, Luka Mezgec, Ramunas Navardauskas, Daniele Bennati, Rigoberto Uran, Giovanni Visconti, Damiano Caruso, Sylvain Chavanel, Bauke Mollema, Tom Boonen, Sep Vanmarcke, Alexandr Kolobnev, Sergei Tvetcov