Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins will be the notable absentees but the rest of the world’s greatest time triallists will all be on the start line of the most important time trial of the year. For everyone who specializes in the unique discipline, the World Championships is a real highlight that gives them a shot at one of the most coveted jerseys in cycling. Tony Martin is gunning for a record-breaking fourth consecutive win, Tom Dumoulin hopes to use his Vuelta a Espana form for a gold medal winning and Rohan Dennis hopes to crown a fantastic season by taking the TT win that matters the most in what should be a hotly contested race on th flat roads in Richmond.

 

Time trialing has always been a natural part of cycling and is the sport in its purest format. Road races are often complicated affairs where team tactics, drafting and gambling are almost as important as pure strength. In a time trial there's nowhere to hide. Finding the fastest rider on a given course comes down to power, an ability to concentrate and ride to the maximum for an extended period of time and the right gauge of one's effort.

 

Time trials have always played a crucial role in stage races and the world has had its highly prestigious one-day TTs, with the Grand Prix des Nations being the most notable example. With this long history, it's a mystery that individual time trialing wasn't included in the world championships until 1994 when Chris Boardman won the first rainbow stripes in Catania. Since then it has been an important part of the global event and has only gained added prestige as time has gone by.

 

While all riders dream of participating in the road race at some point of their career, the time trial remains an exclusive event for the riders that specialize in the discipline. There's room for the lesser-known riders from some of the smaller cycling nations but otherwise it's a race for people that really love the pure and punishing discipline.

 

The winner's list tells the story about an event that has attracted the finest time triallists in the world. Boardman, Miguel Indurain, Alex Zülle, Laurent Jalabert, Abraham Olano, Jan Ullrich (twice), Serhiy Honchar, Santiago Botero, Michael Rogers (three times), Fabian Cancellara (four times), Bert Grabsch, Tony Martin (three times) and Bradley Wiggins are the only riders to have worn the coveted rainbow jersey and there's no room for any kind of lucky, unexpected winner on this highly prestigious list.

 

It remains a clear intention for the organizers that the title belongs to one of the great specialists. While there have been hilly courses in the past - just recall the difficult 2012 route in Limburg that included the famous Cauberg - the course designers have always stayed away from any kind of excessive climbing.

 

Last year the organizers played with the idea of changing the script by hosting a very hard time trial that would have opened the race to a completely new group of riders and closed it for many of the pure specialists. The race was set to finish at the top of a difficult climb, making it a mix of a usual and a mountain time trial. For logistical reasons, however, the idea was abandoned and instead the organizers designed a course that was a lot more traditional and nothing will change for this year’s race in Richmond.

 

A World Championships time trial is completely different from the usual TTs that the riders do in stage races. Due to its distance, it is not comparable to the ones that feature in the weeklong or shorter stage races throughout the year. Only the grand tours have time trials of a similar length but in those races, they usually come after more than a week of hard racing, meaning that recovery plays a massive role. The World Championships offer the riders a unique chance to do a long TT without having to worry about the accumulated fatigue of stage racing.

 

This usually changes the outcome compared to the usual time trials. The long distance closes the door for some riders who are better suited to the shorter courses. Adriano Malori is usually close to the best in the short, flat time trials but when the races become too long, he has a hard time keeping up with the very best. Furthermore, the grand tour time trials are usually dominated by GC riders who have a better recovery than most specialists. In this race, everyone is fresh and this means that the stage race specialists have a harder time living up to their usual strong performances.

 

Finally, the race comes at the end of a very long season which means that fatigue and freshness play a key role. While many riders have prepared specifically for the event and made it a very big goal, everyone can feel the effects of a long season. This adds an extra element of unpredictability to the race.

 

Last year Tony Martin saw his winning streak come to an end just as he was aiming for a record fourth consecutive win. Instead, it was Bradley Wiggins who filled the only big gap in an outstanding palmares by claiming the title that he was almost destined to wear at some point. In exciting duel with Martin, the Brit made use of the hills on the course to put time into the more powerful German who had to settle for second with a time loss of 26 seconds. Tom Dumoulin confirmed that he has entered the time trial elite by taking his first ever medal at Worlds, finishing 14 seconds behind Martin in third and narrowly holding off Vasil Kiryienka and Rohan Dennis. Wiggins is now fully focused on the track and won’t defend his title but Martin, Dumoulin, Kiryienka and Dennis will all be among the favourites in this year’s battle for global honours.

