By finishing second in the time trial, Miguel Angel Lopez delivered one of the biggest surprises in the 2016 season and the talented Colombian is now on the verge of a breakthrough win in just his second pro season. However, nothing is decided yet as the final stage offers two of the hardest mountains in Switzerland and more bad weather on a short, intense course that is guaranteed to be the scene of a big war between the GC riders.

 

The course

Like in 2014, the organizers have decided to give the climbers the upper hand. Usually, the final stage has been a time trial but in 2016, the riders will face a tough mountain stage on the final day. Stage 9 may not have a summit finish but as it offers two big climbs in just 117.7km which have a total of 2633m of climbing, nothing will be guaranteed until the end of the race. Everything can be lost on what will be a short, intense ride over some of the legendary Swiss climbs.

 

In recent years, it has become popular for organizers to design short, mountain stages and the 2016 Tour de Suisse will offer such a stage on the final day. The 117.7km stage both starts and finishes in Davos and consists of a big circuit on the southern outskirts of the city. After a slightly descending first 30km, the road will gradually start to rise until the riders reach the bottom of the mighty HC climb of the Albulapass (17.4km, 6.9%).

 

The top comes with 66.1km to go and is followed by a short descent and a flat section that leads to the bottom of another HC climb, the Flüelapass (12.9km, 7.4%). It’s a relatively irregular climb with several sections of more than 10% and some flatter sections along the way too. The hardest part comes on the lower slopes and in the middle part while the road levels out near the top which is located just 17.5km from the finish. The descent isn’t too technical and ends with around 6km to go. From there, the road is mainly slightly descending. The riders will follow a winding road until they take two sharp turns in quick succession just before the flamme rouge.

 

Davos last hosted a stage of the Tour de Suisse in 2009 when Bernhard Eisel won a reduced bunch sprint after a hilly ride.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had great luck to avoid the rain in today’s time trial but they are unlikely to have similar luck on Sunday. Throughout the day there is an 80% chance of rain and as the temperature in Davos will only be 9 degrees, it will be a cold day too.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind and a cross-tailwind on the Albulapass. There will be a crosswind and a cross-headiwnd on the descent and then there will be headwind and cosswind on Flüelapass. It till be a cross-headwind on the descent until the riders turn into a cross-tailwind with 5km to go. There will be a cross-headwind in the final 1200m.

 

 

The favourites

At the start of the race, Miguel Angel Lopez was one of the big outsiders for the overall at the Tour de Suisse. After his great debut in the race last year and he marvelous performance at last year’s Vuelta a Burgos, the Colombian had already proved that he can match the best climbers in the world and he confirmed his potential by beating the Quintana brothers in a Tour de San Luis stage earlier this year. Already last winter he made the Tour de Suisse and the Vuelta his two big goals for 2016 so there was little doubt that he was going to be on fire for this race after illness had marred his spring.

 

However, everybody had probably expected to make the difference on the climbs and the time trial was clearly the big obstacle that would probably prevent him launching a realistic bid for the victory. After all, he has never been even close to victory in a time trial before and everybody expected him to be on the defensive in today’s time trial. If anyone had been brave enough to put some money on Lopez beating Cancellara in a TT with lots of flat roads, the reward would have been massive. It was the most unthinkable outcome that tiny Lopez would beat the Swiss powerhouse in Davos.

 

Of course Lopez was helped by the weather changes but he still beat several specialists who were riding in similar conditions. Andrew Talansky did just as well as expected and had probably expected Ion Izagirre to be his biggest threat. However, he now goes into the final stage with an 8-second deficit and the high mountains are where the Colombian is usually most comfortable. He can console himself with the fact that Lopez cracked when he last led a race in Burgos. Back then, everybody had expected the Colombian to win the queen stage but he was unable to follow the best after his teammate Rein Taaramae had ripped the race to pieces in the queen stage.

 

At the same time, Izagirre again confirmed why it is a wise decision for him to focus on one-week stage races. The Basque has shelved his grand tour ambitions and has decided to focus fully on the shorter stage races. With overall victory in the Tour de Pologne and podiums in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Tour de Romandie, he is now on the verge of adding a podium spot in Suisse to his growing palmares. His great time trialling skills make him tailor-made for the hilly WorldTour race where medium-length, lumpy TTs are often crucial. He can just regret his bad day in Cari which cost him the time that would have allowed him to start the final stage in yellow.