 

The course

As said, the World Championships time trial usually takes place on a relatively flat course and this yearthe holder of the rainbow jersey will again be found in a rather traditional race.

 

The 2012 course was a very difficult one with several climbs and descents that broke the riders' monotony. The organizers decided to send the riders up many of the climbs that characterize the Limburg province and as it was the case in the road races and the team time trials, the top of the famous Cauberg was located just 1km from the finish line. The 2013 course was almost completely flat and at 57.9km, it was unusually long. Together with the 2011 route in Copenhagen, it stands out as the one most suited to specialists in recent years. Last year there was a bit more climbing on the menu but it was again a race dominated by the specialists.

 

This year’s course is easier than last year’s but with a tough little climb in the end it is probably a bit harder than the races in Florence and Copenhagen. Furthermore, the race again covers a distance of more than 50km after last year’s unusually short test in Ponferrada. At 53km, it is not as long as the race in Florence but is very comparable to most of the recent time trials and the organizers have made it significantly longer than the very short team time trial. Furthermore, it follows the recent tradition of not following the road race circuit. In past years, the time trial was almost always held on the main circuit of the race but since the race in Copenhagen, the time trials have had their own courses.

 

The riders will begin their “race of truth” north of Richmond at Kings Dominion, Virginia’s premier amusement park in Hanover County. From there they will then speed past Meadow Event Park, home to the State Fair of Virginia and birthplace of thoroughbred racing legend Secretariat. The roads are mostly straight without any major technical challenges and first bring them to the east before they turn to the south. There are a few smaller climb along the slightly undulating roads but the course is predominantly flat.

 

Long hills on Brook and Wilkinson roads bring the racers back into the city through Virginia Union University before turning into downtown from a northeasterly direction. Here it gets significantly more technical as early half the turns of the entire route fall within the closing kilometers but the roads are still predominantly flat. With 2km to go, there is a short descent that leads to the penultimate turn. Here the riders hit the 300-meter-long climb up Governor Street that also featured at the end of the team time trial. At the top, riders turn left and finally face a false flat 680 meters to the finish. Many riders had the chance to check the final part of the course in Sunday's team time trial where the climb up Governor Street also featured in the finale.

 

With barely any turns and just 245m of elevation gain, this is a course that is mostly about speed and power and perfectly suited to the specialists. The first half is definitely the hardest and is a bit hillier than it looks at the profile and has caught a few riders by surprise. The final part is flatter and more technical. However, there is little doubt that this is a route that suits the specialists.

 

 

The weather

Until now it has been a sunny World Championships and even though rain is forecasted later in the week, it seems that the riders couldn’t have asked for better conditions for Wednesday’s time trial. The forecast predicts lots of sunshine and a maximum temperature of 25 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind or tailwind for almost the entire race until they get to the city centre where there will mainly be a crosswind. The wind will abate slightly and as it will mainly be a tailwind, the early starters may have a slight advantage.

 

The favourites

The 2013 time trial was seen as the ultimate battle between the three giants that have dominated time trialing in the last few years: Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin. With Wiggins and Martin having focused fully on the race for a long time and Cancellara having beaten Martin in the Vuelta TT, all was set for a close battle but the excitement was taken out of the race already from the very start. Martin proved that he was in a class of his own and Wiggins and Cancellara had to battle it out for second.

 

Last year the TT was less anticipated as most expected Martin to dominate the race. His impressive performance just 12 months earlier made him the clear favourite but after the team time trial where Bradley Wiggins looked extremely strong, it suddenly became an open game. In the end, Wiggins made the maximum of his final attempt to become world champion by beating Martin by a surprisingly big margin on a hilly course that suited the Brit well.

 

Already a few weeks after the defeat, Martin recognized that he had made s few key mistakes in his preparation for the event. Having done the entire Tour and most of the Vuelta had left him too fatigued for the races in Ponferrada and he was clearly somewhat shy of his best. This year he has changed his preparation significantly as aims to reclaim the title he lost last year. At the start of the season, he made it clear that he had two big goals: the opening Tour de France TT and the World Championships. After missing the first goal, he will now go all out in an attempt to at least tick off one of his two boxes.

 

With Cancellara and Wiggins both skipping the race, Martin would usually have been the overwhelming favourite for this race. After all, those three riders have been the dominant time triallists for several years and they have usually been in a class of their own compared to the rest, especially in the long TTs. However, a new generation is knocking on the door and two of the most exciting talents are already ready to go for gold this year. This year’s race shapes up to be an extremely exciting battle between Tony Martin, Rohan Dennis and Tom Dumoulin and a Martin victory is far from being the foregone conclusion that one would have expected just 12 months ago.

 

Last year Martin was clearly stronger than both Dumoulin and Dennis but both have made massive improvements since the battle in Ponferrada. Furthermore, Martin is no longer the same dominant figure that he was just a few years ago.

 

Compared to last year’s race, the course in Richmond is flatter and there is no doubt that this is a day for the specialists. Of course the first part is rolling and the final climb will be a stiff challenge as it was evident in the team time trial. However, this race is much longer than the TTT so a bigger part of the race will be held on flat roads, making the climb less important. Furthermore, the riders will mainly have a tailwind and only very few technical challenges, meaning that this is a race for riders that can push the big gears.

 

We will be very surprised if the winner is not one of our three big favourites but it could be any of the three. Due to the fatigue from the Vuelta a Espana, Dumoulin is probably slightly below his two rivals who are very closely matched. If this had been a 30km time trial, we would have no doubt that Dennis would have been our favourite as he seems to be in outstanding condition. However, the distance tips the balance in favour of Martin.

 

Martin has clearly been the best time triallist since 2011 and has generally been hard to beat. Occasionally he has been defeated, especially in shorter tests, but on the very long courses he is extremely hard to beat. The 2013 Worlds were widely regarded as the ultimate test and here he proved that Cancellara and Wiggins were not even close to him when it comes to a long, flat time trial of more than 50km.

 

However, much has happened since then and Martin is no longer the same dominant figure. When it comes to TT results, his 2015 season has been pretty disappointing. In fact he has only won three time trials all year. In February he beat Adriano Malori by less than a second in Algarve and in May he won the very hilly Romandie TT. However, he would probably have beaten by Ilnur Zakarin if the Russian had not had a mechanical in the finale. Of course he won his national championships but he was beaten in the two Paris-Nice TTs (of which one was a mountain time trial), on the very hilly course in Pais Vasco and most notably in the Tour. Most recently, he was only third in the Poitou-Charentes TT behind Malori and Castroviejo.

 

However, it is worth noticing that Martin has not done a long time trial all year apart from at his national championships. In fact, the longest distance was 23km in Poitou-Charentes and most of his time trials have been either extremely hilly or very short. Martin specializes in the very long ones and this means that it would be wrong to put too much emphasis on his past results.

 

Martin has had a complicated build-up for this race as he crashed out of the Tour. He returned to racing in Hamburg and showed good condition by winning Tour du Poitou-Charentes. He had another setback when he had to skip Fourmies due to stomach problems and didn’t seem to be at his best in the Canadian WorldTour races where he was dropped surprisingly early.

 

Like last year he failed to win the TTT and that may not be a good omen. However, he claimed to be very pleased with his feeling and the numbers reportedly looked solid. He claims to have gained confidence from the performance and that’s important to observe for a rider who usually has a very scientific to his time trialling. Indeed, it is true that he looked strong in the race and unlike last year he won’t be fatigued as he has done much less racing than usual. In fact he has probably had a much better preparation than he has had in the past as the Vuelta is unlikely to be the ideal way to get ready for an hour-long effort.

 

That freshness should serve him well on Wednesday in a race where he will face a course that is tailor-made for him. He likes both the flat terrain and the long distance and in the past he has proved that he unbeatable in such circumstances. There is no doubt that Dennis and Dumoulin have narrowed the gap but an in-form Martin mist be the favourite.

 

His biggest rival will probably be Rohan Dennis. It has always been clear that the Australian is an extremely gifted rider but this year he has made massive improvements. Ever since he won the Tour Down Under and set a new Hour Record in the winter, he has gone from success to success and ticked most of his boxes. Most importantly, he became the surprise winner of the ultimate TT test of the year when he beat Martin, Cancellara and Dumoulin in the opening Tour de France time trial.