 

The small time gaps are exactly what the organizers hoped for when they designed the course. By having a short mountain stage with two big mountains on the final day, they have given the riders the terrain to try to shake things completely up. History shows that these short stages are usually extremely aggressive and suited to long-distance attacks. As the stage comes on the final day, there will be much less to lose and more riders are willing to take risks. If one adds the bad weather as an important factor, the scene is set for a true war.

 

Unfortunately, the bad weather could have an impact on the stage. At the moment, it seems that it will be raining, not snowing on the climbs, but if snow has fallen overnight, the organizers may be forced to change the course. We will base this preview on the assumption that things can go on as planned but the riders would wake up to the news that modifications have to be made.

 

Lots of teams will try to put Astana under pressure. They only have six riders left and only Michele Scarponi is a climber. The veteran could very well be the only rider at Lopez’ side very early in the stage and the Italian really has to find his Giro legs to help his young teammate in what will be a very difficult stage. With a long downhill finish, it will be war right from the beginning as everybody wants to have riders in the break as they can become valuable in the finale. That means that we will have lots of attacks in the first part and it will be very difficult for Astana to control things. Like in the first two mountain stages, we are likely to get a very big break and if the break goes clear on the Albulapass, it will be made up of some excellent climbers.

 

We are very interested in seeing how Tejay van Garderen will approach the stage. He was here to win the race but lost it all in Amden. He is now seventh on GC but he wants more than that. The same goes for Simon Spilak who is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and never afraid of attacking. He loves the bad weather and we won’t be surprised if those two riders attack already on the Albulapass. This will put Astana and Lopez under pressure but if such a move is launched he is likely to get some help from Giant-Alpeci and Movistar that have more climbers than Astana.

 

If we get these long-distance attacks from the GC riders, the stage will probably be so fast that the early break will be brought back. If not, it could be a bit of a waiting game until Flüelapass. It is hard to see which team should control the break. Astana won’t as they would be pleased to see the bonus seconds disappear. Giant-Alpecin would like the bonifications to come into play but they are unlikely to be strong enough to keep a strong break in check single-handedly.

 

Unless the GC riders attack from afar, we expect the best riders from the breakaway to stay away while the GC riders will have a war on the final climb. Here we can expect attacks from Warren Barguil. Andrew Talansky will probably use Joe Dombrowski to set a hard pace. He is less comfortable with attacks but is a master in gauging his effort. In the mountain stages, he has always been suffering on the lower slopes but near the top he has been one of the strongest. That’s the strategy he will use again and it could pay off, especially if Lopez gets stressed out by the attacks and tries to follow everybody in the finale. It is definitely possible for both Barguil and Talansky to take the overall victory on this stage. However, the descent is not technical and as there will be a cross-headwind, it will be more suited to a group. Hence, there will be time for a regrouping to take place and there will be room for riders to get back in contention.

 

As said, we will put our money on a breakaway and we have big confidence in Vasil Kiryienka. The Belarusian is in the form of his life and has often proved that he knows how to win from a breakaway. He has done so on numerous occasions in the past and with Geraint Thomas no longer in contention for the win, he will have the freedom to attack. These long, gradual climbs suit him really well and he is also comfortable in the bad weather and in the flat start. Yesterday he proved that he can handle the altitude and if he rides like yesterday, it won’t be easy for anyone from an early break to follow him on the final climb. He can’t sprint so he needs to arrive alone but with the form he has, he is definitely strong enough to do so. Kiryienka is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Darwin Atapuma has already won a stage but he would love to take another one. He doesn’t seem to be fatigued yet and as van Garderen is no longer in contention for the win, he will have a certain amount of freedom. He has proved that he is a master in getting into right breaks and he can handle bad weather and likes the altitude. He has proved that he has matured tactically and he is even pretty fast in a sprint.

 

Tiesj Benoot is a classics specialist but in this race he has proved what he already showed in the Dauphiné last year: that he can climb very well in the high mountains. He may not be able to go with the attacks but he knows how to pace himself on a long climb. That’s important in a stage like this and he is famously known for his love for bad weather. If it had been an uphill finish, it would have been difficult for him to win but here he will be very hard to beat in a flat sprint.