 

Since the end of the grand tour, Dennis has been fully focused on this week in Richmond and he has had the ideal preparation. He has been training and racing in the USA where he showed impressive form in the USA Pro Challenge. He clearly worked as a domestique for Brent Bookwalter and spent most of the climbs riding on the front, very often into a strong headwind, while also attacking in the sprint stages. Despite his huge efforts, he won two stages, including the time trial, and the race overall in what was one of the most dominant stage race performances of the entire year.

 

Since then it has been all about training for the relatively short efforts of the time trials and there is no doubt that Dennis is in outstanding condition. That was evident in the team time trial where he occasionally looked like he was doing all the work. Afterwards, he even claimed to have had horrible feelings. This speaks volumes about the fact that Dennis could not be better prepared for the challenge.

 

However, a 53.5km individual time trial is much different from the very short Tour time trial in Utrecht and a relatively short team time trial. There is no doubt that Dennis is maybe the best time triallist in the world on short, flat courses but the race is a completely different beast. In fact, Dennis has never proved that he can match the best in the very long time trials. He has had good rides in the past, most notably his breakthrough performance in the 2013 Dauphiné, but he has never won a long time trial at the highest level.

 

This year he has only done a single long TT: at the Australian nationals where he was beaten by Richie Porte. Furthermore, it is worth remembering that he did worse than many had expected in his Hour Record attempt. There is no doubt that Dennis is one of the most talented time triallists in the world but he seems to be better suited to the shorter efforts. He may get more endurance as he matures but as things are, we don’t think he will be able to beat Martin in such a long time trial. On the other hand, his condition will bring him very far and Dennis simply keeps surprising us. He could do so again in Wednesday’s race.

 

The big question mark for this race is obviously Tom Dumoulin. On paper, he would maybe be the biggest threat to another Martin win but there’s one big question mark over his head: how has he recovered from a very hard Vuelta?

 

Last year he stepped up his level massively and quickly turned out to be the best of the rest behind Martin, Cancellara and Wiggins. He was second behind Martin on numerous occasions, most importantly in the Tour TT and it was only fitting that he ended third at Worlds behind Wiggins and Martin.

 

This race was going to be his big goal for the final part of the year but a surprisingly strong showing in the early part of the Vuelta suddenly made him change his plans. Instead of going for glory in select stages, he went full gas every day in what ultimately ended up as a failed attempt to win the race and that is undoubtedly not the best preparation for Worlds, especially not for an hour-long effort in the time trial.

 

However, Dumoulin claims to be feeling good. He has taken it very easy since the Spanish race and even did the course recon for the TTT in the car instead of joining his teammates on the bikes. He got some confidence from the actual race where he felt pretty good and as Giant-Alpecin took a surprisingly good fifth place, there is no doubt that he was on fire.

 

This year Dumoulin has been very hard to beat in time trials. He won in the Vuelta and both TTs in the Tour de Suisse and even took a surprise win on the very hilly course in Pais Vasco where the many very steep climbs made it a day for the climbers. He only had a disappointment in Paris-Nice which was ruined by pre-race illness, and in his big goal at the Tour where he had to settle for fourth behind Dennis, Martin and Cancellara.

 

Dumoulin generally prefers rolling, technical courses and he was pleasantly surprised by the nature of the route in Richmond which he thought would be much flatter. That has boosted his confidence and he has proved that he can handle the distance. Everything will depend on his recovery. If he has come out of the Vuelta in storming condition, he has a chance to win the race. However, his preparation has not been ideal so most likely he will have to settle for a spot on the podium.

 

For many years, Vasil Kiryienka was a solid time triallist but he failed to achieve any major results. That suddenly changed at the 2012 Worlds where he was a surprise third and since then he has turned into a bit of a Worlds specialist. He was fourth in both 2013 and 2014 and seems to have found the right formula to always hit peak condition at a time of the season when most are tired.

 

Kiryienka’s recipe for success is the Vuelta. He always comes out of the Spanish race in very good form and it seems to be no different this year. He was clearly not at his best in the first half but as the race went on, he got better and better. In the final week, he climbed extremely well and was able to stay with the best for a very long time.

 

Kiryienka was only fourth in the time trial which must be a bit of a disappointment. However, it is important not to put too much emphasis in that result as it was actually his best in a Vuelta TT. Despite less stellar performances in Spain, he always seems to come good for the battle for the rainbow jersey. This year he even seems to have improved his level a lot. He won the long Giro time trial and the European Games TT and in general he seems to excel in the very long tests. His previous Worlds performances have proved that he can handle both hilly and flat courses. He got lots of praise from his teammates after the team time trial where he was the driving force that secured ninth for an injured squad. He is unlikely to win but a medal is definitely within his reach.

 

Our dark horse for a medal is Jonathan Castroviejo. The Spaniard has always been a talented time triallist but as he turned his attention to his improved climbing, he clearly lost the edge in 2014. That suddenly seemed to change towards the end of the year when he was 10th at the Worlds and this year he has been better than ever. He was fourth in Tirreno, seventh in Romandie, sixth in the Tour and he took a dominant win at his national championships on a very bad day when he even thought about abandoning.

 

However, what really marks him out as a contender is his performance in the Tour du Poitou-Charentes TT just a few weeks ago. In that race, he was far off the mark at the intermediate check but did a truly impressive second half to finish just one second behind teammate Adriano Malori and beat Martin into third. Unfortunately, he had a setback with a crash in Quebec which forced him to skip a few days of training but he was back in storming condition in the TTT where he looked like one of the main powerhouses that secured bronze for Movistar.

 

The course is definitely a bit too flat to suit a small guy like Castroviejo who doesn’t have Martin’s power. However, this year he has been very close to the best even on courses that are much flatter than this one. With a great condition, we expect him to continue his improvement with another top performance in Richmond.

 

His teammate Adriano Malori has proved that he is able to beat the best of the best in short, flat time trials. However, he has always had a harder time in the very long time trials which he has openly admitted. He is getting better though and last year he boosted his confidence significantly at the Worlds where he finished a fine sixth.

 

This year he was flying at the start of the year as he beat Cancellara in the Tirreno prologue on a course that should have been too technical for him and was less than a second behind Martin in Algarve. However, most of his time trials have been disappointing. He could only manage fourth and ninth in the two Tour de Suisse TTs and 8th in the Tour was a way below his expectations. He was the favourite to win the Eneco Tour TT but could only manage third.

 

Malori showed signs of improvement by beating Martin and Castroviejo in Poitou-Charentes and there is no doubt that he is fully ready for this challenge which has been his big goal since the Tour. On paper, the course should suit him well as it is not too hilly. The main issue remains the distance. There is no doubt that he will medal at some point in his career. The question is whether he is already ready for it in 2015.

 

One rider that has generally flown under the radar, is Wilco Kelderman. The Dutchman burst onto the TT scene in 2012 when he was a very impressive fourth in the Dauphiné TT on a long, completely flat course. As he focused more on his climbing for a few years, he seemed to lose the edge in the TTs but that has changed in 2015 as he has been absolutely flying. He crushed the opposition on another long, flat power course at the Dutch championships where he beat Dumoulin by almost a minute, and got an unfortunate Tour off to a good start with ninth in the TT. Most recently he was second behind teammate Jos van Emden in the Eneco Tour TT.

 

Kelderman’s condition was a bit of a question mark as he had a long break after the Eneco Tour but he proved to be in very good condition in Canada where he was close to winning the event in Montreal which has been described as one of the hardest of the year. He played a key role in the great sixth place for LottoNL-Jumbo in the TTT so there is no doubt that he is ready. He has proved that he is a bit of a specialist in long, flat TTs and could be the second Dutchman to shine in this race.

 

Taylor Phinney is another big question mark for this race. Just two months ago, we would never have believed that we would mention him as an outsider for the World Championships but since he made his comeback from a 15-month recovery at the Tour of Utah, he has constantly surpassed expectations. Most notably, he won a stage in the USA Pro Challenge after having come very close already in Utah and his strong showings were enough to earn him selection for all three Worlds races.

 

Phinney told CyclingQuotes a few days ago that he is as close to his peak as he can possibly get which must be quite scary for his rivals. After all, the American has long been described as one of the biggest TT talents and he already came close to the rainbow jersey in 2012 when he was second behind Martin.