 

Natnael Berhane is riding better than ever. He may have been able to follow Atapuma in stage 5 if he hadn’t wasted so much energy. Yesterday he had bad luck to puncture on the lower slopes of the climb but he bounced back with a great ride, passing several riders on the climb. Furthermore, he is fast in a spirn tso the downhill finish should suit him.

 

If it comes down to battle between the favourites, Jarlinson Pantano is our favourite. The Colombian is in the form of his life and just seems to get better and better. He likes the altitude and can handle the bad weather. As he showed yesterday, he is one of the best climbers and if the GC riders will fight for the win, it could very well come down to a small group sprint. Pantano is able to mix it up in reduced bunch sprint so he should be the fastest.

 

His biggest rival in a sprint finish is Rui Costa. The Portuguese is not a pure climber but he has defended himself really well. These climbs are less steep than the ones of the last two mountain stages and that suits him much better. On the easier gradients, he has been one of the strongest and he is the riders most likely to challenge Pantano in a sprint. Furthermore, he has lost a bit of time so if he attacks in the flat, final section, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Ion Izagirre won’t have the same degree of freedom so he has to wait for the sprint. However, that’s not a bad plan for the Spaniard as he is pretty fast too. He excels in bad weather and is one of the best descenders in the peloton. His form is clearly on the rise so he should be close to the best on the climbs. If it comes down to a sprint from a group, he will be one of the favourites,

 

Warren Barguil and Tejay van Garderen have been the best climbers in this race and they may again be able to make the difference on the final climb. As said, we won’t be surprised if van Garderen even goes for the big one by attacking on the first climb and he seems to be strong enough to finish it off. If he attacks on the final climb, he will have some freedom as he is not an immediate threat.

 

Barguil will be marked heavily but he has been riding really well in this race. He could team up with van Garderen if those two riders can get clear in the finale. If that happens, the Frenchman should be the fastest in a sprint so it will definitely be possible for him to win both the stage and the overall.

 

This is Michael Albasini’s final chance to win a stage. The amount of climbing could be a bit too much for him but he has won mountain stages in the past. He is a master in winning from breakaway and he likes the bad weather. Everybody knows that he will win if it comes down to a sprint so the long descent should suit him well. He has probably been saving energy for this stage for the last few days and he will be every eager to get into the break in his home race.

 

Jan Polanc won a mountain stage at last year’s Giro d’Italia. He knows how to finish a long-distance attack off and after a slow start to the year he has really found his best form. The Slovenian was in the break in stage 5 where he came up short but since then he has just become stronger and stronger. He is pretty fast in a sprint and his 15th place in the queen stage proves how well he is riding.

 

Victor de la Parte confirmed his excellent form in today’s time trial and he has been one of the best on the climbs. He lost some time in the rain on stage 3 which is why he needs to gain more than three minutes to move into the top 10. His current 13th place is not worth much so there is really no reason not to try to attack. The Spaniard will be one of the best if he makes it into the right break.

 

His teammate Jan Hirt has finally found his legs after a slow start to the race. He was flying in the queen stage, just like he was in 2015 when he got a breakthrough in that same stage. He is far behind in the overall standings and is clearly comfortable with the altitude. However, he is not fast in a sprint so to win the stage he has to get rid of his rivals.

 

Pieter Weening has already won a stage but he will definitely try again. The Dutchman has often proved that he is one of the best in winning from a breakaway and he doesn’t mind the bad weather. His form has been outstanding since the Volta a Catalunya and he is still riding strongly. Unfortuately, he is not very fast so he needs to make the difference on the climbs.

 

Finally, we will point to the Katusha pair of Matvey Mamykin and Sergey Chernetskii. Spilak can no longer win the race so they will be free to attack. Mamykin is a huge climbing talent who proved his potential in the queen stage and he is always aggressive. Chernetskii is a much more versatile rider who needs to follow wheels on the climbs. He is in great form at the moment and has a lethal sprint which makes him dangerous if he joins the right break.

 

UPDATE: As feared, the stage has been shortened.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Vasil Kiryienka (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Darwin Atapuma, Tiesj Benoot (both from breakaway)

Outsiders: Jarlinson Pantano, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Natnael Berhane, Michael Albasini, Jan Polanc, Victor De La Parte, Jan Hirt, Pieter Weening, Sergey Chernetskii, Matvey Mamykin, Peter Sagan (all from breakaway)