 

There is no doubt that Phinney has the talent to medal in this race and his performance in the TT shows that the form is good. However, no one can deny that his preparation has been far from ideal and there is a vast difference between winning a stage in Colorado and medaling at Worlds. Hence, his personal ambition is to finish in the top 10 to secure the USA a spot at the Rio Olympics. That’s a realistic goal but with a big talent like Phinney, more is not impossible.

 

Alex Dowsett is one of the big specialists in this race but for some reason he has never managed to live up to the lofty expectations that were created when he beat Wiggins at the long time trial in the 2013 Giro. In fact, his time trial results have generally been disappointing but he has occasionally proved that the talent is there. His Hour Record ride was great and he proved his potential by winning the Commonwealth Games TT.

 

However, his preparation for this race has been far from ideal. He fell ill at both the Tour and the Tour de Pologne and has been in search of forms ever since. His legs seemed to have come around for the Tour of Britain though and he is now in a much better place after being part of the good Movistar TTT and taking fourth in the Poitou-Charentes TT. His past results don’t suggest that he will medal but the Brit has had those outstanding rides that could again create a small surprise.

 

For many years, Maciej Bodnar was a solid time triallist who always seemed to finish between 10th and 20th. However, since joining Tinkoff-Saxo at the start of the year, he has clearly improved massively. He was fourth in Qatar and fifth in Tirreno at the start of the year but saw his season be brought to an abrupt halt when he broke his collarbone in the Tour of California. However, he bounced back in the Vuelta where he did a great time trial in the third week to take second behind the dominant Dumoulin.

 

That has definitely boosted his confidence for the race in Richmond. He has had less racing than most and so should be a lot fresher. His ride in the Vuelta proves that the form is there and he was fortunate to avoid the Tinkoff-Saxo crash in the team time trial. Bodnar is unlikely to medal but on a great day a top 5 is not impossible.

 

Stephen Cummings was known as a strong domestique but he is gradually getting stronger and stronger. He took a fantastic stage win in the Tour de France to add to the one he took in the Vuelta a few years ago. At the same time, he has developed into a bit of a specialist for short, flat time trials where he rarely misses the top 10.

 

Cummings has had a harder time in the longer time trials but he still managed to finish in the top 10 in the Vuelta TT. That performance allowed him to get selected for the Worlds and he seems to have left Spain in good condition. The course should suit him well and there is no reason that he can’t develop into a contender in the long TTs too.

 

Nelson Oliveira was in fantastic condition in the Vuelta where he won a stage and rode aggressively throughout the entire race. He was also a fine 8th in the time trial and is now eager to improve on last year’s 7th place at Worlds. That result marked a bit of a turnaround for the former U23 silver medallist as he suddenly showed the potential after having struggled at lot in his first years at the pro level and this year he is clearly stronger than ever. Much will depend on his recovery from the Vuelta as he didn’t seem to take a single easy day throughout the three-week race. If he has recovered, he definitely has the form to do a good ride.

 

The same goes for Jerome Coppel who seemed to get better and better as the Vuelta went on. The Frenchman was fifth in the time trial and that result was just the culmination of a year during which he has shown lots of progress in the TTs. Most notably, he beat his teammate Sylvain Chavanel at the French Championships and he has been a strong contender in almost every TT he has done. This course is a bit too flat to suit him well though and he is more of a time triallist for the stage races where recovery plays a bigger role. Nonetheless, he has shown so much potential this year that he should be able to do well.

 

Finally, Jan Barta deserves a mention. The Czech is one of the big specialists in this discipline as he proved by taking third in last year’s long Tour TT. However, his 2015 time trials have generally been disappointing and he has not been able to live up to his usual standard. On the other hand, he has prepared specifically for this event and in the last two editions he has been up there. He loves this kind of long time trial and he has proved to be in good condition recently.

 

***** Tony Martin

**** Rohan Dennis, Tom Dumoulin

*** Vasil Kiryienka, Jonathan Castroviejo, Adriano Malori

** Wilco Kelderman, Taylor Phinney, Alex Dowsett, Maciej Bodnar, Stephen Cummings, Nelson Oliveira, Jerome Coppel, Jan Barta

* Luis Leon Sanchez, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Stefan Küng, Andriy Grivko, Matthias Brändle, Marcin Bialoblocki